Front situation | The maps show that the fronts have frozen in place

Ukrainian the counterattack has been observed for a month and a half already, but the front lines have barely moved.

HS’s three maps show why the counterattack has not yet succeeded.

Strong defense in front

A big explanation for the slow progress of the attack is that Russia has managed to prepare a good defensive line. Minefields cause harm to the Ukrainian troops, HS fact checker John Helin says.

At the same time, Ukraine has its own problems. Ukraine believes in weapons, and not all weapon systems have been obtained quickly enough.

According to Helin, a big problem is also that the different sections of the Ukrainian army do not play together and the troops do not have sufficient training. Coordination of large forces also seems to be difficult for Ukraine.

Read more: The most important thing for Ukraine is the cooperation of the armed forces: “This side is still limping”

The North binds the troops

Ukraine liberated the city of Kupyansk at the beginning of the counteroffensive of the Kharkiv region in September 2022. The Russians withdrew from the southern city of Lyman on October 2, 2022.

Since then, the front lines have hardly changed. During the current summer, Russia has advanced about ten kilometers from the city of Kreminna to the west towards Lyman.

According to Ukrainian information, Russia has brought 120,000 soldiers to the more than one hundred kilometer long front between Kupyansk and Lyman. Their main goal is to bind the Ukrainian forces so that Ukraine cannot break the Russian lines on the southernmost sections of the front.

Russia has strongly fortified its own stronghold in order to keep the territories of the Luhansk province it has taken over.

Russia annexed the Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson Vladimir Putin and with agreements between regional puppet administrations at the end of last September. The agreements and subsequent changes in Russian legislation did not define the borders of the annexed regions, and none of the provinces is completely under the control of the Russian armed forces.

The battle for Bahmut is still going on

The harshest fighting throughout Russia’s full-scale offensive has taken place in and around Bahmut, Donetsk region.

The battle for the city began a year ago, when Russia, which had captured the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, advanced towards Bahmut and captured it last May. Ukraine’s retreat turned into a counterattack in the summer, but progress has been minimal.

Russia’s goal is to advance through Bahmut to the large industrial cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the Donetsk region. Because of this, Ukraine cannot afford to withdraw from the Bahmut front.

Near the city of Donetsk, the front lines have largely remained where they were at the beginning of the Donbas war in 2014. The coke-making town of Avdijivka has been a front-line town mostly held by Ukraine all along.

Russia’s southern defense has held

Ukraine has been trying to break through on the southern front throughout his counterattack but has not succeeded.

The western focus has been south of the city of Orihiv, where the Ukrainians have tried to break through the Russian defense lines with at least three offensive lines.

So far, Ukraine has managed to advance only about 7–8 kilometers in the Orihiv block. The goal has been to advance to the Russian-fortified city of Tokmak and from there to Melitopol, the most important city in the Russian-occupied area.

The eastern focus of Ukraine’s attack has been south of Velyka Novosilka, from where Ukraine is trying to advance all the way to the port cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk on the shores of the Sea of ​​Azov. Progress has been very painful.

Ukraine’s access to the shores of the Black Sea or close to it would be decisive, as it would cut off the east-west supply connections of the Russian forces. Russia’s massive fortifications and mining have so far made Ukraine’s intentions null and void.