Foreign Policy | “Don’t play the flattery game” – US experts give advice to Finland in case of Trump

How Finland should act in a situation where the former president of the United States, the Republicans Donald Trump would rise to power again in the November elections?

Among other things, the US experts were able to answer this question at the Helsinki Security Forum organized by the Institute of Foreign Affairs on Saturday.

The US elections are fast approaching, and Europe is nervously waiting for their results.

Max Bergmannan expert at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank (CSIS), advises Finland and at the same time the rest of Europe to, among other things, consider their attitude towards the common European debt to finance defense and security needs.

Bergmann is the director of CSIS’s Europe, Russia and Eurasia program.

He says in an interview with HS that Trump’s election would mean a crisis for European security.

Europe should be stronger.

NATO is not disappearing, but Finland and Europe should prepare for the Trump era by building a European pillar of security and defense. It can only be done through the EU in cooperation with NATO, says Bergmann.

“It means that the EU must really move and do things, it must leverage its economic potential in a way that [Italian entinen pääministeri] Mario Draghi has introduced.”

Bergmann refers to either joint debt or, for example, expanding the EU budget for security and defense purposes.

War has an economic side, Bergmann reminds.

Now the foreign and defense ministers are on the move in Europe because of the war, but not the finance ministers, he says.

Bergmann asks where is the additional European budget to support Ukraine.

“Where are the 60-100 billion Europeans? If this is an existential crisis for Europe, the rhetoric is fine from the defense ministers. There are no actions by finance ministers,” he says.

European total support to Ukraine was in the first half of the year of the chapters of the Kiel Institute according to greater than the United States. However, as an individual supporter, the United States is in a class of its own.

Bergmann says that the EU has done a lot through, for example, the EU Peace Fund. Many countries have also increased their own defense investments to the two percent of GDP required by NATO.

However, it has not been enough, the war in Ukraine continues. It also won’t help Europe fill its stocks if the US elects Trump and withdraws its support from Ukraine, he estimates.

“If that happens right now, Ukraine will be in a terrible situation, and Europe will not be able to do what the United States is doing. But Europe could if it worked,” says Bergmann.

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“If you’re going to take on debt in response to a pandemic, but you’re not going to take on a response to war, I question your priorities.”

Bergmann adds that the individual support of countries such as Finland or Germany is significant, but the EU can act more unitedly.

In his opinion, Europe should focus more on how the money is used to defend Europe, instead of individual states’ defense investments.

“And that requires, I believe, a lot more joint funding,” he says.

According to Bergmann, it is not necessary to start strengthening European defense with the construction of European integrated armed forces.

Instead, more joint EU procurement of ammunition and equipment should be done. They should also be jointly financed.

in Finland in particular, the common European debt has traditionally been treated with quite a lot of reservations. Bergmann would think about priorities.

He reminds that the EU also took on joint debt during the pandemic.

“And if you’re going to take on debt in response to a pandemic, but you’re not going to take on a response to war, I question your priorities and I question what you care about.”

Bergmann estimates that Trump’s election could mean, for example, that the US military presence in Europe would decrease.

He might withdraw his forces from Europe, as he was already doing in his previous season. Talents that could be useful in Asia could also be drawn away from Europe. It could be, for example, air defense.

He might also reduce the role of the United States in NATO.

Bergmann sees it as a nightmare scenario that Trump would, for example, not appoint the commander of NATO’s forces in Europe, Saceur. Saceur is the one who would lead NATO’s military operations. He also serves as the commander of US forces in Europe.

Finland and other European countries should work with Trump with as unified a message as possible and be strong, says Bergmann.

He says that it happens too often in NATO that countries try to praise the United States a lot and, as it were, “kiss the ring”.

This sort of royal bowing does not appeal to Americans, he implies.

“We look at it and it kind of weakens Europe in our minds. We think that Europeans are kind of weak and they – of course – like us because they are so dependent.”

American Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Research at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Kori Schake believes that if Trump were to settle in the White House, countries like Finland and Poland would be tempted to break away from the rest of Europe.

“The beauty contest of who Trump really likes and who he is decent to is going to be pretty intense among Europeans. The Trump administration is working hard to exacerbate those dividing lines,” Schake assessed in the Helsinki Security Forum’s panel discussion on Saturday.

He also thinks that European countries should play in the same team.

If the Europeans agree, it is much more likely that the countries will get the Trump administration, or at least some of its moderates, to understand European views.

Former Ambassador of the United States to Finland Derek Shearer give advice on how not to act:

“Don’t go into the flattery game, you know, buying him gold-plated golf clubs and stroking his ego, because that’s not really going to get you anywhere. It’s embarrassing for countries that do that,” he said during a panel discussion on Saturday.

He reminded that Finland will continue to be a member of NATO and this relationship will deepen. Finland conducts military cooperation, which will not disappear anywhere.

According to Shearer, Finland can also deepen its diplomatic relationship with the US states.

Many countries have signed with states or cities. It can be about things like climate change, for example.

“Find things where you can work with the American people and where you don’t have to go through Washington and the Trump administration.”