The heads of state and government of the EU today in Brussels will discuss a wide range of topics. None are particularly difficult, on paper, but thediary is loadedbecause they are numerous. Opportunities for discussion among leaders should not be missed. The latest draft of the conclusions, which is still subject to change, provides for 44 pointscompared to the thirty of the first, divided into eight chapters: Ukraine, economy, security and defence, migration, China, external relations, Eastern Mediterranean and ‘other topics’. The events of last weekend in Russia with the abortive armed insurrection of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group, are not formally on the agenda, but will be “the elephant in the room”explains a senior EU official, and leaders will certainly talk about it.
The agenda foresees the arrival of the leaders starting at 12, the beginning of the Council at 13 with a working lunch with the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, followed by the usual speech by the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola. Next, the Council members will discuss Ukraine, with thevideoconference speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. At dinner, they will talk about migration and external relations. Under this chapter we talk about Tunisia: the signing of the memorandum of understanding announced by Ursula von der Leyen with Giorgia Meloni and Mark Rutte, explains the senior official, is very close (“We are a few centimeters away”) and it was the Tunisians to ask for a little more time to study it.
On Friday morning, there will be the strategic discussion on China (the conclusions on this are the major change from the initial draft), followed by the economy, defense and security. One should not expect particular decisions, as in all European Councils, but a series of political indications that will act as a ‘kick-off’ on various issuessuch as the revision of the Multiannual Financial Framework, the reform of the stability pact, and in general on support for Ukraine beyond 2023. The revision of the 2021-27 MFF, also necessary because in 2020 the war in Ukraine was not at views, it will probably take up space in the October European Council, if not an entire extraordinary summit (it has already happened for the QFPs, in particular in February 2020, straddling the ‘patient zero’ of Codogno).
About Ukrainealso in view of the NATO summit in Vilnius where decisions on the strategic-military level will be taken, the leaders reiterate among other things thecommitment to provide “strong financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support” to Kiev “for as long as necessary”. They took stock of the deliveries of “one million artillery and missile munitions” to Ukraine and underlined “the importance of the continued efforts of member states to help meet the pressing military and defense needs” of Kiev. Among other things, it still reads, the European Council took stock of the work “on Russia’s fixed assets” and calls on the Council to “carry them forward”. On this it is possible that there is a discussion, “I don’t know how animated”, among the leaders, predicts a senior EU official.
The President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen he announced a proposal before the summer break, probably aimed at putting an income on the approximately 200 billion euros of frozen assets at the Russian central bank, using the proceeds (not the capital) to help Ukraine. Some countries are cautious, for good reason. Investing funds involves risk, so it remains to be seen who will bear responsibility in the event of any losses. Not to mention the concerns about possible damage to the international role of the euro: If a frozen bond is returned to its private owner of the yields it has produced in the meantime, the freeze has turned into something very different. In short, what appears to be a “simple” proposal has “several side effects”.
One possibility that is being worked on is tax the companies that own those assets and make profits from them. It is likely that it will be decided to proceed in line with the decisions of the G7 partners: if the EU were to make a leap forward on this, it would risk repercussions on the economic level. On economic issues, the leaders should take stock of the “progress” made in the areas of “industrial policy, the single market and Europe’s long-term competitiveness and productivity”. Among other things, the need to “rapidly address the risks and opportunities of the specific uses of artificial intelligence (AI)” is underlined, and the Council and Parliament are invited “to promptly complete work on the law on AI”. The co-legislators should also “expedite work on the proposed Net Zero Industry Act and Critical Raw Materials bills” to reach an agreement before the end of the legislature. They also call for “urgent measures” to ensure “sufficient production” of the most critical medicines and components in Europe and to “diversify international supply chains”.
There Italy’s ratification of the Mes is not part of the ‘menu’, nor did it emerge as a topic in the preparatory work: it cannot be excluded that some leaders talk about it, but it is not part of the agenda. Interest rate hikes by the ECB are not part of it either, but these too could be mentioned in the discussion. In addition to setting the review of the progress made to strengthen the EU’s competitiveness for March 2024, the European Council underlines “the need to strengthen the economic security and resilience of the Union and to reduce strategic dependencies”.
The Council is then invited to “carry forward i work on the review of economic governance“, i.e. the reform of the stability pact, in view of the “conclusion of legislative work in 2023”. Ministers are also asked “to carry forward work without delay on the proposal for the revision of the Multiannual Financial Framework” 2021-27. It is recommended the “rapid” adoption of the ASAP, the plan to support the production of arms and ammunition, and the Commission is invited to present a proposal for a “European defense investment program (EDIP)”, in order to ” strengthen the capacity and resilience of the European defense technological and industrial base”.
In the field of migrations, expresses “deep sorrow” for the shipwreck off the Peloponnese and, “building on the progress achieved so far, the European Council invites work to be intensified on all lines of action and invites the Council and the Commission to continue to monitor from close and to ensure the implementation of its conclusions”. The European Council “will return to the matter if necessary”. It is possible that the discussion on migration will lighten up, because Poland has been badly burned by the qualified majority agreement reached in the Council on compulsory solidarity (in various forms: relocation, money to be paid into a fund managed by the Commission, technical assistance to Country under pressure): it refers to the conclusions of June 2018, in which it was undertaken to proceed by consensus. But the other countries have an easy game and observe that the conclusions of the Euco, as the European Council is called in jargon, however authoritative, do not go beyond the EU treaties, which on these issues provide for the possibility of voting by qualified majority. Which happened in Luxembourg, putting Poland and Hungary in the minority.
On China, the discussion between the leaders will be delicate, as views among member countries differ. It is possible that they talk about it behind closed doors, with cell phones outside the room. In the draft of the conclusions, the 27 reiterate among other things that Beijing is “simultaneously a partner, a competitor and a systemic rival”. The EU is concerned about the “growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait” and opposes “any unilateral attempt to change the status quo with force and coercion”. Since it is a permanent member of the Security Council, Beijing is being asked to “push Russia to stop” the war against Ukraine and to “immediately, unconditionally and completely withdraw” its troops from the country it has invaded. It also declares its intention to reduce “critical dependencies” and “vulnerabilities”, including for value chains, by reducing risks” and “diversifying”. The EU does not intend to “decouple” or “close itself off”.
For the other external relations, there is talk of the preparations for the EU-Celac (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) summit on 17 and 18 July, which will be important because it is the first for eight years, and the “episodes of violence in northern Kosovo “, warning that “failure to ease tensions will have negative consequences”, inviting the parties to commit themselves to decreasing tension. There is a point dedicated to Tunisia, on which the leaders will have “a strategic debate”. We therefore “welcome” the “mutually beneficial” comprehensive partnership package to be agreed with Tunis,” based on five pillars covering economic development, investment and trade, green energy transition, migration and interpersonal contacts”. There is also a point dedicated to the Western Balkans, which reaffirms the “full and unequivocal” commitment to the “prospects of EU membership” for these countries. This point was requested by Italy and other countries, to counterbalance the conclusions on the European perspective of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, reaffirmed in points 11 and 12 of the draft. The countries of the Western Balkans, which have been waiting for a long time, to varying degrees, fear being ‘overtaken’ by the three former Soviet countries in the EU accession process.
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