“21 years in power are more than enough, that’s enough. Erdogan has to go.” Unlike many of his compatriots, Taskin Yilmaz has no qualms about saying that he has voted for the Social Democrat Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the main rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the crucial elections that take place this Sunday. At the gates of the Turkish consulate general in Berlin, this 73-year-old retired Siemens worker summarizes in one sentence what he expects from the elections: “Now there is no democracy in Turkey. I think Kiliçdaroglu is the one to bring her in.”
Germany concentrates the largest Turkish diaspora, with three million people, of whom approximately one and a half million have the right to vote. The country is experiencing the electoral campaign with great interest, with daily coverage in the press and primetime interviews on public television with the leader of the opposition. Turks make up the first minority in Germany since, in the 1960s, many emigrated to the Central European economic powerhouse, then in full industrial development, in search of employment. The calls spendbeiter (literally, guest workers) ended up settling and raising their families in Germany, where the young are now the third generation.
Opposition parties have denounced that Erdogan has mobilized huge resources in Germany for the electoral campaign, including the 900 mosques controlled by the Turkish state. Unlike 2018, when the Turkish president visited Cologne, on this occasion there have been no campaign events on German territory. Nor have large facilities such as sports stadiums been enabled. Turks have voted in only 17 points, mainly consulates spread across the country. The turnout is much higher than in previous elections, Ambassador Ahmet Başar Şen told public television, above 50%.
The vote of the Turks abroad, which ended on Tuesday, is being followed with great attention from Ankara. Despite the fact that some experts believe that its impact is limited, since it is only 3% of the total, these elections are different from the previous ones. For the first time, Erdogan is not the favorite after more than two decades at the helm of the country. The polls indicate that the result will be very tight. Every vote counts. And the German Turks, who have mobilized like never before, are well aware of this. “I don’t watch the news from there, I don’t follow what happens too much, but we have all come in my family. It is very important for the future of the country,” says Mustafa, a 22-year-old student, in front of one of the two huge Turkish flags that decorate the fence outside the consulate. Many take photos and selfies upon arrival, which they immediately upload to their social networks.
That 3% of voters abroad – 2.5% in Germany – can make a difference this time. But, as Jens Bastian, an expert at the Center for Applied Turkish Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), warns, they would have to vote almost unanimously for a single party or candidate, and he does not believe that this will happen. “Traditionally, the majority of Turks in Germany have voted for the AKP. [el partido gobernante]”, he explains, in an interview with EL PAÍS. “But this time there may be a split of the vote and many people vote for the party, but not for Erdogan,” he adds. Both parliamentary and presidential elections are held on Sunday.
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Yilmaz has crossed the city from his neighborhood, Kreuzberg, to the east, where a good part of Berliners of Turkish descent live, to vote at the consulate, located in Charlottenburg, on the western limit. This Tuesday is the last day, and the transfer is constant. Some 100,000 Turks can vote in Berlin. After 50 years in Germany and having raised his three children here, he says he feels as much a German as a Turk, or at least feels like he is at home in Berlin. The adaptation, at first, was not easy, he admits, and of course there were times when he felt discriminated against. Learning German was decisive for his integration, he recounts. In Germany he votes for the Social Democrats of the SPD, “the party that defends the workers.”
Citizens living abroad have been able to vote since 2014, when Erdogan changed the law to allow it. Until now, the president had clearly had the German Turks on his side. In the 2018 elections, 52.6% of the Turkish population voted for the AKP leader while in the Central European country that percentage rose to 64.8%. This is a German particularity, which is not repeated in other countries. In the United States, for example, he only got 17% of the vote. In the UK, 21%.
contradiction between vows
The media often wonder about the apparent contradiction hidden in the preferences of the Turkish-Germans. While in Germany they vote or would vote preferentially for the Social Democrats or the Greens, when it comes to their country of origin they choose the ballot for the AKP, a religious and conservative party. “You have to take into account where the Turkish migration comes from. They are people from different parts of the country, with different educational and cultural levels and different family ties. In Sweden, for example, many Kurds live, who generally do not vote for the AKP. The Germans came mainly from eastern Anatolia, a highly religious rural region, and the first generation has passed these influences on to their children,” explains Bastian.
“The Popular Republican Party (CHP), as a left-wing party, receives more support in urban centers and in middle-class environments, groups that are underrepresented in the migration process. In addition, the AKP is better organized in Germany and is better able to mobilize groups of voters”, adds Yunus Ulusoy, from the Center for Turkish Studies and Integration Research Foundation at the University of Düsseldorf.
Many Turks also associate the development that their country has experienced in recent decades with the figure of Erdogan: infrastructure, health reform, competitive companies and international trade. Although now the Turkish president can no longer play that card. Rampant inflation, skyrocketing unemployment and the devaluation of the lira, the national currency, have left young people without prospects.
Sala, 25, and Gizem, 26, are part of this new generation of Turks who emigrate to work. Gizem’s parents grew up in Germany, but returned to Turkey, where she was born, who is now going the other way to find a future. “Kiliçdaroglu is one of us, a man of the people, she understands us,” she says in English. He has been in Berlin for less than a year and is learning German. Gizem nods next to her. “I just graduated in Türkiye and I didn’t have many prospects there. I hope they give me the residency and in the meantime I study a master’s degree and do manual labor for hours. Without German I can’t aspire to more for now ”, she assures. The political situation in Turkey, the lack of freedom, also influenced her decision to leave her. She is now afraid that Erdogan will not recognize her possible defeat. “The tension is maximum in my country, it is very polarized and violent acts are feared,” he laments, and assures that his compatriots are very aware that it is a decisive moment for the future of the country: “These are crucial elections, the most important of this century”.
Another of the explanations for the support of the Turkish-Germans for Erdogan has to do with identity and the feeling of belonging. “When the elections come around, many remember that they are Turks and not citizens of Germany. They vote based on preferences, desires and anxieties that exist in Turkey, but which reflect what they have experienced in Germany: often discrimination, a feeling of being a second-class citizen,” Bastian points out. This happens, he adds, even if they have socialized in Germany, speak German and are interested in German political life.
“Erdogan revalues identity characteristics such as being Turkish or Muslim, which tend to have negative connotations in Germany and are associated with experiences of discrimination. This also creates an attitude of protest against the public demonization of the president, which motivates some to vote for him”, says Ulusoy.
In front of the consulate, many voters prefer not to reveal who they have supported. “I voted for democracy”, some say in passing with a half smile. Others just excuse themselves. A couple leaves angry because they have not been able to vote. They were not on the lists. Sarp is the only one of the dozen respondents who admits to having voted for Erdogan. He is 31 years old and lives “on business” between Berlin and Turkey. “The type of business doesn’t matter,” he answers mysteriously when he is asked what he does. The president seems to him a strong man, a leader, and he says that he does not see that leadership in the other candidates. “It has no competition,” he says convinced.
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