In a historic contestthe governorship of the most populous, most industrialized state and with the largest budget for Mexico is disputed between two women. The State of Mexico, a crucial link in the Mexican political landscape, has previously served as an electoral laboratory for the rest of the country, but now its relevance has increased exponentially given the radical alternation of power that has occurred since 2018 and its possible continuity or brake. Given this, the behavior of the political arena of the state, in which Brunette leads according to polls published this week, it may be a determining factor for the electoral process of 2024.
Since the beginning of the electoral campaigns, a significant advantage has been reported, of approximately 20 percentage points of the Morena candidate, Delfina Gómez, over Alejandra del Moral, candidate of the once hegemonic Institutional Revolutionary Party. At the end of this week, the survey carried out by the newspaper Reforma showed that the Morenista candidate leads by 10 points over her opponent, with 55% of the electorate’s preferences. In this way, the situation is shaping up to tinge the state with the possible victory of Morena for the governorship. However, it should be noted that on June 2 the Electoral Court of the State of Mexico sanctioned Morena for using false surveys for commercials Delfina Gomez.
Empirical teaching has made it clear to us that in election times polls are not determinative. A recent example of this behavior were the elections in Mexico City, a city with an extremely complex social fabric in which polls showed that the opposition would win 2 mayoralties, and finally achieved victory in 9 of 16 mayoralties. As Ana Paula Ordorica said so well on her Broojula program, quoting a phrase from The Economist “polls are like a lighthouse and serve more as a support for a drunk than as a lighting tool.” Finally, what determines the result is citizen participation.
Today we will know with certainty what will happen in this election where the Mexicans, in their great responsibility of being Mexican twice by country and province, as he said Ale del Moralwill greatly influence the process towards 2024.
However, regardless of who wins, we can make the following conjectures and forecasts:
First, the result of the election of the State of Mexico will have a direct impact on the presidential election processparticularly in the position of Morena and her corcholata preferred; if Morena has a landslide victory, the president will have more freedom to promote his favorite choice for the next contest.
Secondly, there is the future of the PRI, which will depend directly on the results obtained today, losing this stronghold would be a devastating and demoralizing blow for the right, even if they retain Coahuila. The PRI’s dependence on the PAN will be consummated.
As for having a woman at the head of the State of Mexicorepresents an opportunity to break gender stereotypes and promote democracy. Which further paves the way to familiarize the psyche of Mexicans with the figure of women ruling from positions of great responsibility until a woman governs Mexico in 2024. It would be a great achievement for the country’s democracy to break this paradigm, without However, as Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum expressed, “it is not only a matter of gender, but of the nation’s project.” Being a woman does not guarantee good governance, but it is a step towards gender equality and having a government project that promotes the well-being and development of the nation.
The participation of the middle class and young people will also be a determining factor, since it has been proven that they make up the biggest party that it is: abstentionism. To achieve your vote we would be evolving our democracy and also measuring your electoral spirit before. Therefore, it will be a great indicator for the parties to define their candidacies. Regarding this, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard proposes in his National project to reduce inequality and expand the middle class in Mexico.
Finally, facing a close election in the State of Mexico and a PRI victory in Coahuila, we could consider it a sign of the weakening of Morena’s brand, which could cause the party to make strategic decisions when choosing its candidacies.
The result of the elections in the State of Mexico will have great repercussions in the near future of Mexico, since the consequences will affect decision-making at the national level for the 2024 process.
The currency is already in the air and the result will determine the chips that will be on the political board and the rules of the game for the battle for the presidency of the Republic.
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