Editorial|The working group preparing the population political program focuses on the birth rate in accordance with the government program. It is also necessary to start preparing for population decline.
PThe government led by etteri Orpo (kok) grasped the changes taking place in Finland’s population, when a working group started preparing a new population policy program in the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health. The group focuses on the birth rate in accordance with the government program. The goal is to find “concrete measures” to promote the birth rate by next year’s midterm rush.
The background of the work is clear and does not surprise anyone. The total fertility rate, which describes the number of children, was 1.26 in 2023 in Finland. The level is the lowest during the statistics started in 1776 and predicts a decrease in the population. The birth rate is falling rapidly in other industrialized countries as well, but Finland is ahead of most of the population in terms of population aging.
In prosperous countries, the fertility rate has been below the recurrence limit of 2.1 for a long time. In March in The Lancet published research according to the report, the decline continues, also in poor countries. The study predicts “wide-ranging economic and social effects”, when the working-age population decreases rapidly in rich countries, children are born especially in poor countries, and immigration is hoped for as a solution to the equation. A subtle problem like climate change requires a comprehensive approach from the decision-makers.
The proposals of the Finnish fertility group are worth hearing, but you shouldn’t expect too much from them. Ways to increase fertility have been sought in different parts of the world, usually with poor results (HS 28.3.).
The previous government census According to the survey, the number of children is reduced by a bunch of worries related to financial, social support, relationship and rhythm of life called “perceived insecurity”. Prosperity has changed the thinking about life everywhere.
Ecertainty can be affected, and the fertility group is also considering this. However, uncertainty is also created by the uncertain population outlook itself. The overall picture and scenarios of what kind of Finland will emerge from population changes are incomplete.
For individuals, it’s about services, pensions and property. If the population shrinks, there will be even fewer buyers for apartments and summer cottages and the doors will be closed. That would mean a decrease in the value of the real property. of the Pension Security Center in a fresh barometer 70 percent of the respondents said they trusted the pension system, but only a third felt that the pension guarantees a reasonable living in the future.
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Children are not just tools of the economy.
Experiences of uncertainty easily create a cycle that feeds on itself. The prospect of a declining population fuels uncertainty, and uncertainty does not encourage having children.
Regarding the picture of the situation, the population forecast published by Statistics Finland in October has been loaded with expectations, especially with regard to future immigration. That too is just a mechanistic calculation, but despite its shortcomings, it can start a wider discussion about population policy.
Ballitus’s attempt to find concrete ways to reduce the birth rate is good, but the threat is that a broader approach to population changes will be missed. At least the fear of political tensions related to immigration should not prevent a wider discussion. The feeling of uncertainty for both individuals and companies planning long-term investments will only increase if the grasp of the megatrend remains fragmented.
Children are not just economic tools and population growth is not an end in itself. However, the population equation is genuinely so uncertain that it would be worthwhile to turn our attention from combating the phenomenon by sub-region to scenario work and the overall picture. In addition, it is already necessary to think about how Finland will adapt to the probable decrease of the population. It means difficult discussions about, for example, the future of care, social security and immigration. Those discussions must be held in time.
The editorials are HS’s positions on a current topic. The articles are prepared by HS’s editorial department, and they reflect the journal principle line.
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