Infections on the rise in Portugal, UK, France and Germany, led by Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants
Omicron sub-variants increasingly contagious, even if (as far as we know) no more aggressive than the previous ones. Infections on the rise in some European countries, Portugal in the lead, and not only (South Africa). Are we on the eve of a new wave of Covid? Some elements would suggest optimism (for example the hot season and widespread immunity), while others may be a cause for concern (the very high diffusion capacity of the sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5, the decrease in protection of vaccines after a few months from boosterthe gradual abolition of all restrictions put in place during the pandemic).
Dwindling surveillance
The
Financial Times
analyzed the data relating to infections and hospitalizations for Covid, noting that hospitalizations have increased in several countries, including France and England. The sub-variant BA.5 is advancing rapidly and in Portugal would be responsible for 80% of new infections. Even in Germany, where hospitalizations have been increasing for over a week, BA.5 is spreading. Another factor on which various experts warn is the downsizing of the number of swabs performed and surveillance activities, which could compromise the ability to identify new mutations of the virus with the risk that health systems will end up under pressure again, as happened in the previous waves.
Immune escape
Piotr Kramarz, scientist at the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), said that BA.4 and BA.5 exhibit immune escape characteristics that are likely to make them dominant. Neither vaccines nor previous infections are sufficient to stem them. The two sub-variants do not appear to cause a more serious disease than the previous ones, and we have evidence that the full course of Covid vaccination continues to protect against severe outcomes. The power of BA.5 evident in Portugal, where in the last month there has been a surge in infections (and hospitalizations): the sub-variant was detected in the country at the end of March and today, according to estimates, responsible for 84% of new infections.
Germany, France, UK
In Germany, hospitalizations have increased over the past 10 days after a steady 10-week decline, although current levels are around a quarter of the peak of the BA.2 variant (in March-April). BA.5’s share of the total number of infections doubled in the last week of May, reaching 10%. Admissions in France are on the rise for the first time since early April and BA.5 increased from 5% to 18% of sequenced cases in the week through May 24. In England, an average of 639 new cases of Covid were recorded in hospitals per day, with an increase of 29% compared to the previous week: numbers, however, lower than the peak reached during the wave of BA.2. In addition, there are few, in percentage terms, hospitalized patients who need assisted ventilation. BA.4 and BA.5 also spread to the United States, where they account for more than 20% of all Covid cases.
The situation in Italy
In Italy too, the Gimbe monitoring confirms an increase in the contagion curve: the data from 8 to 14 June say that in seven days there was an increase of 32.1% (160,751), and an increase in deaths of 6.1 % (416). Ordinary hospitalizations (-3.3%), and those in intensive care (-16.4%), on the other hand, dropped slightly. Also on the vaccine front there has been a slowdown: almost 5.4 million people have been discovered and the fourth doses are stable at 38.2% for the immunosuppressed and at 18.1% for the other frail. The start of the holidays, the reduced use of masks and the drop in vaccine protection could push a new wave of summer infections in Italy too, in advance of the one expected in autumn, which will most likely still supplant the flu epidemic – warns Fabrizio Pregliasco, medical director of the Galeazzi Institute in Milan -. I expect up to 100,000 infections a day detected by the bulletins, but hopefully without serious consequences on hospitalizations, since most of the people vaccinated or infected, have acquired some immunity. However, the mathematical models indicate a further growth trend for the next 3-4 weeks.
June 17, 2022 (change June 17, 2022 | 13:23)
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED
#Covid #hospitalizations #increase #Europe #face #summer #wave