There have been many memorable trials in American history. But few had aroused as much interest as the one that is about to begin this Monday in a New York court where Former President Donald Trump was accused of falsifying his company's accounting records to hide his alleged extramarital affairs with Stormy Daniels.a porn film actress and Playboy magazine bunny.
And the reasons abound. To begin with, it is the first time that a former president of the United States will sit in the dock in a criminal process that includes prison as a possible sentence. But, even more so, because it involves a person who has been selected by his party – the Republican – as a candidate for the next elections and who could well be the next president of the United States starting in January of next year.
To add, and this is a rather local angle, The judge in charge of the process – and on whom Trump's fate largely depends – is Juan Merchán, a Colombian born in Bogotá who emigrated to the United States when he was very young.
The trial, which could last eight weeks or more, will begin with the selection of the 12 people who will make up the jury, all residents of New York state. A routine process of American justice, but in this case it is immensely complex.
Finding 12 people who have no conflicts of interest and who can be impartial to someone as well-known and controversial as Trump is a nightmare.
“Finding 12 people who have no conflicts of interest and who can be impartial to someone as well-known and controversial as Trump is a nightmare,” says Margaret Bull, a criminal justice expert at John Jay College.
According to Bull, the selection itself could take weeks, since lawyers have the right to veto potential jurors if they detect any hint of prejudice during previous interviews.
The matter is so delicate, that Merchán made the unusual decision to keep the names anonymous to avoid possible threats against him.
Once this procedure is completed, the process will begin, which will begin with the presentation of charges by the New York Prosecutor's Office, and then give way to Trump's defense.
The Court will meet four days a week (Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday). And during all that time, the former president will have to attend in person. Although there will be no television cameras documenting the proceedings, journalists will be able to report in real time via their cell phones.
And although Trump has a “gag order,” which prevents him from attacking witnesses, jurors and other members of the court, it is taken for granted that he will use social networks and daily press conferences to question a process that he has classified as a “witch hunt” against him.
The first of four criminal proceedings against Trump
The trial that begins this Monday against Trump is considered the “least serious” among the four criminal proceedings that have been opened against the former president in the last year (another two for interference in the 2020 presidential elections and one for extracting classified documents from the White House).
But, as things are going, it seems to be the only one that will be resolved before the November elections. Largely because the former president and his team of lawyers have managed to confuse the course of the other three to prevent them from reaching this stage of trial in the near future.
That said, Merchán's case could have an enormous impact on the course of the current electoral race. Which is why the former president tried until the last moment to derail his start.
Although experts agree that the judicial processes have ended up benefiting him politically – at least among the base of his party, where they are seen as political persecution -, Trump is aware that a conviction in New York could sink his presidential aspirations. That, at least, is what the polls suggest.
According to a new measurement by Politico-IPSOS, almost 40 percent of independents and up to 10 percent of Republicans would not vote for the former president if he were found guilty. In an election as close as the one anticipated in this cycle (the polls at this time indicate a tie), such numbers would be fatal for Trump.
The evidence in the case against Trump for payments to Playboy bunnies
Although the outcome of the case is uncertain, The accusation presented by Prosecutor Alvin Bragg seems solid and supported by testimonies and documents.
Bragg, who filed 34 charges against him, alleges that, in the summer of 2016, when Trump was already the candidate chosen by the Republicans for that year's elections, he ordered that $130,000 be paid to Stormy Daniels and another $150,000 to Karen. McDougal, a Playboy model, so that they would not reveal details about her alleged extramarital affairs.
The payments were made by his lawyer Michael Cohen using funds from his own pocket (in the Daniels case) and through American Media, a company that owns several US tabloids.
Subsequently, Trump returned the funds to Cohen – plus fees – through monthly disbursements that were made from the accounts of the Trump Organization, his company, and which were presented to the treasury as “representation expenses.”
Which, according to Braggs, constitutes a clear violation of the New York state tax code, since the nature of the payments was “whitewashed.”
The prosecutor also alleges that the falsification of accounting records had an electoral objective, since this sought to hide sensitive information for potential voters and, therefore, it also amounts to a violation of the financing regulations that govern electoral campaigns. .
Bragg's main witness is Cohen, who had already pleaded guilty to this same crime. But he also has the checks that were made out to him and the testimonies of Daniels and McDougal, who could be called to testify in the process.
Although their stories are already known, Daniels says she had sexual relations with Trump in 2006 and McDougal has spoken of a 10-month romance, it would be embarrassing for the president if they were recreated in great detail.
The former president not only denies the relationships, but also that the payments to Cohen were improper. And the argument of his lawyers has always been that if Trump paid it was to spare his family the embarrassment of those accusations.
Although Trump faces a possible sentence of up to four years in prison if convicted, Few believe Merchán would deprive him of his freedom since the former president does not have a criminal record and is 77 years old.
But, regardless of the verdict reached by those 12 jurors, their sentence – to a large extent – will be handed down by the more than 150 million voters who will go to the polls in six months.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI – EL TIEMPO Correspondent – Washington
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