Press
In the USA there is talk of a new “axis of evil”: Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran have moved closer together. They are united by a common goal.
Suddenly the “axis of evil” is back: more than 20 years ago, then US President George W. Bush coined the term to justify his war on terror. North Korea, Iran and Iraq were working together to harm the USA, Bush claimed after the trauma of September 11, 2001. Now the unfortunate term is having a second career – to describe an alleged alliance between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
Leading US Republicans such as Nikki Haley and Mitch McConnell claim to have identified an alliance of the four autocracies, a new “axis of evil”. Their alleged goal: to break the hegemony of the USA.
In fact, the rulers in Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang and Tehran dream of a new world order in which the USA no longer has the sole say. Xi Jinping, Wladimir PutinKim Jong-un and the Iranian mullahs want to turn the international system on its head, they undermine its institutions and break its rules. They reject values such as human rights and democracy and propagate an authoritarian model of rule.
The four states do not form a formal alliance, and their cooperation is mostly bilateral. But they have recognized that they can achieve their goals better if they work together. In doing so, however, they often get in each other’s way. China is concerned about the new closeness between Russia and North Korea, and Beijing is also wrangling with Moscow for influence in Central Asia. Iran and Russia, in turn, are competing for buyers for their oil. Until recently, China and Russia also U.N.-sanctions against Pyongyang. However, the Ukraine war has brought the four autocracies closer together again. An overview:
China and Russia: “an instrument in the hands of Putin”
For US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, one thing is clear: “Russia would have a hard time sustaining its attack on Ukraine without China’s support.” Washington accuses China of supporting the Russian war of aggression with goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, such as armored vehicles, drones and microchips. In fact, trade between the countries rose to a record high of 240 billion US dollars in 2023; Chinese companies are also filling the gaps left by the withdrawal of Western companies – and are exporting cars to Russia, among other things. At the same time, China is buying cheap gas and oil from Putin.
Things also seem to be going well between Putin and Xi on a personal level. In May, the two presidents met once again in Beijing, their 43rd meeting. Shortly before the war in Ukraine began, Xi and Putin had assured each other of their “rock-solid” friendship. Most recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had previously refrained from criticizing China, accused the Chinese of being “an instrument in Putin’s hands.”
Russia and North Korea: Weapons and ammunition for the Ukraine war
Last late summer, Kim Jong-un left his country for the first time since the outbreak of the corona pandemic. His trip took him to Russia’s Far East, where he spoke with Putin about planned armaments projects, among other things. A little later, Pyongyang succeeded in sending a spy satellite into space for the first time – probably thanks to Russian help. It had already become known that North Korea was supplying the Russians with weapons and ammunition in large quantities, which were also used in Ukraine War Among other things, Russia fires ballistic missiles made by North Korea – for Kim, Ukraine is a kind of test laboratory to observe how his weapons work in war. During a return visit by Putin to Pyongyang in mid-June, both sides signed an agreement on mutual defense.
Moscow and Pyongyang have also grown closer diplomatically since the beginning of the Ukraine war. Most recently, Russia blocked the extension of a mandate for a group of experts in the UN Security Council that had previously monitored the UN sanctions against North Korea.
China and North Korea: Allies who distrust each other
North Korea needs China: For the isolated regime of dictator Kim Jong-un, the large neighbor in the north is the most important trading partner; the government in Pyongyang imports food and fuel from China. Conversely, China also needs its small neighbor. For Beijing, North Korea forms a buffer zone between its own territory and South Korea, where around 28,000 US soldiers are stationed. Two years ago, Beijing blocked new sanctions against North Korea for the first time in the UN Security Council; most recently, Beijing’s number three visited the isolated country. Observers expect that Xi Jinping and Kim could meet this year for the first time since 2019.
However, Beijing is very concerned about the North Korean missile and nuclear programBallistic missiles that the Kim regime has tested keep landing in waters off the Chinese coast. Beijing is also worried about a nuclear escalation in its immediate neighborhood. China also fears a collapse of the Kim regime, because then millions of refugees would probably cross the border into China. Beijing views the increasing cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow with suspicion – China fears that its influence over Kim could wane.
Iran and Russia: Cooperation despite sanctions
According to reports, Iran has delivered hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia since the beginning of 2024, and Putin is also said to be using thousands of Iranian drones in the Ukraine war. In addition, both countries are said to be working together to build a drone factory in Russia. Conversely, Russia is helping the mullahs to modernize their own army – often by circumventing international sanctions. For example, Russia has sold Iran modern fighter jets and air defense systems that would help Tehran defend itself against a possible military operation by the US or Israel. The Biden administration therefore speaks of an “unprecedented defense partnership” that has developed between the two countries in recent years.
China and Iran: Hunger for oil
At the beginning of the year, the BRICS alliance of states grew: At Beijing’s urging, the association, which previously included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, admitted four new states, including Iran. In addition, the Mullah regime became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization dominated by Beijing in 2023 – a massive upgrade for the isolated country.
China is the main buyer of Iranian oil and the country’s most important trading partner. However, Chinese investments in Iran are low, to the frustration of Tehran. It is also unclear what influence Beijing has on the regime. When the Iran-backed Huthi rebels began attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea, Chinese ships were spared, but Beijing was unable to bring about an end to the attacks.
Iran and North Korea: Cooperation between two pariahs
A few weeks ago, a North Korean delegation set off for Iran – it was the first time in a long time that the country’s state media reported on such a trip. North Korea’s Minister for Foreign Trade had traveled to Iran, it was reported at the end of April, but no details were made public. As is the case, much goes on in secret between the nuclear power North Korea and the Mullah regime, which has been pushing ahead with its own nuclear program for years – possibly with the help of Kim Jong-un’s scientists.
North Korea has also reportedly sold weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist organizations closely linked to Iran, in the past. In December, the Israeli military said North Korean weapons had appeared in the Gaza Strip. The Houthi rebels, also allies of the mullahs, are also said to have received weapons from North Korea. There are also reports that North Korean weapons are being delivered first to Iran and then to Russia, before being used on the battlefields in the Ukraine war.
#China #Russia #Iran #North #Korea #alliance #autocrats