Joe Biden’s poor performance reduced bets on his re-election chances to 19.2%
The bets for Donald Trump winning the US presidential election rose to a peak of 54.8%, according to data from CPR (RealClearPolitics). As for the American president’s chances, Joe Biden, dried up. Only 19.2% believe that the Democrat will be re-elected to the White House. The reason: his poor performance in the debate on Thursday (June 27, 2024) against the Republican.
Before the clash in CNNthe 81-year-old Democratic president had a 35.7% chance of a second term, according to the betting market average measured by the RCP.
On the other hand, bets on Trump winning the presidential race increased from 51.7% on Wednesday (June 26) to 54.8% this Friday (June 28).
The North American president’s performance in the 1st presidential debate worried the Democratic Party. During the debate, Biden appeared wavering and confused at several moments. He also demonstrated weakness and was unable to finalize his thoughts, as when he dealt with immigration and Medicare, a US healthcare project.
Bettors are more optimistic about the chances of other Democratic names becoming the party’s presidential candidate in 2024 in Biden’s place, although some analysts consider the current president’s replacement unlikely.
However, this Friday (June 28), the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, rose to 10.8% in the bets, while vice-president Kamala Harris reached 4.5% – tripled compared to the pre-debate.
Even though he is participating in the pre-campaign debates, Joe Biden is not yet the party’s official name for the presidential elections. This will only be decided after the Democratic National Convention, held in August. The president has priority for having won the electoral primaries, but can be replaced.
UNDERSTAND
In the USA, electoral rules are different from those in Brazil when it comes to defining who the candidate for president is. Brazilian law gives full power to the party to choose a name at a national convention. In the North American system, this is done only after the candidate himself has obtained support in each of the 50 States.
According to US rules, those interested in running for president must compete locally for endorsement in the 50 states, through a complex system of local preliminary elections. Biden has already received this support to have his name included on the ballot in the November 5 contest. This means that the Democratic Party’s decision to try to change the candidate at this point becomes more difficult. In addition to having to convince Biden to leave the presidential race, it would be necessary to regain state support for the new eventual candidate for the White House.
A choice that could seem natural would be that of the current vice president, Kamala Harris, a 59-year-old liberal politician who made her career in California. However, Harris is seen by voters as excessively left-wing. She has shown lower popularity in polls than Joe Biden. In other words, the Democrats have little time, a lot of uncertainty and no name yet clearly qualified to be a candidate for president in Biden’s place in November.
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