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In 2023, the AfD’s local election successes shocked the country. Will this be repeated in the local elections? It seems possible.
The Thuringian state election in September is already attracting worried glances from all over the country – after all, Björn Höcke’s regional association, which the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as right-wing extremist, is leading the polls. This is not the only reason why the local elections in the state on Sunday (May 26) are attracting exceptionally high interest. Much greater interest, in any case, than the regular election of mayors, district administrators and district councils would suggest.
In June 2023, an AfD politician was elected district administrator for the first time in the south of the state. It is difficult to say whether similar cases will follow due to a lack of survey data. Pierre Zissel, political scientist at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, sees in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA However, there are signs of opportunities for right-wing populists and extremists.
Local elections in Thuringia: “People who support the AfD are the ones most likely to feel left behind.”
Zissel is referring to data from the “Germany Monitor”, a pilot project that, among other things, examines the relationships between regional contexts and political attitudes – in particular the importance of a feeling of being “left behind”.
Zissel, who worked on the study, states: “It became quite clear that people in economically weak regions share this feeling much more often.” This can apply to both rural and urban regions. Those affected are significantly more dissatisfied with the way democracy works. But above all: “People who are behind the AfD are the most likely to feel left behind.”
This finding could be relevant for the local elections this weekend: According to the “Thuringia Monitor 2022”, respondents in many Thuringian regions feel left behind by politics and people in the rest of the country. Although the regional differences are small, Zissel names the focus areas as “the south of Thuringia with the district of Sonneberg, Saalfeld-Rudolstadt, Saale-Orla district, but also the Kyffhäuser district in the north”. A quite remarkable ranking.
AfD puts up posters like Sesselmann in Sonneberg again: “Elected out of resentment”
In the Saale-Orla district and Sonneberg, it has already been shown that the AfD in Thuringia has the electoral potential for municipal success. In Sonneberg, AfD representative Robert Sesselmann won the runoff election for district administrator in 2023; At that time, warnings were circulating about an AfD “triumphal procession”In the Saale-Orla district, the CDU representative Christian Herrgott only narrowly won the second round against his AfD opponent in early 2024.
Like Sesselmann did back then, the AfD is now once again putting up posters in the local election campaign in the state capital of Erfurt with general slogans such as “there are only two genders” or “our city, our rules,” as Zissel reports. “I think the AfD is aware that it should not play on personalities in the local election,” says the political scientist, “but that it is really being elected out of resentment against refugees, against the party landscape, perhaps even against the political system itself, not because of specific local political issues.” Other parties are apparently more likely to rely on their local candidates.
Wagenknecht’s BSW plays little role in Thuringia’s local elections
Unlike in the upcoming state elections, the AfD will hardly face competition from the BSW. In September, Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party could play a major role – possibly even as a majority provider. In a survey conducted by the Infratest dimap institute for the mp3 In March, it was estimated at 15 percent. According to Zissel, the situation looks different at the weekend. “The BSW is still almost completely absent from the local elections,” he says. One reason for this is that Wagenknecht’s alliance does not (yet) have the necessary number of members to be present across the board.
On the other hand, at least locally, the AfD could lose votes from other extremist groups. In the city of Gera, which is also characterized by a “collective experience of decline,” according to Zissel, “actors from the obviously right-wing extremist spectrum are present.” There are very active “Monday walkers” there who first mobilized against the Corona policy, then against support for Ukraine and the accommodation of refugees. “There is now also a mayoral candidate from this milieu, Yves Berlinghoff, who was finally approved for the election after some back and forth, and is running alongside four others.”
Thuringia could face explosive run-off elections: “Liberal-Conservative” versus “Right-wing to Right-wing Extremist”?
Zissel believes that it could ultimately come down to a possible run-off election on June 9. Many top positions in Thuringia’s local politics could be awarded between “liberal-conservative” and “right-wing to right-wing extremist”.
At the same time, the expert warns: The results of the local elections on Sunday will probably not allow any direct conclusions to be drawn about the state elections in Thuringia. In small communities, local lists are predominantly running, and voting behavior at the local level is often more person-oriented.
However, another effect of the local elections on the state elections seems possible: the AfD could try to “normalize” itself through seemingly harmless local politicians. When asked, Zissel at least does not rule out this theory: “Sesselmann, for example, does not appear to be a demagogue.“ At the same time, district administrators cannot overturn democracy due to the limitations of their office. This realization could, it seems, disappoint some voters – but wrongly lull others into a false sense of security. (fn)
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