The new Israeli government has carried out a three-front offensive in recent weeks. Two of them diplomatic, one of them belligerent, but all linked to the same context: the resumption of negotiations for a new nuclear agreement between Iran, the USA and the European powers. Furthermore, the actions of the Israeli government may also be linked to a change in Middle East relations.
First, last week, on December 9, the Israeli Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, visited Egypt. According to the Israeli government formation agreement, Lapid should be prime minister in 2023. Relations with Egypt are symbolic and important for Israel. Symbolic because Egypt was the first Arab country to normalize relations with Israel, in 1978.
Important as it is with Egypt that Israel shares the borders with the Gaza Strip, and both governments are enemies of Hamas, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, the main domestic antagonist of Egyptian military dictatorships. In recent years, Turkey has also become a common adversary, as the Ankara government supports the Brotherhood and, consequently, Hamas.
Lapid’s visit was marked by a gesture of rapprochement, the return of some ninety Egyptian historical artifacts that have been confiscated by Israeli law enforcement authorities in recent years, especially in Jerusalem antiquities markets. Lapid met with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, his counterpart Sameh Shoukry and also the head of Egyptian military intelligence.
Cooperation
The two governments talked about cooperation in “security, diplomacy and economics”, according to Yair Lapid. These three items mean more specific things. In security, the agenda was the aforementioned Hamas and also an eventual joint response in relation to Iran, since neither country wants Tehran to have nuclear weapons. Diplomacy means dialogue with the Palestinian National Authority, as Egypt advocates a two-state solution with Palestine, as long as without Hamas.
Finally, in economics, the main common objective is energy cooperation, especially with the discovery of natural gas fields in the Mediterranean. Both Egypt and Israel have energy challenges and a common solution could be economically interesting. That was also the topic of conversation between al-Sisi and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett three months ago at a resort on the Red Sea.
Bennett who, last Monday, became the first Israeli prime minister to be received by the main leader of the UAE, Mohammed bin Zayed, in Abu Dhabi. The two countries normalized their relations last year, with the Abraham Accords, mediated by the United States. In this case, the agenda was Iran first. And in second and third place too.
There are two interesting aspects to this relationship, apart from the mere rivalry with Iran and the common position of not wanting the Iranians to develop nuclear weapons. Here in our space, two years ago, we wrote a series of texts about the rivalry between Iran and the Saudis, waging a regional “cold war”. In the last year, however, the UAE has achieved greater prominence in this dispute.
Arab protagonism
For example, in Yemen, the Emirates and the Saudis have different interests, something that has already been addressed in our space and, so far, the Saudi government has not normalized its relations with Israel, unlike its neighbors. More shockingly, in recent days, “leaks” have emerged indicating talks between the Saudis and Iran. Surprisingly, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan confirmed the talks.
He, however, denied that a “secret summit” was held in Amman, Jordan, with the Jordanian king as mediator. Some sort of agreement between the Saudis and the Iranians would have a huge global impact, both by reducing tensions in the region and, certainly, by involving a common policy in relation to oil, the main product of both economies and something that affects the global economy.
This is not to say that the Saudis accept a nuclear Iran, a position reaffirmed yesterday in a joint Saudi-Egypt declaration. Still, for Israel it would be a bad scenario to see a historical rival and the current rival normalize their relations and, in that logic, the UAE replaces the Saudis as Arab leaders of a larger anti-Iran front. This is what Israel seeks, and in this partnership are two elements. The first is the economic one, as the trade flow between Israel and the UAE has grown and has great potential.
The second is the armamentist. On the one hand, Israel would be prepared to sell advanced anti-aircraft systems to the UAE. On the other hand, on the 15th of June, the Emirati government notified Washington that it could suspend a massive arms contract worth more than $20 billion that includes the brand new F-35 fighter jets. They are the same ones who are leading the crisis between Washington and Ankara, as the US government suspended the delivery of fighter jets after Turkey acquired Russian anti-aircraft systems.
The official Emirati justification was that the US security requirements are too onerous. It is plausible, however, to speculate that there is Israeli involvement in this. Israel maintains its technological primacy in regional warfare and, in compensation for the contract freeze in the Emirates, provides defensive weapons to its “new allies” against Iran. Israel.
air attacks
The third Israeli front was late at night, carrying out air strikes against southern Syria. It is the second Israeli air strike against targets in Syria in a week, as the country attacked targets in the port of Latakia days ago. The port is known to be used by Iranian ships in support of their allies in Syria, especially the Shiite group Hezbollah. It was the first time an air attack on the port was publicly reported, and it is speculated that the destroyed cargo consisted of Iranian drones.
Most likely, the new attack was also against targets of Iranian origin, such as equipment or ammunition shipments. Officially, Israel adopts a policy of opacity in relation to air strikes. It neither denies nor confirms, but it is not necessary to have access to confidential intelligence reports to conclude that Israel is the only country with the means and interest to carry out this type of attack.
Over a ten-day period, the highest levels of the Israeli government held summits with two Arab neighbors, all driven by their common antagonism to Iran. In the same period, it carried out air strikes against Iranian targets in Syria. The Israeli message is very clear that its government will work to contain what it sees as an Iranian threat. It remains to be seen whether these messages are a reaction to possible advances in talks about a nuclear agreement as yet unknown. In any case, the messages were certainly heard, especially in Washington.
The column will take a short break for the next two weeks. We have been together since mid 2018 and I wish you a great end of the year and a great 2022 for all readers. See you again in the first week of January!
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