Vladimir Putin is not currently making any harsh words or threats towards Ukraine: the Kremlin chief is playing for time in the Ukrainian offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk. Experts expect Putin’s “revenge” later.
Kursk – While the offensive of the Ukrainian army in the western Russian region of Kursk continuesit has now also managed to land a spectacular blow in southern Russia. According to official reports, a ferry loaded with fuel tanks caught fire and sank in a port in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar due to Ukrainian fire. According to the district administration, there were a total of 30 tanks on board the rail ferry. This fits in with the picture of the past few weeks, in which Ukraine has put the Russians in astonishing difficulties. But what happens next?
No harsh words: Putin’s silence on the Ukrainian advance
“The situation has evolved”: This is how Vladimir Putin has described the surprise advance of the Ukrainian army since August 6 in the Russian region of Kursk, where the Ukrainians say they now control 92 towns and more than 1,000 square kilometers. “That is his usual reaction in such situations,” explains Russian political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann, referring to the bad news for the Kremlin. “He disappears until the situation has calmed down and then acts as if everything is normal.”
Putin delivered his harshest response to the Ukrainian attack yet in an unexpected place – to three mothers who lost their children in an Islamist attack on a school in Beslan in the North Caucasus in 2004. During a visit to mark the anniversary, he compared Ukrainian troops to the Islamist attackers and promised to “defeat these criminals.”
Meanwhile, reports on the humanitarian situation in Kursk predominate on state television. The television images show people being evacuated from their homes, as well as the volunteers. There is hardly any anger about the rapid advance of the Ukrainian troops or criticism of the slow Russian reaction, explains Alexander Gabuew, head of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Research Center in Berlin.
Perception of the war among the population
After 30 months of war against Ukraine, the Russian population has become accustomed to reports of gains and losses by its armed forces, according to experts. Nevertheless, the attack on Russian territory was “painful, as can be seen from the reactions,” Gabuev stressed. There is a difference “between the loss of Russian territory and the loss of conquered territories” in Ukraine.
However, Gabuev suspects that the attitude towards the war will not change nationwide. “I don’t think this kind of defeat is big news for the Russian elite or the population,” he explains. The Ukrainian advance is “simply perceived as part of the war,” agrees political scientist Tatjana Stanovaya. “It is not noticeable on a nationwide level.”
Possible military reaction: Occupation in Kursk could last “for months”
The Russian army currently has few military options on its own territory. “Putin will not bomb the Kursk region like he bombed Bakhmut,” Stanovaya explains, referring to the city in eastern Ukraine that Russian troops occupied last spring after a long siege and heavy losses. The Ukrainian occupation of Kursk could therefore last “for months.”
Experts assume that the Kremlin is currently weighing up the options for a counterattack. The Russian president usually takes his time when making such a decision. “Sooner or later we will find out how Putin will take revenge,” warns Gabuev.
Negotiations unlikely: Putin will only end the fight on his terms
According to its President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine wants to use the offensive to strengthen its position for possible negotiations. However, the attack has changed little in the Kremlin’s attitude, says Stanovaya. Putin will only stop the fight “on his terms.”
Meanwhile, there are signs among the Russian population that support for a negotiated solution has grown. Surveys from the past six months show “a paradoxical situation,” explains Schulmann. “At the same time, those surveyed say: ‘We support everything, the special military operation was justified – but it must be ended.'”(Mike Schier)
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