Guest pen|International pressure for peace negotiations, where concessions are expected from Ukraine, may increase already in the near future.
in Ukraine has been wrested from peace since Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and fueled the separatists’ activities in eastern Ukraine. The Minsk agreements concluded in September 2014 and February 2015 did not bring peace or even a lasting ceasefire, and the war of positions continued. The agreements were buried in the scrap heap of history with Russia’s large-scale attack in February 2022.
In the early stages of the war, Russia and Ukraine sent their delegations to Belarus for “quick” peace negotiations. Negotiations continued in Istanbul and remotely. The Russians demanded the surrender of Ukraine, even though in the spring of 2022 the Ukrainians managed to repel the Russians’ plans to subjugate the entire country to their will.
The Ukrainians had no reason to trust the sincerity of the Russians demanding the reduction of the armed forces, when Ukraine lacked international security guarantees comparable to the fifth article of NATO. In addition, Ukraine’s military capabilities strengthened by international support shine a light on the belief that concessions that already undermine the possibility of lasting peace are not necessary.
Although Ukraine succeeded in repelling Russian plans to suppress the country’s independence, hopes of Ukraine’s chances of achieving a complete military victory over Russia have weakened. In the protracted consumer war, size matters. The international support Ukraine has received has not been enough to expel the Russian troops from Ukraine. Russia’s resilience to losses has surprised.
As the war dragged on and the frontline situation stalled, both Ukraine and Russia have expressed that they are ready to negotiate peace only on their own terms. Both practically require the surrender of the other party.
The parties the willingness to negotiate is mainly influenced by the perception of power relations and their development.
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Both require the surrender of the other party.
In Russia, there is hardly any willingness to make significant concessions if the government believes that it can improve its positions by continuing the war. Ukraine’s demands for a just peace are morally understandable but unrealistic when Russia occupies almost a fifth of Ukraine. As the underdog, Ukraine should not negotiate peace terms where territorial concessions and restrictions on the right to self-determination and the ability to defend the country raise doubts about the peace. It explains the Ukrainian attack across the border at Kursk.
In the current situation continuing the war may seem like the best option for both sides in principle, when all the options are miserable. There is no point in waiting for a negotiated solution as long as the parties have the will and ability to continue the war.
Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate is mainly influenced by internal politics. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is dependent on public opinion. According to opinion polls, the majority of Ukrainians support the continuation of the resistance.
Even if the Ukrainians want to continue fighting, they must take into account the demands of the country’s supporters. International pressure on peace negotiations may increase already in the near future.
Like Russia, Ukraine also wants to dictate what will ultimately be negotiated in future peace talks. However, Ukraine, which is dependent on external support, can less afford to appear as an obstacle to peace than Russia.
Ukrainian supporters need to decide as soon as possible whether the best option now is to help Ukraine force Russia into negotiations in which Ukraine must also make concessions, and then ensure that Russia does not continue the war later.
There is also no solution for how the verification works. It is difficult to promise Ukraine credible security guarantees, unless the supporters have a desire to fight for Ukraine.
Ilmari Käihkö is a visiting researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute of the University of Helsinki. Juhani Pihlajamaa is a lieutenant colonel (EVP) who has served as Finland’s defense representative in Russia and Ukraine.
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