Wednesday, August 21, 2024, 11:07
Nothing justifies the invasion of a sovereign state. Neither the US invasion of Iraq nor the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to mention two that have marked this century. The population must be able to decide the direction of its country and the society it wishes to build there, and it is useless to appeal to values such as democracy or denacification to validate their imposition by force. International law is clear and leaves no doubt on this point.
That said, it is clear that sometimes the cure can be worse than the disease. Afghanistan is the best proof of this. Three years have passed since the United States carried out one of the most botched and humiliating exits in history, ending two decades of occupation and tutelage with images unseen since the fall of Saigon, and the Taliban regime has turned the clocks back 20 years. It is what one would expect from a pack of fundamentalist Neanderthals.
So today we focus on the changes that have returned Afghanistan to the caves, and how China and Russia are trying to occupy the space left by their arch-enemy.
These are the three topics we will address today:
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Afghanistan becomes a black hole.
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Government in Thailand is a hereditary affair.
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Monkeypox will not be the next covid.
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Three years of Taliban rule
Afghanistan becomes a black hole
The capitals of Afghanistan and Iran were home to similar scenes in the 1970s: women without hijabs and wearing miniskirts could be seen on the streets of Kabul and Tehran. And not only did they enjoy the freedom to dress, they could also get an education and work. Today, however, it is impossible to take such photos because fundamentalists have taken over both Islamic republics and have relegated women to a mere supporting role: the ayatollah regime has been persecuting women who do not cover their heads since the Islamic revolution of 1979, and for the past three years it has been better to hide under a burka to avoid the scourge of the Taliban.
This is the worst consequence of the shameful departure of the United States from Afghanistan. Shameful not for leaving a country that it should never have entered with blood and fire, but for how that flight took place, abandoning to their fate women and children who have grown up and been formed in values that vanished with the triumphant entry of the bearded men with Kalashnikovs. Since that moment, Afghanistan has become a black hole.
That is what those on the ground say, because many of the statistics that serve to analyse the evolution of the country have stopped being published and it is impossible to compare today with yesterday. Per capita income is one of those that has been collected, and it clearly shows a sharp decline: from the time the US troops arrived in the country until they left, that variable multiplied by four; while in just three years of Taliban rule it has plummeted by 30%.
The civil liberties index, which in 2020 was 14 points – as a reference, Spain has 53 – is now at five and falling rapidly. When it comes to equal rights, Afghanistan has lost everything it has gained in the past 20 years. If in 2009 it reached a record 0.6 – on a scale of zero to one – it is now at 0.23, just six hundredths above what it was when the Americans entered. NGOs that continue to work in the country warn that, in addition to the erosion of freedoms, there is also difficulty in feeding stomachs. Malnutrition and infant mortality are on the rise.
The governments of Afghanistan and Iran also share their hatred of the United States. And there is nothing better than that to align themselves with the authoritarian bloc led by China. Not in vain, Beijing decided this year to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of the country, thus becoming the first country to accept the diplomatic credentials of its envoy to the Asian giant, Bilal Karimi. China has smelled business.
And Russia too. Despite having been at odds for a decade that ended once again with the Soviet withdrawal, the Kremlin is now considering removing the Taliban from the list of terrorist groups, where it has been since 2003. Not because they have changed their ideology or way of acting, but because it is in its interest to do business with them. It is yet another example of the hypocrisy that prevails in all countries of the world, regardless of the values they claim to uphold. It is only a matter of time before even Western governments recognise the legitimacy of the Taliban. This will confirm a maxim that is no less well-known than it is painful: what matters least is the suffering of the population.
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New Prime Minister
Government in Thailand is a hereditary affair
Thailand is one of those countries that often flirts with democracy, but never quite manages to fully implement it. Just when it seems that it will succeed, the military dashes the hope with a coup d’état. And it starts all over again. In this vicious circle, there is one family that stands out above the rest: the Shinawatra family. Specifically, that of Thaksin Shinawatra, a millionaire from the north of the country who founded the Pheu Thai party in 2007 and inaugurated a political saga that is well worthy of a Netflix series.
He has it all: corruption, flight, exile, return, prison, and triumphant release. And that’s just counting the story of Thaksin, whose work as prime minister was memorable for its controversy. Then there’s his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, who came to power after a bloodbath between the red shirts and the yellow shirts and held it from 2011 to 2014.
Curiously, his mandate ended in the same way as his brother’s: with a coup d’état. Both had to go into exile, but Thaksin returned last summer and, although he was sent to prison to serve an eight-year sentence, the king – of whom nothing negative can be said despite being a very careful satrap – commuted his sentence a few days later to another one for one year. Finally, he was released on parole due to alleged health problems.
Now it is Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who is taking the reins of the Asian kingdom, hoping not to end up like her father or her aunt. At 37, she is Thailand’s youngest prime minister and has come to power after several twists and turns in which justice has intervened and in which the will of the voters has been the least important thing. It is the vaunted ‘lawfare’ at its finest.
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Global health emergency
Why monkeypox won’t be the next covid
Last week, the World Health Organization declared an international health emergency due to the outbreak of monkeypox (Mpox) that is spreading across Africa, especially in the Congo. And it is clear that the mutation of the virus, which has made it more transmissible, is worrying. But it is not going to become a new Covid, as some suggest.
Firstly, because most infections between humans occur through mucous membranes or through close skin-to-skin contact, or with objects that act as intermediaries, such as a sheet. Although sexual activity is not necessary – the main route of contact for previous variants -, there does not seem to be a significant number of infections by aerosols – through the air -, one of the main concerns of scientists. In short, it spreads much more difficultly than Covid.
Secondly, because, despite migration, trade with the African continent is much scarcer than with China, both on a personal and commercial level. And finally, one of the main differentiating elements is that there is a proven and effective vaccine. The challenge is to get it to those who need it.
In any case, all this explains why the risk of an epidemic in Europe is ‘low’ despite the fact that cases have already been detected in several countries. For all these reasons, and even though it is summer, it is advisable not to alarm the population, which does not mean that we should lower our guard.
That’s all for today. I hope I’ve explained to you some of what’s happening in the world. If you’re subscribed, you’ll receive this newsletter every Wednesday in your email. And, if you like it, it will be very helpful if you share it and recommend it.
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