By choosing Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential nominee, Donald Trump has cemented the realignment of the Republican Party over the past decade.
Sometimes vice presidential picks help provide a sense of balance, like George H.W. Bush in 1980, Joe Biden in 2008, or Mike Pence in 2016. Other times, they provide emphasis—to highlight the front-runner. That was Bill Clinton’s approach in 1992, when he picked a fellow Southern technocrat from the millennial generation. baby boomerAl Gore.
Vance is a choice of emphasis. In his brief time in the Senate, Vance has become a leading voice for populist policies on immigration, trade, and corporate concentration. If he returns to the White House in 2025, Trump will have only one term in office, and choosing Vance could be seen as a kind of brand extension—anointing a governing partner who could help channel (and extend) Trump’s policy impulses. Deeply invested in public policy, Vance has many allies in the sprawling populist policy network in Washington, D.C., which has long promoted his candidacy.
The past decade of political disruption has both made and ended many political careers. Rising from a 2022 Senate candidate to a Republican vice presidential candidate today, Vance is well positioned to benefit from the populist shift. His Appalachian roots and working-class background represent important pillars of the evolving Republican electorate. His resume also seems designed to appeal to Trump: military service, an elite educational background, business success, celebrity (he is the author of a best-selling book that was adapted into a film) and a social media presence.
Vance’s early criticism of Trump in 2016, since retracted, has been widely documented in the press, but a constant theme of his public career has been concern for working-class Americans. In a article at National Reviewin 2013 (note the year), Vance drew attention to a crisis of opportunity in many blue-collar communities. In the book “Hillbilly Elegy” [‘Era uma vez um sonho’]Vance has often highlighted cultural issues as driving many of these economic outcomes, but as a senator, he has also addressed issues of political economy.
Vance’s career trajectory reflects a broader shift in the Republican Party. Partly driven by shifts in domestic and global politics, many Republicans are thinking seriously about how to reshape the GOP’s policy agenda. The populist economic components of the party’s 2024 platform — from calls for pro-industry measures to a commitment to protecting social benefits — underscore this shift.
Trump’s announcement about Vance highlighted the senator’s work for “American workers and farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota and beyond.” Many of those states were key to Trump’s 2016 victory and could be decisive in 2024. Picking Vance could signal that Trump is focusing on the Midwest as a key battleground. The pick also draws a contrast with President Biden’s reelection effort. A Trump-Vance ticket offers a distinct brand of politics, while the Democratic Party remains divided internally (including over whether Biden should even continue as the nominee).
By consolidating their support among the working class, Republicans have a political opportunity. Vance’s selection could signal that the GOP is serious about crafting a tough agenda that will help American workers. But the party also faces challenges. Many Americans, including many working-class families, are averse to the idea of radical political change. To be viable, a second Trump term may need to emphasize continuity as well as disruption — regime preservation amid reform rather than regime change.
The assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend only underscores the dangers that intense political conflict can pose to democracy. To win over the public, the Trump-led Republican Party must show that it can restore hope and national unity.
©2024 City Journal. Published with permission. Original in English: A Ticket with a Distinctive Policy Brand
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