France to votetoday June 30, for the early legislative elections called by Macron after the disappointing result in the European elections. A defeat that has the exploit of the right and Marine Le Pen in the country. The run-off elections are scheduled for next July 7.
Synthetic programs, which reflect the priorities and main directions of each training, for the four main political groups who will compete: the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), Ensemble, Les Républicains (LR) and Rassemblement National (RN).
AND’ Meanwhile, a record turnout is expectedwith voters showing growing interest in voting. According to a survey conducted by Ifop-Fiducial for Le Figaro, Lci and Sud Radio, which provides final polling station projections based on voting intentions at the national level, participation is estimated at 67% (+3 in a week), or 19.5 points more than in the last legislative elections of 2022.
What the polls say
For now, the Rassemblement National (RN) and some of its center-right allies have around 36% support, while the left-wing New Popular Front group is at 29% and Macron’s liberals have around 21%.
In a month the head of the Elysée lost six points of popularity in a month, reaching 36%, the lowest level since last March, while the president of the Rassemblement national (RN) Jordan Bardella has become the political exponent whose French people trust them more, with 40% popularity. This is what a survey conducted by Toluna-Harris-LCI reports.
The trust that the French place in Prime Minister Gabriel Attal remains stable, at 43%. The ministers are also stable: the most popular among them, the head of the Interior Ministry Gérald Darmanin, gains two points and stands at 35%.
How French Elections Work, The Numbers to Win
Members of the French Parliament are not elected on the basis of proportional representation, but through a two-round vote in 577 constituencies where local dynamics play an important role. In each constituency, if no candidate wins 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates advance to the second round, as does any other candidate who has won the support of at least 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate with the most votes in the second round wins the seat as a member of parliament.
To get through the first round, parties that share a political vision, such as the country’s four main left-wing parties, tend to come together and agree not to pit candidates against each other. Voter turnout matters. In 2022, when turnout was close to 50%, parties needed to win about a quarter of the votes cast to reach 12.5% of registered voters. Voter turnout is expected to be higher in this election, which will make it easier for candidates to advance to the second vote.
National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s party, needs at least 289 seats to gain a majority in the French parliament and at the moment the far right looks set to make big gains thanks to a successful campaign in the European elections. Opinion polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, Politico warns, but Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies could gain between 220 and 260 seats according to current projections. This would be a record increase compared to the 88 parliamentarians they currently have.
If the far right wins a majority in Parliament, the French president would have to enter into a “cohabitation” agreement with the Rassemblement National and appoint a far-right prime minister. Jordan Bardella, the president of the Rassemblement National, has repeatedly said he will not seek to lead a government unless he has an absolute majority. This presumably means he will need coalition partners, unless it is an electoral strategy to secure a large turnout.
The far right has already made an agreement with Éric Ciotti, leader of the centre-right party Les Républicainsto support some like-minded conservatives so that they do not compete with each other in some constituencies. For an absolute majority, however, he would still need to get the support of other LR MPs or the Reconquest party, also far-right, but its leader is hostile to Le Pen. The alliance between the center-right and the far-right is still a major ideological victory for the Rassemblement National, but it has also triggered a strong reaction among those conservatives horrified that the party of presidents like Charles de Gaulle and Jacques Chirac is making deals with the far right.
But how much will Le Pen invest in coalition talks, given her desire to keep her political capital intact ahead of the 2027 presidential elections? If his party leads a government that has a bumpy ride, it could reduce his chances of leading the Elysée.
L’Ensemble, the coalition supporting the French president, includes his Renaissance party, the centrist MoDem and the center-right Horizons party. Ensemble currently controls 250 seats in parliament, but is suffering a decline in support. Current projections see Ensemble MPs falling to fewer than 110 seats in the 577-strong National Assembly, squeezed by both the left and the far right. For the first time, Macron’s coalition is not running as a single party. Horizons, the party led by former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe which has presidential ambitions, is going it alone but could rejoin a coalition after the elections.
Although Macron’s coalition is third in nationwide polls, there is still some glimmer of hope that it will not be completely swept away in the first round. A high turnout means three candidates are likely to advance to the second round in up to 170 constituencies, according to recent projections. This is both a blessing and a curse for Macron’s liberals and the left-wing alliance. The third best placed candidates in the three-way contests dominated by the far right will face pressure to withdraw and rally behind the second best placed to defeat the Rn candidate.
With unexpected speed, France’s left-wing parties have thus put aside their quarrels and united ahead of the vote. Following an agreement, the far-left France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and the Greens are presenting individual candidates in 546 constituencies across France. The alliance, called New Popular Frontis a revised version of the 2022 Nupes alliance, devised by Mélenchon. This time, however, the Socialists are a much more powerful partner following the successful campaign of Socialist-backed candidate Raphael Glucksmann in the European elections. Of the 546 candidates who will represent the new alliance, 229 will be supported by France Insoumise, compared to 175 for the Socialists, 92 for the Greens and 50 for the Communists.
The New Popular Front is certainly attracting voters, with current projections for the alliance to win 180 to 210 seats. True, it needs 289 for a majority, and the left would need to form a coalition if it were to propose a prime minister who would win parliamentary approval. But such calculations will amount to nothing if the Socialists and France Insoumise, who disagree on key issues such as Ukraine and Gaza, fail to put aside their differences. With the moderate Glucksmann and others saying they would never accept Mélenchon as prime minister, that may be a step too far.
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