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The new parliamentary elections in France have left French and Europeans wondering what will happen next politically. An overview of various scenarios.
Paris – What happens after the Early parliamentary elections in France? And what does that mean for Europe? After President Emmanuel Macron after his poor performance at the EU-election, it is not only the French who are puzzled. A lot is also likely to change for the European Union.
For the first time, right-wing populists could gain government responsibility at the national level. And for the first time, there is a risk of an election result in which no camp will have a majority capable of forming a government. Four possible scenarios:
1. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National wins the elections
Should the National Rally (RN) around Marine Le Pen If Macron wins the elections, he would have to appoint a member of the right-wing populists as prime minister. His party would then only have powers over foreign and defence policy. Domestic policy would be the responsibility of the Rassemblement National. RN leads in recent polls with 36 percentbut far from an absolute majority. The exact number of seats for each party will only be known after the second round of voting on July 7.
If an absolute majority is achieved, RN party leader Jordan Bardella will lay claim to the office of head of government. According to the polls, it is unlikely that the Macron camp will create its own majority. This would be the fourth time that France has experienced a cohabitation in which the president and the prime minister come from different camps.
Bardella could, for example, have a say in the selection of the French EU Commissioner. While the seat in the EU Council is reserved for the French President, the European ministerial meetings will be attended by the respective government members – who would then probably not represent the same line as Macron. This would significantly reduce France’s influence in the EU.
2. Election victory of the left-green New People’s Front
The alliance of left-wing populists, socialists, communists and greens agreed surprisingly quickly on a common program and common candidates. According to a recent poll, they are at 28.5 percent. The left-wing parties did not reach agreement on the question of who they would propose as prime minister in the event of an election victory. The left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who expressed interest, was met with fierce rejection by the other parties.
The government program, which includes tax increases, price caps and the reversal of pension reform, also contains potential internal conflict points. For example, nuclear power, which is controversial among some left-wing parties, is not mentioned at all in the program.
3. Caretaker Government
If neither the right-wing populists nor the left-green New Popular Front achieve a majority, Macron could appoint a caretaker government, following the example of Belgium. This could also be the incumbent government. Its resignation is expected after the new election, but is not mandatory.
It would not be the first time that Macron has appointed a little-known politician as head of government. Jean Castex, for example, was a largely unknown mayor of a town in the Pyrenees before his time as prime minister. It is also conceivable that someone without a party membership card could be the candidate. The New Popular Front suggested former trade unionist Laurent Berger, but he initially declined.
4. Resignation of the President
Macron has already manoeuvred himself out of difficult situations several times – for example after the yellow vest crisis or after the protests against pension reform. He has repeatedly ruled out resigning. However, voters are increasingly less convinced by his promises that he will change his style of government.
Macron, who cannot run for president again in 2027, has so far avoided building up a possible successor. possible candidates from his own camp used the short parliamentary election campaign for their own purposes: Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin and former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe visibly distanced themselves from Macron.
But probably no one is as well prepared for a presidential election as the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen, who has already won three presidential campaigns and wants to run again in 2027. If Macron were to one day hand over the reins of office to her, he would have failed in one of the most important goals of his term in office: keeping the right-wing populists out of power in France. (lm/afp)
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