There was a rush to progress towards an agreement, but reality has prevailed. It is not easy to close a political puzzle in a single night. Between tugs of war and some tidbits, the heads of state and government of the 27 member states moved forward this Monday to propose the EU’s senior officials. Whitout deal. The favorites are clear: the German Ursula von der Leyen (popular) to repeat as head of the European Commission; the Portuguese António Costa (social democrat) for the European Council; the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas (liberal), as high representative for Foreign Policy and Security; and Roberta Metsola (popular), to continue one more term at the head of the European Parliament. However, the leaders want to see the German’s agenda and have demanded commitments from her before guaranteeing her support.
The next appointment will be in ten days, when they hope to complete the distribution that will govern the institutions for the next five years, in the midst of a very volatile situation at a European and global level, with the rise of populism and the extreme right and a political climate rarefied, which is accelerating everything.
The favorite cast (Von der Leyen, Costa, Kallas) would respect the political balances — the European People’s Party was the most voted force in the European elections on June 9; and the social democrats, the second—gender and regional. But every political family wants guarantees that they will have good chips in the years to come. Above all, good wallets. Delays would harm Von der Leyen, who may be forced to promise some concessions in exchange for support and give more details of what agenda she wants to follow during her term. “Several leaders want to see the program before accepting the names,” says a senior diplomatic source. “It is our duty to make a decision before the end of June,” launched the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, this Monday night, after the dinner in which the leaders negotiated, without their teams and without cell phones, before a menu based on haddock with Mediterranean vegetables.
As they say in these types of negotiations, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. In fact, the popular party has launched an order by demanding that the second part of the mandate of the European Council (two and a half years of the five) go to someone from their party, for example, to the Croatian Andrej Plenković, explains a source familiar with the matter. of the negotiation. This could be done without forcing the rule, because the treaties indicate that the terms of the president of the Council are two and a half years and can be renewed once. However, the socialists are not willing to give in, the same sources point out. All those who have held the position so far – the Belgian liberals Herman van Rompuy and Charles Michel, and the Polish conservative Donald Tusk – have done so for the two permitted periods, that is, five consecutive years.
Thus, the leaders of the European People’s Party have begun to sow doubts about the socialist Costa, who, however, has the endorsement of the conservative Portuguese Government and its prime minister, Luís Montenegro, of the European People’s Party. Several people raise issues about the court case for influence peddling that affects his closest collaborators and that led to his resignation as prime minister. Costa has not been charged, although the case is not closed. “We need to clarify the legal context,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk remarked this Monday. The Pole has also warned against approaches to the extreme right.
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In fact, the Italian Prime Minister, the far-right Giorgia Meloni – who, however, is part of the extreme right acceptable to the popular ones – has been quite isolated in this Council. The core of the negotiation has been carried out between popular, socialists and liberals, without taking into account the family of the European Reformists and Conservatives (ECR) – of which Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, is a part -, which has positioned itself as fourth force in the elections to the European Parliament. Meloni would have liked to participate in the negotiation. And she was not happy to see herself listed.
“It would be important for this to be decided quickly and expeditiously, because we are living in difficult times and it is important to know what the future holds for Europe,” said Chancellor Scholz. The Danish social democrat Mette Frederiksen, who sounded strong to preside over the Council and who, in reality, is the popular favorite due to her tougher positions on defense and migration, has tried to remove herself from the equation this Monday. “I hope that we reach an agreement soon, because with everything that is happening in the world, it is necessary to hurry up and be a beacon of stability,” he noted upon his arrival at the leaders’ meeting in Brussels, where he also stressed that Von der Leyen has done “a good job” this term.
However, despite the rush, everything remains for the next meeting on June 27 and 28 in Brussels. “Tonight’s meeting was an opportunity to have a deep exchange of views, to be transparent with each other, to share concerns about upcoming priorities and for requests to be heard,” President Michel remarked.
The results of the European elections have confirmed the advance of the extreme right and have left the Franco-German tandem, the traditional driving force of the EU, shaken. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the second political force in these elections, which have dealt a blow to Scholz’s government coalition and the Social Democrats, who have experienced their worst historical result. In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right (National Rally) was the first force in an overwhelming victory that led the president, Emmanuel Macron, to call early legislative elections. These elections have caused great concern in Brussels due to the possibility of elevating the ultras in the EU’s second largest economy.
Leaders will take into account that the person chosen to preside over the European Commission must be ratified in the European Parliament by the majority of MEPs (361 out of 720). In Brussels there is speculation that the conservatives cannot ensure that Von der Leyen has the bloc vote of his own colleagues. Although the leader of the Spanish PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has assured this Monday that the support at the meeting of the European conservatives has been “unanimous” and “without fissures”, the popular ones of France (The Republicans) and Slovenia have already announced that they will not support the German company. This means the escape of 11 parliamentarians. This is a very low figure, but the EPP itself expects that, as the vote is secret, there will be more defections.
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