The negative electoral results of Emmanuel Macron’s allies in the European Parliament – they won just 13 seats – led the president to take the drastic – and risky – step of dissolving the National Assembly, bringing forward the country’s elections to this month.
Macron’s justification was that France needs “a clear majority in serenity and harmony”, a statement in a speech shortly after the first count showing an advantage for the right, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, in the election.
In the French leader’s ideal scenario, his presidency would benefit the left and weaken the right during negotiations with the parties for the parliamentary elections. However, this proposed reality may not come to fruition as he hopes.
This Friday (14), left-wing parties that are part of the “Popular Front” announced their intention to reformulate the alliance without the French leader. The new agreement will be formed by the Socialist Party, the main force of the French center-left; by França Insubmissa; Green Party; and the Communist Party.
The new alliance, announced this Friday, breaks with the policies created by the Macron government, including the controversial immigration and pension reforms.
On Tuesday (11), the leader of the Republicans (LR, its acronym in French), a center-right party in France, had already proposed an unexpected alliance with the right-wing nationalist National Regroupment (RN) party, of Marine Le Pen, for the early parliamentary elections in the country, which will be held on June 30th and July 7th.
If the RN achieves an absolute majority in the election, Emmanuel Macron will be forced to appoint one of its leaders as prime minister, possibly Jordan Bardella – the RN president who guided the right to victory in the European Parliament elections. A day after the provisional results were published, the party’s vice-president, Sébastien Chenu, announced the choice of Bardella as candidate for the post of prime minister, with the right-wing victory.
Constitutionally, the French president does not have this obligation, but if he retreats in this sense, it is very likely that the future appointed government will use the vote of censure to block his governability.
The RN currently holds 88 seats in the National Assembly and would need to increase this total to 289 to hold an absolute majority in Parliament.
Meanwhile, in the last two years, Macron has faced a constant threat with the loss of support in the Assembly, accumulating 250 allied deputies, just a few dozen short of an absolute majority.
To be able to adopt some key pieces of legislation from his administration, including the highly unpopular pension reform, the president and his prime minister needed to use constitutional tools to approve them without the need for a vote in Parliament.
The advance of the right in French internal elections and the retreat of the left could make its parliamentary support even more turbulent and there is no prospect of forming a clear majority.
Macron has repeatedly stated his desire to form a government coalition with the Republicans, an alliance that could bring the long-awaited absolute majority in Parliament. However, the conservative party repeatedly resisted the president’s attempt and, by the Sunday of the European elections, was determined not to associate with Macron in the next elections.
Furthermore, there is the possibility of Macron’s resignation from the presidency of France, something that is unlikely, but was raised by an advisor to the president, who commented on his intention to call early elections to reaffirm his national leadership. “I’m the only one who isn’t risking anything,” said the agent at the time.
According to analyzes by European newspapers, it is not clear whether the end of Macron’s presidency would mean the end of his political career. Although he cannot run for a third consecutive term, he would still have time to seek a third candidacy in the future.
Another possibility with the new elections is that the French president will be able to further increase his powers in the Executive, which is permitted by the French constitution, resulting in the weakening of the Legislative branch.
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