The Russian invasion has put the existence of Ukraine at risk and, at the same time, has put membership of the European Union back in the spotlight. Moscow’s aggression has finally convinced the Ukrainian population that its future lies in integrating into the Union: in the years before the war support for this step was less than 60%; last January it rose to 84%, according to the Razumkov political studies institute. In Brussels, the first large-scale war between States on the continent since World War II has brought down walls on enlargement that hours before February 24, 2022, when the invasion began, seemed insurmountable: after five days, the The European Parliament approved a declaration supporting its entry, and the European Commission is already considering formulas such as gradual integration that overcomes the resistance of the most reticent member countries and gives certainty to applicants that their steps are rewarded.
Solidarity with the attacked country has driven a process that experienced its last significant chapter last December, when it was agreed to open accession negotiations. The movement has benefited, in turn, Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo and Albania) which, in some cases, have had the official status of candidates for years but with the driveway blocked. “We welcome the EU’s renewed attention to the enlargement process due to the sharp and dangerous deterioration of the geopolitical landscape following the Russian aggression against Ukraine. “It has been a wake-up call to do more, faster and differently,” says the Albanian ambassador to the Union, Ferit Hoxha, by email.
This “renewed attention” is definitively demonstrated in the conclusions of the European Council, but it also continues in the number of debates, conferences and documents that have been produced in recent times on enlargement. “We are like the canary in the mine,” says Ignacio Molina, principal researcher at the Elcano Institute, with a touch of irony.
One of these documents, commissioned by France and Germany, has become the reference. It talks about how to prepare the EU for the entry of those nine States (Türkiye is officially a candidate, but nothing more). It is proposed to streamline punishments for countries that erode the rule of law; expand the issues on which the Twenty-Seven can make decisions by qualified majorities and reduce those that require unanimity, including in foreign policy; harmonize electoral laws. “Both the EU and future Member States must be prepared for the prospect of future enlargement of the Union,” it reads. in the declaration that EU leaders approved at the Council held in Grenada last October.
2030, symbolic date
The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, stated that in the legislature that begins on June 9, the EU must prepare to access new members. And he set the symbolic date of 2030. But traveling that path is not going to be easy. “The war created the momentum. “There is unanimity in opening the negotiation, but not in whether they will be members,” warns Molina, who sees it as difficult for the Hungary of ultranationalist Viktor Orbán to give up reducing the issues on which unanimity is required – after all, the used to repeatedly threaten vetoes.
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But ultranationalist and Eurosceptic forces are advancing and that threatens to take the process, once again, to a dead end. In France, where President Nicolas Sarkozy included in the Constitution that any new entry of a country into the EU had to be approved in a referendum, the chances of Marine Le Pen coming to power grow every day and there is little doubt that this would make it very difficult the following steps. In the Netherlands, the new Government, in which the majority force is that of the extremist Geert Wilders, is about to take office. It was precisely there where a popular consultation rejected the EU Association agreement with Ukraine in 2016.
To avoid a repeat of what happened in the past decade with the Western Balkans, another document, this one from the Bruegel Institute, proposes, among other things, that Brussels and the Member States offer clear commitments and a path of negotiation and credible access for the countries. candidates. Reforms are required of them, assuming the community legal acquis, reinforcing the fight against corruption and the rule of law… and there must be some reward so as not to create frustration. “It’s no secret; Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama himself has expressed his frustration at an incredibly slow process, often buried in a bureaucratic fog, against the backdrop of a clear lack of political will on the part of EU Member States. Ten years after Albania gained candidate status […], no chapter has been opened yet. This is very unfortunate. Although we do not consider it wasted time, since we have continued with our national reform program,” explains Ambassador Hoxha.
Risk of frustration
Regarding the risk of frustration among candidates, Oksana Mishlovska, a researcher at the Institute of History at the University of Bern, warns: “High expectations about joining Europe can lead to disenchantment.” A survey by the Rating center assures that 56% of Ukrainians are convinced that in less than five years they will be part of the EU, a very short period for the times of the Union. “Now I see enthusiasm in Ukraine to join the EU, but there is still the feeling that we are not part of the European brotherhood because until the war we were denied this option,” says Leo Litra, researcher at the Ukrainian political studies center New Europe.
“There are politicians in Ukraine who are not managing these expectations well,” Litra acknowledges, “but there are many conditions that go beyond the merits of the candidate country to be accepted, internal issues in the EU that slow down the process, as has happened with Montenegro”. If the accession process lasted more than seven years, indicates the New Europe expert, pro-European sentiment in Ukraine would drop worryingly. Litra emphasizes that the elections to the European Parliament are important because this institution has served on many occasions “as an icebreaker in support of Ukraine when governments did not dare to defend certain measures.” The possibility of the extreme right being the second force in the European Parliament worries Litra.
The combination of delays and frustration can lead to steps back, because as Mishlovska warns, there are concepts consolidated in Europe that are still far from Ukraine: “European values such as inclusive governments, historical reconciliation or respect for national minorities are rejected or not completely accepted. And democratic debate, a central value in Europe, is seen in Ukraine as a weakness.”
Although, at the moment, no one even remotely thinks of Ukraine as one of the countries in which steps could be taken back in integration, something officially possible in the accession process from 2020. This possibility rather points to Serbia and, above all, everything, Georgia. The approval in Tbilisi this week of the law on foreign agents (inspired by a similar Russian one), ignoring the warnings of the European Union, NATO and the protests of hundreds of thousands of Georgians, provides arguments for this .
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