The Prime Minister’s Israel Benjamin Netanyahu faced a diplomatic and legal setback this week that forced the Jewish State to resume an attempt at dialogue with Hamas to stop the war in Loop and, even more telling, he exposed a division of the Western European bloc that traditionally supported him.
(Also read: Israel, the US and Qatar agree to resume talks for a truce with Hamas)
After only three countries took a similar step in the last decade, Spain, Ireland and Norway recognized last Wednesday – something that will be formalized on May 28 – Palestinian statehood, despite vehement Israeli and American opposition. While the majority of European governments offered their unequivocal support for the International Criminal Court (ICC) after it requested arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, along with Hamas leaders.
However, international pressure did not end there. On Friday, heThe International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Israel “immediately stop” its military operations in Rafah, putting Netanyahu’s government in trouble, which considers it essential to invade that town in southern Gaza to defeat the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas.
The ICJ also ordered Israel to keep the Rafah crossing open so that Gazans can receive humanitarian aid “without restrictions” and called for the “immediate and unconditional release” of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas.
On the practical level, the decisions had an immediate impact. On Thursday, Israel’s war cabinet said it would seek to revive negotiations for a truce in the Gaza Strip with Hamas after talks brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the United States It was frozen on May 9 after the truce proposal that was approved by the parties ended with Israel suddenly retracting and withdrawing its approval.
And while the Hebrew country withdrew its ambassadors in Dublin, Madrid and Oslo; As of Thursday, the countries of the European Union (EU) resumed their support for the UN refugee agency in Palestine (UNRWA)questioned by Israel due to the alleged involvement of a dozen of its members in the Hamas attacks on October 7.
(Also read: What real impact does the ICJ ruling requiring Israel to stop its military offensive in Rafah have on the ground?)
Regarding the ICJ decision, although it is legally binding, the body does not have any means to implement them so it is entirely up to Israel to abide by it. However, analysts consulted by this newspaper agree that the Court’s ruling will lead to greater international pressure against Netanyahu and, added to the other actions, reflects a kind of increasingly stronger international isolation over Israel.
Two opposite ways to negotiate
Europe, long a vital source of support for Israel, is heading towards a division of positions regarding the actions committed by the Netanyahu government in Gaza.
“This invites us to think that, even on the western side, where the State of Israel has always had its greatest support, there are beginning to be fissures and points of view that no longer coincide with each other,” Ignacio Gutiérrez of Terán, director of the Department of Arab and Islamic Studies and Oriental Studies of the Autonomous University of Madrid.
“By supporting Israel, countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic can play a decisive role in determining what the European Union can and, especially, what it cannot do when it comes to the Middle East,” he highlights in a analysis Matina Stevis-Gridneff, Brussels bureau chief of The New York Times.
Stevis-Gridneff warns that European countries face growing international and domestic pressure to take a stronger stance against Israel’s handling of the Palestinian territories and, in particular, the devastating war in Gaza.
(You may be interested: Can Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, end up in prison after requesting an arrest warrant from the CPI?)
Precisely, the war in Gaza and the way in which it has evolved is what has caused the European Union, which before the offensive was getting closer to Israel, including through financially and politically important partnerships in trade and science, seems to veer towards different shores.
“On the one hand, we have the large European states, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy, which consider that it is not yet time to recognize the Palestinian State and that this would even hinder a negotiation process. On the other hand, there are countries like Ireland, Spain, Norway and, probably, the most inclined to follow them: Belgium and Slovakia, which consider that, on the contrary, the recognition of the Palestinian State will create a solid basis to bring the positions of the parties closer. ”says Gutiérrez de Terán.
Without going any further, although France has so far refrained from acting on its own, last month it voted in favor of a UN Security Council resolution to recognize Palestine as a full member state of the United Nations. The United Kingdom, no longer part of the European Union but still influential, abstained from that vote.
Stevis-Gridneff adds that Germany’s evolving stance will play an important role in determining the direction of the EU’s relations with Israel.
“Germany is the largest member of the bloc and has long expressed a unique commitment to Israel as a result of its Nazi history and the Holocaust. “Berlin started out on the pro-Israel end of the EU spectrum immediately after October 7, but is now more openly critical of the way Israel is conducting the war and has called for an immediate ceasefire, in opposition to Israel and the United States,” points out, warning that if more neighbors follow suit, “the European Union could become an important counterweight to the American position that the Palestinian state should only be the result of a negotiated agreement with Israel. “That would deepen the gap between Europe and Israel.”
Israel’s true fear
And although the European countries that took the step towards Palestinian recognition know very well that the situation does not predict a near end, the resignation of the Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Authority, Mohammad Shtayyeh, at the end of February makes their ability to govern not only the occupied West Bank – currently with increasingly limited control – but Gaza.
This is why, from Dror Yemini’s perspective, “for the Netanyahu government, whose conception is not to take initiative in anything, what Europe, the ICC and the ICJ will do will be another small blow after many more that it has already received from from countries that, in any case, have no influence on the political process of the region.”
“This recognition will not lead to significant political change. Israel’s main path of international diplomacy lies with the United States and Saudi Arabia in seeking a defense pact between them that includes the normalization of relations between the Saudis and Saudi Arabia. Israel. If Netanyahu loses that option, which may happen, it will be significant.”
For now, the Israeli government stated that the decision of Spain, Ireland and Norway will have “serious consequences” in its relations with those countries that maintain trade and other agreements with Israel, while it studies what response to give to pressure from the ICJ.
However, the sympathetic views that underpinned European support for Israel after the October 7 attacks are waning as the humanitarian situation in Gaza worsens and Israel looks less like a victim and more like an aggressor.
STEPHANY ECHAVARRÍA
– INTERNATIONAL EDITOR – EL TIEMPO
In X: @dulcitodemora
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