Press
Lai Ching-te is the new president of Taiwan. He calls on China to stop the political and military intimidation. A review.
- Taiwan’s new president promises not to give in to China.
- China reacts to the crash of Ebrahim Raisi in Iran.
- Companies are competing AI-Price war. An overview of the week in China.
- This article is available in German for the first time – it was first published on 21 May 2024 by the magazine Foreign Policy.
This week’s highlights from China: New Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te begins his term with a clear message to Beijing; China expresses its condolences after the Death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi; and Chinese companies are engaged in a price war for large language models and other artificial intelligence products.
Taiwan: Inauguration of Lai Ching-te
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, who was sworn in on Monday, called on China to maintain peace in a powerful speech and said he would resist Beijing’s attempts to coerce the country. Lai, who served as vice president under outgoing Premier Tsai Ing-wen, is seen as more radical than his predecessor on Taiwanese independence, although he did make some concessions during his campaign.
China reacts with a certain harshness to even the slightest hint of Taiwan’s declaration of independence. Behind this lie both ideological demands and personal needs: anything that deviates from the extreme language on Taiwan can make an official appear unreliable and damage his career. As a result, China’s official rhetoric towards its democratic neighbor is always full of fireworks.
By these standards, the Chinese response to Lai’s speech was relatively mild, relying on phrases such as “playing with fire” and claiming that Lai had “willfully advocated separatism.” All of these statements are commonplace, and Beijing has not yet responded with increased aggression as it has in the past, such as cyberattacks or airstrikes.
For one thing, China has more pressing problems to deal with, most notably its collapsing economy, making Taiwan a secondary issue for now. Under other circumstances, Lai’s election would have triggered a cycle of panic and reaction on the mainland, but the Taiwanese leader is also significantly constrained by a divided government, with legislative power currently in the hands of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).
Although the KMT’s pro-China elements are sometimes exaggerated, Beijing has influence within the party and may believe Lai is under control. There is an incentive for everyone involved, from KMT politicians to China’s Taiwan Affairs Office and security services, to boast about how successfully they have opposed Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) (which has been the Taiwan Affairs Office’s undoing in the past when it failed to predict the DPP’s success).
Meanwhile, Taiwan has seen major protests this week against the KMT-controlled legislature, which is pursuing bills that would significantly expand its powers, including the ability to hold hearings and punish citizens for non-attendance. Opponents say this provides the opportunity for politically motivated show trials. The KMT is also seeking changes to the Control Yuan, the powerful body of political ombudsmen that has the power to indict officials.
The KMT is also trying to revive the Special Investigation Department (SID), which the Ministry of Justice abolished in 2016. The SID is known for opening the case that led to the imprisonment of the first DPP president Chen Shui-bian on corruption charges in 2009. The SID also prosecuted some KMT politicians, including a complicated case against Legislative Yuan Chairman Wang Jin-pyng in 2013 involving intra-party struggles.
The protests have involved both Lai supporters and civil society groups concerned about the potential expansion of the laws and drawing comparisons to the successful Sunflower Movement in 2014. The demonstrations appear to be primarily about civil society and Taiwan’s values, rather than possible Chinese influence. On Tuesday, thousands of protesters gathered around the Legislative Yuan building – some holding signs reading “I disrespect Congress.”
The bills, whose passage seems imminent, are primarily aimed at allowing the KMT-controlled legislature to undermine the DPP presidency. This may be short-sighted – after all, the DPP could win back the legislature in the future – but Taiwanese politics is contentious. During the debate on one of the reform bills, a brawl broke out in parliament, with one lawmaker literally running away.
Other topics: China reacts to the crash in Iran
Beijing on Monday offered Tehran its condolences over the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash that killed seven other people, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, over the weekend. China also indicated it wanted continued regime stability rather than a power struggle.
Chinese state media raised the possibility of internal disputes but downplayed them, while Chinese President Xi Jinping praised Raisi’s role in establishing “security and stability.” Relations between Beijing and Tehran are very close, as China supplies Iran with repressive tools and is the main buyer of Iranian oil.
The praise for Raisi also reflects how little China cares about global communism when it comes to geopolitics, despite Xi’s revival of communist rhetoric at home. In the 1980s, Raisi served as a judge on one of the impeachment committees that sentenced thousands of political prisoners to death, including Communist Party members. (China’s suppression of Islam also goes unnoticed in Tehran.)
Intrigues on the Pacific Islands
Solomon Islands’ newly elected Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele recently told Australia’s Defense Minister that the island nation is reviewing its security ties as it continues its pivot toward China. Manele, like his predecessor, is a pro-Beijing supporter. Meanwhile, China is trying to build close ties with key local elites in the Philippines, even as the government under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has turned against China.
The localized politics of the Pacific region, combined with the central location of many countries there, make it a particularly intense battleground for Western and Chinese influence. Recently, these tensions were dramatically exposed in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia, where a harsh French police crackdown on protests could weaken the country’s efforts in the Pacific.
France has been trying to build its own anti-China coalition in the region, where the remnants of the French Empire have had a surprisingly long presence. To make matters worse, France blames Azerbaijan – itself moving closer to China – for its alleged interference in New Caledonia. (Although Baku has no presence in the Pacific, it has considerable lobbying influence worldwide due to its oil revenues.)
technology and economy
AI price wars. Another price war between Chinese technology companies has begun, this time over the availability of large language models – technologies for processing linguistic data that are increasingly being used by companies around the world despite their unpopularity with users and legal problems. On Tuesday, Alibaba slashed prices for a range of artificial intelligence services by as much as 97 percent, following which Baidu unveiled a range of free products.
Both companies are trying to establish themselves as the standard, assuming there is a long-term shift towards using large language models that will create a dependent user base. I would bet Alibaba will win, given Baidu’s shaky record on AI and the current crisis in public opinion. The Chinese models are lagging somewhat behind their Western counterparts, in part due to political concerns about the content produced.
However, for those who are worried, a large language model trained on Xi Jinping thought will soon be made available by China’s internet regulators.
European trade tensions. China hints at retaliation as the European Union is investigating Chinese government subsidies in key sectors such as electric vehicles. The increase in US tariffs on electric vehicles announced last week could be followed by EU action to protect its markets from a flood of cheap Chinese electric vehicles.
Although the EU is ahead of the United States in adopting electric vehicles, it has big ambitions for the transition. Xi’s visit to Europe this month appears to have done little to allay fears within the bloc about Chinese industry overcapacity.
A bit of culture
The poet and official Lu You (1125–1210) of the Southern Song Dynasty was happily married to his first wife Tang Wan, but his mother forced them to divorce because she disliked her daughter-in-law and the marriage produced no children.
Years later, after both had remarried, Lu reportedly met Tang again in the Shen family garden in Shaoxing and wrote this poem to describe the meeting. Today, the place is a tourist attraction that commemorates the couple’s story – Brendan O’Kane, translator into English
A phoenix for her hair
By Lu You
Soft pink hands,
Wine with yellow seal,
A city full of spring sights:
Pastures behind palace walls.
The east wind cruel,
The one I loved, cold,
A chest full of nothing but regret.
How many years have we been separated now?
Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!
Spring as always,
But how we have evaporated.
Tears color rouge-red
the silk gauze headscarf.
Peach blossoms fall,
Pavilions and ponds unmoved.
The vows we made are still as solid as mountains
But a letter would be useless now.
Don’t do it! Don’t do it! Don’t do it!
About the author
James Palmer is deputy editor at Foreign Policy. Twitter (X): @BeijingPalmer
We are currently testing machine translations. This article has been automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on May 21, 2024 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com“ was published – as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.
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