Trade, Europe is also suffering in the first quarter of 2024
Nothing to be done, the Old Continent is unable to restart its trade, in fact it is getting worse. The latest data from Eurostat on the trade of goods in the Eurozone in fact reveal that in the first 90 days of 2024 there was the worst decline (8.4%) since 2009, the year of the Great Recession. But what are the reasons? The decline in trade is an effect consistent with the negative trend of the recession which has been slowing down the Eurozone since 2023. Two negative quarters, the German locomotive in serious difficulty, with the sole exception of Spain, the only one to demonstrate a certain liveliness. The data is clear: European countries decreased their trade by 8.4% in the first quarter of 2024, reaching 650,770 million euros (above 710,000 million in the same period of 2023). At the beginning of the pandemic, in 2020, there was more trading, with only -4%. A worse figure was seen only in 2009 (-20%).
Trade, commercial activities suffer less
Commercial activities, in particular exports, between the Eurozone and non-EU markets suffered less (-3.2%). Imports suffered less, allowing the euro area to have a surplus of around 57.5 billion in world trade. Good news is that, in the first quarter of 2024, the eurozone exported more than it imported. In 2023 the opposite happened, with a deficit of 9.4 billion. But some glimmers of light are starting to appear. At the beginning of this year, activity recorded a small rebound of 0.3% and this thanks to the unexpected awakening of Germany (0.2%). “We will see whether Germany’s surprising recovery helps encourage exports of goods. If this were not the case, we would be faced with the first sign of a loss of industrial competitiveness.” underlines Raymond Torres, director of the Economic Situation of the Funcas Analysis Center. In short, old Europe is still very dependent on its German locomotive.
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