This Monday, in Iran A new period of political relief began. The death of the president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash He plunged the country into an interim period and, within a period of 50 days, the country must organize new elections.
(Read here: The president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisí, dies in a helicopter accident: this is what is known)
(You may be interested: Iran intensifies executions and two women die sentenced to hanging, according to NGO)
“The tragic fate of Iran’s hardline president is not expected to alter the Iranian political direction or shake the Islamic Republic in any major way. But he will test a system in which hard-line conservatives now dominate all branches of power, both elected and unelected,” explains the BBC’s chief international correspondent, Lyse Doucet, in an article.
Mojber, 68, will thus lead the Iranian Executive until the next elections that must be held on June 28 and comes to the position with an economic profile after directing financial entities and foundations, with an education focused on international laws.
Why do Western countries care what happens in Iran?
Along with this, the Iranians have a uranium enrichment program that especially worries Washington and the Israelis due to the fear that Tehran manages to make an atomic bomb. For these reasons, Western authorities look closely at everything that happens in the Persian country.
The fate of Iran’s hardline president is not expected to alter Iran’s political direction or shake the Islamic Republic in any major way.
“A successor as conservative and loyal to the system as Raisi could emerge,” estimates Ali Vaez, Iran specialist at the International Crisis Group.
“In matters of foreign policy, the supreme guide and the body of the guardians of the Islamic revolution (the ideological weapon of the regime) will maintain control of strategic decisions,” the analyst said on the social network X. Vaez foresees “more continuity than change (…) in a period of uncertainty and significant challenges facing the United States and the region.”
With Raisi, “the decision-making was very fluid because he was totally subject to the Supreme Guide,” he adds. “The question for Iranian conservatives will be to find someone who will be elected (…) and who will not cause too many problems.”
Iran, on the other hand, also supports a network of armed groups of the “axis of resistance” against Israel, which includes the Lebanese Hezbollahto the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Jason Brodsky, an expert at the Middle East Institute, expects a “status quo” on this front. “The guardians of the revolution depend on the supreme guide and maintain contact with Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas and other militias in the region. The modus operandi and grand strategy of the Islamic Republic will remain the same,” he explained to the BBC.
What are the main challenges in domestic politics?
Furthermore, whoever is Raisi’s replacement inherits a restrictive agenda regarding human rights that has been worsening.
“Iranians are struggling to cope with deepening financial difficulties linked to international sanctions. Inflation soared to more than 40 percent and the value of the rial (the local currency) plummeted. The Islamic Republic was also shaken by an extraordinary wave of protests sparked by the death in custody in September 2022 of Mahsa Amini, 22, detained by the morality police for allegedly violating Iran’s strict dress code,” Doucet notes. .
What is the election process like?
“There are 50 days according to the Iranian constitution where the Guardian Council will play an important role: accepting the candidacies that are presented to the elections. This 12-member council is appointed by both the Ayatollah, who appoints 6, and the Judiciary, who appoints the remaining 6. From here will come the electoral offer that Iranians will have on their ballots to elect Raisi’s successor,” González said.
If the hardliners prevail, they will do so because they have co-opted the moderates, they are increasing repression, or their opposing factions simply do not have the resources necessary to oppose them.
Supported by several vice presidents, the president appoints and directs the Council of Ministers since the position of prime minister does not exist in the Iranian political system.
Gonzalez also clarifies that in Iran there are three major factions: the hardliners, the reformists and the moderates.
“In the government and after the elections in March of this year, the hard line against the presidency and the Assembly, as well as the bodies to which it appoints its members. In the case of moderates, they are circumstantial opponents of certain hardline decisions. The reformists seek to change institutions, but without changing the regime,” says González.
And he adds: “In that sense, this moment is important to measure the strength of the hard line and to what extent the reformists can mobilize support from the moderates to undermine the already discredited image of the Raisi and Ayatollah government after the rights violations. humans. If the hardliners prevail, they will do so because they have co-opted the moderates, they are increasing repression, or their opposing factions simply do not have the resources necessary to oppose them.”
Who was Ebrahim Raisi and what is known about the accident?
Raisi, who presented himself as a defender of the disadvantaged classes and the fight against corruption, was elected on June 18, 2021 in the first round in an election marked by a record abstention for presidential elections, and in the absence of any major rival. .
Raisi had traveled to the province on Sunday to inaugurate, together with the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, a dam on the border between the two countries.
In their joint press conference, Raisi again expressed his support for Hamas against Israel. “We think that Palestine is the first question of the Muslim world,” he declared.
In a message of condolences, the Palestinian Islamist movement thanked the “support for the Palestinian resistance.”
*With AFP
#Whats #Iran #death #President #Ebrahim #Raisi #helicopter #crash