Mass shootings are no longer an unknown phenomenon in the European Union. Following the terrorist attacks in France that shocked Europe in 2015, the bloc responded swiftly and tightened common policies on civilian access to firearms. Since then, the annual figures throughout Europe have remained between one and three attacks of this type, a constant average for 15 years. The most recent took place in the Czech Republic more than a week ago: a 24-year-old student shot at a Prague university, killing 14 people and wounding 25 others. Although experts agree that these incidents – the tip of the iceberg of all the violence that is carried out with weapons on the continent—does not increase per se the threat of spread to other countries, insist that the EU must not let its guard down, particularly with regard to illegal arms trafficking.
Since 2008, 44 mass shootings have been recorded in Europe (most institutions define them as those that result in the death of at least four people, not counting the assailant). The attack in Prague, one of the deadliest in recent years, is the third recorded this year, followed by two others committed in Serbia in May. The three attacks have in common that they were perpetrated by young people under 25 years of age – one of those in Serbia was committed by a 13-year-old teenager – a growing phenomenon among European countries. Alexei Anisin, dean of the School of International Studies at the Anglo-American University of Prague, warns of this: “The young assailants do not belong to religious or terrorist organizations, which is where most of the security and intelligence in Prague has been focused. Europe and that is why they tend to surprise the authorities more, as happened in Prague.”
The European Commission warned at the beginning of December of the “enormous risk” of attacks being carried out in the EU during the Christmas season, keeping in mind the political and social tension caused by the war between Hamas and Israel launched in October. However, it was difficult to predict that the next attack would have nothing to do with the conflict, but would instead involve a young man with psychological problems in the Czech Republic, one of the countries with the laxest gun control policies in the EU. To the point that, as of 2021, it constitutionally protects the right to bear arms.
“The country is a large manufacturer of firearms and these have great symbolic value in society, as is the case among many of the countries that were governed by communism in the mid-20th century,” explains Nils Duquet, director of Flemish. Peace Institute, Belgian institute specialized in defense issues in the EU. Following the Paris attacks in 2015, the European Parliament and the EU Council promoted a new control directive to make access to semi-automatic pistols more difficult. The reform was approved in 2017 and immediately rejected by the Czech Republic, which took the case to the Strasbourg Court, considering that it violated its national sovereignty. The European justice system rejected his appeal and this led to the constitutional protection of the possession of weapons.
France and Germany, main scenarios
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Although in the last 15 years there have been four mass shootings in the Czech Republic – none have been recorded in Spain – the problem transcends its national border. In Europe, France and Germany are the main scenes of these incidents, with seven and five attacks, respectively, according to a count by the Flemish Peace Institute. The Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Austria also report multiple attacks of this type, as well as Balkan countries such as Serbia and Albania. Due to these events, nearly 500 people have died across the continent, of which almost half died in shootings perpetrated by terrorists. “They are less frequent, but they tend to be the ones with the highest number of victims,” says Duquet.
Experts emphasize that mass shootings are only the most visible image of the violence that occurs in Europe with firearms. According to the Belgian institute, the majority of deaths caused by these devices each year occur due to homicides, about 1,000; and suicides, around 5,000, figures substantially higher than the victims caused by the massive attacks. Small Arms Survey, an independent research project based in Geneva, specialized in armed violence, estimates that the EU countries with the highest number of weapons per 100 inhabitants are Cyprus (33.96), Finland (32.36) and Austria (29.99), followed by Malta (28.26) and Sweden (23.14). Spain is near the bottom of the list, with an estimated number of 7.52.
Aarón Karp, senior consultant at Small Arms Survey, elaborates: “In each EU country there is a part of the population that wants to have firearms. And if there is a great hunting culture, it is not unusual for there to be a high number of carriers. There are cases in which this lobby is very powerful”. This explains, in part, the high numbers recorded in Nordic countries such as Finland or Sweden, where there is an important hunting tradition. “But that doesn't necessarily mean there will be more shootings. Criminals do not usually use legally obtained hunting weapons,” says Duquet.
An exception to the rule is the Prague assailant, who possessed eight weapons – two of them long – and for the shooting he used an AR-10 assault rifle, from the same family as the AR-15, often used in the United States attacks. Czech authorities have claimed to have opened an investigation into how the student obtained licenses for so much weaponry without being part of shooting or hunting associations and with a medical history that detailed psychological problems, one of the impediments to obtaining firearms, according to current legislation.
Advancement of the illegal market
Despite these questions, Anisin – who was in Prague during the attack – assures that a political or social debate has not necessarily been generated to tighten the arms control policy. The big problem lies, as experts agree, in the advance of the illegal arms market. More than half of the mass shootings in the last 15 years were committed with illegally obtained weapons, mostly those committed by terrorist organizations. The most recent EU directive on arms control, approved in 2021 as a replacement for the 2017 one, enshrines more rigorous tracking of the black market and boosts the exchange of information between member states. However, there is still no specific data collection system at the community level and the figures vary by country.
“EU countries are aware of legally registered weapons, but the problem arises with the data on seizures of illegal weapons, since registration usually takes a backseat,” explains Duquet, and underlines the importance of collaboration between countries: “ Trafficking is an international problem and collaboration of this scope is needed.” The European Commission estimates that up to 35 million firearms are in the hands of civilians, while around 630,000 are listed as stolen or lost.
Added to this problem is the political instability caused by the war in Ukraine launched by Russia, which, for the European Commission, “increases the potential for the proliferation of firearms” in the bloc. “When there is domestic or regional instability, people decide to arm themselves. The highest purchase peaks are recorded after a mass shooting or exceptional cases such as a pandemic or war,” says Anisin. For Duquet, the “Ukraine effect” will have an impact in the medium term.
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