The wildfire season in Canada in 2023 has been the worst recorded in this North American country. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, the flames of 6,669 fires destroyed 18.5 million hectares, an area larger than Florida. However, this organization stopped presenting its daily report on September 27, so the devastated area is larger, since the flames still had their impact for weeks more in certain areas. The EU Copernicus Service has calculated that they have emitted at least 410 million tons of CO₂, much more than all the emissions recorded in 2022 in Spain (244.3).
Alarm bells began to ring in late April and early May, when the province of Alberta recorded an abnormal number of wildfires in a short period of time. British Columbia, the neighboring province on the Pacific coast, was next to cause concern. The Northwest Territories, Quebec and Nova Scotia were also the scene of these fires. More than 200,000 people had to be evacuated at some point because of the flames and smoke.
Philippe Gachon, a professor of climatology at the University of Quebec in Montreal, is one of the international experts who recently published a study on this year’s fires in the province of Quebec. His main conclusion was that climate change doubled the risk of favorable weather conditions for these fires. “Between May and October we broke the record for the hottest months for that season in Quebec. The old record was from 1950. At the same time, we also broke the record for the least accumulated rainfall for those six months,” says Gachon. “The snow melted very quickly. “That led to unusually early fires,” he adds.
It was not just the number of fires that raised concern; also the extension of some of them. Flames in an area on the border of British Columbia and the Northwest Territories destroyed more than 802,000 hectares. In northern Quebec, near James Bay, another fire covered more than 1.2 million hectares. “Let’s think about the combination of drought and heat. Material that was under snow in winter becomes very flammable. We witnessed an extremely rapid and powerful advance of the flames,” explains Gachon.
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Despite the support of the Armed Forces, the government response was overwhelmed by the intensity of the fires, so thousands of firefighters from various countries (United States, France, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, among others) arrived to join the Tasks. The losses have been in the millions for certain sectors of the Canadian economy. Such is the case of the forestry industry, agriculture, mining and tourism. At the end of June, a report from Oxford Economics indicated that the fires could reduce Canadian economic growth in 2023 by between 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points. However, damage has also been felt in points outside the country. One example is the impact on corn crops in Ohio and Indiana. Smoke and particles from the Canadian fires caused apocalyptic landscapes in New York and Washington; They even reached the Iberian Peninsula.
According to a report by the Institute of Applied Ecology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences published on July 28, the fires in Canada had emitted 302 megatonnes of carbon. On September 10, the European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service estimated almost 410 megatons. The previous record by Canadian flames took place in 2014, with 138 megatons. It is much more than all the greenhouse gas emissions – which include transport, industry, livestock and other sectors – recorded in Spain for an entire year: in 2022, the country released 244.3 megatons,” according to the latest National Emissions Inventory.
Canada had already generated headlines in the summer of 2021 for the phenomenon known as a “heat dome.” Lytton, a community located in British Columbia, represented the most extreme case: its thermometers registered 49.6 degrees. At the end of 2022, before the unprecedented wave of wildfires, the parliamentary budget director presented a report stating that Canada was already paying the consequences of climate change. According to the document, these consequences caused a decrease of 0.8% of GDP in 2021, and could reach 2.4% in 2050.
Climate change: challenges of the Canadian plan
Justin Trudeau’s Government has launched a strategy to address climate change and its impacts. It contemplates, among other points, a national program for adaptation to extreme weather conditions, financial support for developing countries regarding these threats, an increase in the number of protected areas, a carbon pricing plan and investments in “green” energy. All this accompanied by an ambitious plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
On the other hand, Minister Guilbeault announced this Thursday a framework to limit greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector that is expected to come into effect in 2026. The plan contains fixed figures (for example, setting emissions for 2030 to a maximum of 38% below 2019 levels). However, companies will have some flexibility to achieve the objectives, as they will be able to make a contribution to a decarbonization fund or pay compensation credits. The sector is responsible for 28% of Canada’s emissions.
Several environmental groups welcomed the news, although they regretted that Ottawa continues to focus on reducing emissions and not on decreasing production. The governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan stated that the plan will have serious economic repercussions, in addition to representing a violation of provincial powers. For its part, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers indicated in a statement that adding regulations could hinder its investments in clean energy projects.
On November 8, a UN report said that oil-producing countries plan to produce by 2030 more than double the fuel required to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Canada is the fourth largest producer in the world. In 2035, Canadian fossil fuel production is estimated to be 25% higher than in 2022.
The Canadian strategy focuses more on seeking to reduce emissions from oil and gas companies than on a significant elimination of production in the sector. Proof of this are the investments and fiscal stimuli related to carbon capture and storage in Alberta, the country’s main oil province. However, the International Energy Agency recently indicated that “the amount of electricity needed to power these technologies would exceed current global electricity demand.” He also said oil and gas companies should look to diversify more vigorously into clean energy instead of putting so much weight on carbon capture and storage.
“It is often said that the Trudeau Government is too accommodating to the fossil fuel industry. It is true that more could be done, but it is a complex situation due to Canadian federalism,” comments Simon Langlois-Bertrand, researcher at the Trottier Institute of the Montreal Polytechnic. “We must make consultations, meet with the provinces; all this with great caution. According to constitutional guidelines, the federal government cannot control production, although it can control emissions. Let us remember that Trudeau’s carbon pricing plan even reached the Supreme Court,” he adds.
This Monday, within the framework of COP28 in Dubai, Canada’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, announced that his country will strengthen surveillance regarding methane emissions in the fossil fuel infrastructure network. This measure will mainly serve to detect leaks and eliminate the routine burning of said gas. Guilbeault noted that both the strategy implemented by Canada and other decisions in the future will help achieve the goal of a net zero emissions balance in 2050.
“The Trudeau Government has advanced different points on the agenda. However, they have been successes in matters that are not so complex. For example, removing coal from electricity production and promoting clean technologies. But now we are at a stage where difficult decisions are required to achieve goals. It is a defining moment. The next step is the announcement of the emissions limit for the Canadian oil and gas sector,” says Simon Langlois-Bertrand.
State plan to limit emissions
This Thursday, Minister Guilbeault announced a framework to limit greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector that is expected to come into effect in 2026. The plan contains fixed figures (for example, setting emissions for 2030 at 38 % below 2019 levels). However, companies will have some flexibility to achieve the objectives, as they will be able to make a contribution to a decarbonization fund or pay compensation credits. The sector is responsible for 28% of Canada’s emissions.
Several environmental groups welcomed the news, although they regretted that Ottawa continues to focus on reducing emissions and not on decreasing production. The governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan stated that the plan will have serious economic repercussions, in addition to representing a violation of provincial powers. For its part, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers indicated in a statement that adding regulations could hinder its investments in clean energy projects.
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