Democracy is at a crossroads: we live the period of greatest democratic recession in the last three decades. Analyst opinions vary; Some describe this period as one of stagnation, others see it as erosion, deterioration or even backsliding. But beyond opinions, the truth is that the current situation is serious and requires urgent evaluation and intervention.
A recent study conducted by the Open Society Foundation in 30 countries reveals a paradox in the perception of democracy. Although it remains widely valued, it is under the scrutiny of various challenges including inequality, corruption and the threats of climate change. That is to say, while there is a constant demand for democracy and trust in its fundamental pillars, doubts simultaneously arise about its effectiveness in producing tangible results, while at the same time it is observed a resurgence of authoritarianism.
Notably, the study highlights that young people are more skeptical than previous generations about democracy’s ability to meet their expectations. Alarmingly, 35 per cent of these young people believe that a “strong leader” who is not democratically elected or who does not consult parliament could be an effective way to govern a country (The Guardian, September 11).
Authoritarian advance
In the period that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed the “end of history,” considering capitalist democracy triumphant. However, just three decades later we find ourselves facing a democracy under harassment, besieged by numerous threats that manifest themselves in growing polarization, the proliferation of fake news and a resurgence of illiberal populism. This decline is not limited only to emerging democracies, but also reaches those that, until recently, we considered consolidated, as evidenced by the assault on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, as well as the emergence of populist leaders and democracies. illiberal in some European countries.
(You may be interested in: Why did coups d’état return in various parts of the world and what do they imply?)
This serious situation can be condensed into three crucial data at a global level. First, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit (2023), only 8 percent of the world’s population lives in full democracies. Second, the V-Dem report (2023) notes that, for the first time in more than two decades, closed autocracies outnumber liberal democracies in the world. And, third, according to the International IDEA 2022 report, The quality of democracy has experienced serious stagnation in the last five years. Data from the aforementioned study show that half of the world’s democracies are in decline, while the number of countries with the most severe democratic erosion is booming.
In Latin America
The global democratic recession finds a worrying echo in our region. Since 2006, we have witnessed a sustained and profound decline in democracy. According to the most recent 2023 Democracy Index report from The Economist, an alarming majority, 60 percent of countries, have lost their democratic status. At the moment, Only Uruguay, Costa Rica and Chile maintain the qualification of full democracies, followed by five other countries – Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Panama and the Dominican Republic – that are classified as incomplete democracies and that mostly show signs of stagnation.
Additionally, we find eight nations categorized as hybrid regimes (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and Bolivia), and four where an authoritarian regime predominates: Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Haiti, the latter converted into a State. failed.
In the area of political culture, a significant deficit is also detected. According to the Latinobarómetro 2023, Support for democracy has fallen to 48 percent, representing a drop of 15 percentage points since 2010.
For its part, satisfaction with democracy continues to fall, marking the fourth consecutive year in which less than a third of the population is satisfied with it. And among the data that draws the most attention, it appears that support for democracy is higher among those over 61 than among those under 25. Young people also support authoritarianism more or are more indifferent to the type of regime, which which raises numerous questions for the future.
The prominent symptoms of this recession include democratic disaffection, fragile institutions, crisis of representation, the weakening of the rule of law, harassment of freedom of expression, the proliferation of fake news, an increase in toxic polarization, the closing of spaces for action by civil society, an increase in levels of insecurity, violence and corruption, the poor economic and social performance of governments and the lack of results (the unfulfilled promises of democracy).
(Read more: ‘Disinformation is related to the search for power’).
Also notable is the predilection for candidates with populist and authoritarian profiles, with anti-elite and anti-system rhetoric, who propose radical changes that challenge democratic precepts, the division of powers and the rule of law. Nayib Bukele and Jair Bolsonaro are manifestations of this trend of a broken political system, with traditional parties with very low levels of support and disconnected from citizen demands.
Added to this is a significant decrease in electoral participation, which has fallen from 78 percent from the 1980s to 69 percent in the last election (regional average), signaling an urgent need for attention and review.
Lights
But not everything is negative. Democracy in the region also shows important signs of resilience. Elections with integrity remain the only legitimate way to access power. Important sectors of citizens continue to value and demand more and better democracy at the polls and in the streets. Politicians, judges, journalists, academics, human rights defenders and activists continue to fight to care for, protect and strengthen the health of the system. In summary, democracy in our region shows signs of resilience and deterioration.
The next few years will be complex and challenging. You have to prepare to face tough times. Latin America emerged from the covid-19 pandemic with a cursed inheritance in terms of human development. The news is not good in the economic field either. The region’s growth continues to languish (ECLAC projects 1.7 percent by 2023), marking a new lost decade (2014-2023). To the persistent problems of the 20th century, such as inequality, poverty, labor informality, violence and corruption, there are now emerging challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change and the repercussions of the fourth industrial revolution and the proliferation of artificial intelligence.
seven keys
Below, I propose a seven-point agenda to navigate these turbulent waters and prevent growing unease in democracy from becoming unrest with it.
First, it is imperative to rethink democracy so that it can provide timely and effective responses to the problems and challenges that characterize the complex societies of the 21st century. Second, it is crucial to protect the legitimacy of origin and the integrity of the elections. Third, we must revalue the role of politics and relegitimize institutions (parties and congresses) through innovation, open new channels of citizen participation and deliberation and intelligently incorporate new technologies to overcome the current crisis of representation and recover trust in politics and in the elites.
Fourth, promote among citizens, and especially among young people, democratic values and attitudes that promote a just and equitable society. There is no democracy without democrats. Fifth, special attention must be paid to the social dimension of democracy, promoting inclusive dialogue and the building of consensus that facilitate the renewal of the social contract.
Sixth, it is necessary to focus decisively on one of the main pending tasks: strengthening the rule of law. This process will involve guaranteeing legal security, respecting human rights and freedom of expression, combat corruption and impunity head-onand respond in a democratic manner to the challenges posed by citizen insecurity and organized crime today.
Seventh, place governability and democratic governance at the center of the regional political agenda, improving levels of resilience and reducing the gap between the magnitude of contemporary problems and the government’s capacity to respond to them effectively, providing timely solutions. to the problems faced by the population. With weak states, low taxation and mediocre public policies, it is difficult to deliver quality public goods.
All of the above must be accompanied by a renewal of the democratic consensus at the regional level, revitalizing and strengthening the mechanisms to protect democracy.
This is the agenda that we must implement with urgency and strategic compass. Neither the triumph of democracy is assured nor its decline. Both futures are possible. There is no panacea nor any determinism. It depends, to a large extent, on what each of us does individually and what we do together.
DANIEL ZOVATTO
For THE NATION (ARGENTINA) – GDA
#Democracy #today #deterioration #resilience