09/27/2023 – 17:51
With the real under great pressure in the session, in which the dollar in cash touched, at its highest of the day, the mark of R$ 5.0795, the Ibovespa showed resilience until the beginning of the afternoon, but came to succumb, after 2 pm, to the it also gets worse in New York. Towards the closing, however, the three main NY indices turned positive, which contributed to the Ibovespa returning to the high water mark, not so far from stability at the end of the day, and with a positive sign in the final adjustment.
On B3, the reference index closed with a slight increase of 0.12%, at 114,327.05 points, halfway between the minimum (113,365.75) and maximum (115,340.41) of the day, opening at 114,193 .51 points. During the week, the Ibovespa falls 1.45% and, during the month, it drops 1.22%. For the year, it limits the increase to 4.19%. This Wednesday’s financial turnover remained at R$22.8 billion, similar to the previous session. And, with the slightly positive closing, the Ibovespa interrupts the sequence of four losses, which had placed it yesterday at the lowest closing level since June 5th.
The good performance of commodity stocks, especially Petrobras (ON +3.71%, PN +3.17%, both at session highs at the close), contributed early on to the slight positive bias of the Ibovespa this Wednesday , on a day broadly favorable to oil, up 3.64% for WTI and 2.09% for Brent, which puts the global reference above US$96 per barrel, in London. The surge in oil in the session, with the American reference, WTI, reaching the highest level since August 2022, at US$ 93.68, was due to a drop in the weekly reading on stocks in the United States, in a context of restricted supply at the time.
In addition to the strong performance of Petrobras in the session, the fluctuation of Vale (ON +0.21%) at the close was important for the Ibovespa signal at the end of the day, with a generally poor performance for shares in the financial sector, with the exception of BB (ON +0.87%) among the large banks. At the top of the Ibovespa, highlights include Gol (+7.19%), PetroReconcavo (+4.61%) and Prio (+2.92%), in addition to the ON and PN shares of Petrobras. On the opposite side, Casas Bahia (-5.00%), Pão de Açúcar (-2.99%), Copel (-2.90%) and Magazine Luiza (-2.86%).
Earlier, the news that China’s central bank will intensify support for the local economy, and that US Senate leaders reached an agreement that avoids a government shutdown, helped to mitigate the perception of risk from abroad, which it also contributed, at closing, to Ibovespa avoiding its fifth consecutive loss today.
“With the 10-year T-note yield at 4.60%, we have a risk-free rate at a very attractive level, which also ends up affecting our exchange rate, which was under great pressure in today’s session. There is still concern, doubt, about how far the Federal Reserve will be able to go, although the consensus, at the moment, points to another increase in the American reference rate by the end of the year. It is a situation of uncertainty that also affects the S&P 500 there. So, with all this, why come to an emerging market in this context”, says Cesar Mikail, variable income manager at Western Asset.
This Wednesday, despite the improvement observed in part of the afternoon, the New York indices closed without a single direction, with the Dow Jones still down 0.20%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up, respectively, 0. 02% and 0.22%.
On the domestic front, Mikail highlights the resumption of fears surrounding the fiscal situation, with the perception that the government will face great difficulty in fulfilling its commitments in relation to balancing public accounts. “Federal revenue in the last three months has shown this difficulty, and to improve expectations, a signal from the spending control side will be needed”, he adds.
“Copom’s tough act alone, as we saw this week, does not seem to me to be enough from now on. Signals from the government regarding spending cuts will also be necessary for this improvement in perception to materialize. Apart from that, with the interest rate abroad, more premiums will be required here. And this has already been observed in long interest rates, which are what really matters. The fiscal risk is at risk, which has weighed heavily, in addition to the unfavorable external scenario. Signs like the recent ones, about court orders, are not good”, says the manager.
In addition to the Brazilian and American circumstances, “the crisis in the real estate sector in China continues to give something to talk about, with direct reverberations for our market”, due to exposure to commodities, observes Gabriel Meira, specialist at Valor Investimentos, also referring to the situation global, of “higher interest rates for longer”, with the United States at the forefront. So, like yesterday, the day was “dollar up and stock market down”. And future interest rates also show risk aversion.
“The dollar has been gaining strength in relation to references such as the euro, which is reflected in the DXY index that pits the American currency against peers such as the euro itself, the pound and the yen. In the interest curve, the stress was more concentrated today in short and intermediate peaks here in Brazil, especially in the morning, until the early afternoon. And it returned more towards the end of the trading session, despite the second day of a relatively significant increase”, says Lucas Serra, analyst at Toro Investimentos.
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