The second part of the analysis of the conjuncture of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank of this month began at 2:30 pm this Tuesday, 20.
The analysis of the conjuncture, part of the Copom meeting that revisits important themes for decision-making on the Selic rate, began today at 10:15 am and will continue on the morning of this Wednesday, the 21st. Tomorrow afternoon, the second part of the meeting will take place , when the board sets the Selic rate, which is announced after 6:30 pm.
Despite the government’s strong offensive, the majority expects the Selic rate to remain at 13.75% per year for the seventh time in a row. Of 46 financial institutions consulted by Projeções Broadcast, 45 expect stability and only one expects a drop to 13.50% per annum.
But most of the market predicts that the Central Bank will start the easing cycle in August, exactly one year after ending the longest monetary tightening in its history. Since the May Copom, a set of favorable news has accumulated in the inflationary scenario and has been recognized by members of the collegiate.
There were disinflationary surprises in short-term data, including services prices, decompression of inflation expectations and exchange rate appreciation, in addition to continued deflation in producer price indices.
In the fiscal field, the new fiscal framework was approved in the Chamber, with stricter rules, and is being discussed in the Senate, which has already had an effect on the futures interest market.
Last week, the president of the BC, Roberto Campos Neto, said that this movement and the drop in inflationary expectations make room for a lower interest rate ahead, although he asked for “patience” at an event with executives from the retail sector.
In the Focus Bulletin, the medians are 5.12% for the IPCA – official inflation index – for 2023, still above the target ceiling (4.75%), and 4.04% for 2024, higher than the center of the target (3.00%). In the last Copom, the projections of the collegiate were 5.8% and 3.6%, in that order, but the expectation is that there will be a reduction in this meeting thanks to the decompression of the medians in Focus and the exchange rate appreciation.
#part #analysis #economic #situation #Copom #begins