The opposition moves between the tide of the 4T. For specialists in political science, the challenge of PRI, PAN and PRD is not find a presidential candidate among the ten interested parties, but be a character capable of giving battle to the party in power which leads the preferences.
During the last weeks, the opposition has intensified its parade of political and civil figures in various events with the intention of profiling them, since They should be defined by the end of 2023.
On the list
From profiles such as panistas Santiago Creel, Lilly Tellez either Francisco Garcia Cabeza de Vaca; the priistas Enrique de la Madrid, Beatriz Paredes either Claudia Ruiz Massieuand the PRD members like Silvano Aureoles either Miguel Angel Mancerahave raised their hands to lead the opposition’s possible presidential candidacy.
Also, civil society figures such as Gustavo de Hoyos, former president of Coparmex. However, Lilly Téllez and Santiago Creel are heading in the polls. AMLO has even included them in the list of 42 pre-candidates of the conservative bloc for the Presidency of the Republic, which he presented this Monday in his morning conference.
Luis Antonio González Tule, a doctor in political science and an Iteso academic, pointed out that choosing a candidate will not be complicated for the opposition, but “for this candidacy to be competitive, this is much more complicated,” he said.
Influential?
Although he mentioned that it is still early to speculate on the ability of the PAN, PRI and PRD to unite the electorate and win the elections in 2024, he analyzed that as they are at the moment, It is difficult for them to win.
He criticized that the opposition has even been irresponsible because it is not just about criticizing for criticizing to the current government, but must present a viable alternative. “It is insufficient if they want to be competitive,” said the Iteso researcher.
González Tule argued that most of the interested parties have a political career, a longer track record, but also greater media and political exposure. “Silvano Aureoles, for example, ended badly as governor of Michoacán… and he is also from the PRD, who is the one who can contribute the least to the coalition,” he said.
In the PRI, he considered that Enrique de la Madrid, a former public servant, is not so positioned and has other figures such as Beatriz Paredes or Claudia Ruiz Massieu above him.
“They are slightly less relevant characters in the field of national politicsnot within the party, because there they can be influential, but not in national politics,” he added.
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Juan Pablo Navarrete, a specialist in political science and academic at the Autonomous Metropolitan University, highlighted that in the case of santiago creelhe was already Secretary of the Interior during Vicente Fox’s six-year term. In fact, he recalled that he was Vicente Fox’s favorite to be a presidential candidate in 2006, but he did not win the internal one in the PAN against Felipe Calderón.
“He’s a very conservative, back-to-the-status-quo candidate. that was counted in at least the two six-year terms of the PAN. I do not see a disruptive candidate, a discourse that could pull the electoral segments that, at least right now, Morena has deeply rooted in,” said Juan Pablo Navarrete, a UAM academic.
Lilly Tellez case
Although he said that his profile fits the right-wing project, with experience in legislatures, he considered that it would not be enough to close the gap with the candidate that Morena can select.
On the other hand, the analyst questioned the confrontational strategy that until now has been maintained by Senator Lilly Téllez, another of the PAN profiles that leads the polls in her party. “In that sense, I see more possibilities for Santiago Creel than for Lilly Téllez, especially because of the confrontation, polarization and insult to others,” he said.
In this regard, he recalled that for López Obrador himself, being a presidential candidate in 2005, that level of confrontation, with the “shut up chachalaca”, for example, which was the dynamic of the leftist candidate, versus President Vicente Fox, did not bring him More than negative points.
alliance
For the doctor in political science Mónica Montaño, Going through Mexico continues to confuse citizens. He analyzed that although it is made up of various important and very relevant figures, the coalition as such it is worn out by having the three parties, PAN, PRI and PRD.
He considered that events such as the Unity Forums and Coalition Governments are a good democratic effort, but he insisted that the parties are somewhat contaminated by the past.
“It is good for democracy in terms of at least there being a debate between who is for and against the current party in government,” he opined.
The also academic from the University of Guadalajara said that a relevant point is the candidate who puts Morena so that the opposition is defined and can place someone who will fight.
new coalition
However, Mónica Montaño, a UdeG academic, emphasized that the results in the last elections of Va por México have not been growing. “Although they are very relevant characters, in the imagination of the people, because they are the same parties, the traditional parties against a new party. Electoral behavior is always more attractive”, said the specialist.
Both Mónica Montaño and Luis Antonio González Tule agreed when emphasizing that Movimiento Ciudadano could change this panorama. González Tule emphasized that perhaps Movimiento Ciudadano can accept a coalition solely with Acción Nacional, leaving aside the bad image that the PRI has. However, until now Movimiento Ciudadano has distanced itself from a possible alliance with Va por México or any of the parties that comprise it.
Context
Conservative candidates, according to AMLO
Although in different morning press conferences President López Obrador has already launched against opposition figures noting that they are only seeking the candidacy for the Presidency in 2024, this time the president he enlisted 42 characters. “There are about 50 from the conservative bloc, and on the side of… on the left flank, since there is talk of Marcelo Ebrard, Adán Augusto, Ricardo Monreal, Claudia Sheinbaum, there are not many, but on the other side there are quite a few. ”, he expressed.
In addition to the characters that appear in this article, it included others such as Damián Zepeda, Dante Delgado, Demetrio Sodi de la Tijera, Diego Fernández de Cevallos and the governor of Jalisco, Enrique Alfaro. The leaders of the PRI and the PAN, Alejandro Moreno and Marko Cortés, as well as the governors of Acción Nacional Maru Campos and Mauricio Kuri. However, while the president was reading the list, he ruled out some on the spot.
“But everyone, since there are no longer covered ones, because That comes from the time of the Porfiriato, there should no longer be covers or a finger, all those undemocratic practices, well, they should not cause us any concern, it is normal. Only that the public budget is not used, that votes are not bought”, said the president of Mexico.
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