The vote will decide not only who leads Turkey, a NATO member of 85 million people, but also the way it is governed, where the country’s economy is headed amid a deepening cost of living crisis, and the shape of its foreign policy that has taken unexpected turns.
Opinion polls show Erdogan’s main rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who heads an alliance of six opposition parties, with a slight lead. But if either fails to get more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off will take place on May 28, according to Reuters.
The elections take place 3 months after earthquakes in southeastern Turkey claimed the lives of more than 50,000 people. Many in the affected provinces have expressed anger at the government’s slow initial response to the disaster, but there is little evidence that the issue has changed people’s voting attitudes.
Voters will also choose a new parliament, and there is likely to be a close race between the “People’s Alliance,” made up of Erdoğan’s Islamist-conservative Justice and Development Party, the right-wing Nationalist Movement Party and others, and Kilicdaroglu’s six-party “Nation Alliance.” Opposition, including the Republican People’s Party founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey.
Voting centers open at eight in the morning and close at five in the evening. Under Turkish election law, it is forbidden to announce any results until 9 p.m. By late Sunday, there may be a good indication of whether a runoff will be held in the presidential election.
Kurdish voters, who represent 15-20 percent of the electorate, will play a pivotal role, and the Nation Alliance is unlikely to get a parliamentary majority on its own.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is not part of the main opposition alliance, but it strongly opposes Erdogan after a crackdown on its members in recent years.
The party announced its support for Kilicdaroglu in the presidential race. He is running in the parliamentary elections under the banner of the small Green Left Party because of a lawsuit filed by a senior prosecutor seeking to ban the HDP over its links to Kurdish militants, which the party denies.
end of an era?
Erdoğan, 69, is a powerful orator and campaigner, who did his best during the campaign as he struggled to pass his toughest political test. He has a strong loyalty among religious Turks who at one point felt disenfranchised in secular Turkey. His political life has survived a coup attempt in 2016 and several corruption scandals.
However, if the Turks overthrow Erdogan, it will be largely because they have seen their prosperity, equality, and ability to meet basic needs deteriorate with an inflation rate exceeding 85 percent in October 2022, along with the collapse of the lira.
As for Kilicdaroglu, 74, a former civil servant who promises that if he wins, he will return to traditional economic policies.
He also says he will seek to return the country to a parliamentary system of government, from Erdogan’s executive presidential system passed in a 2017 referendum. He has also promised to restore the independence of the judiciary, which critics say Erdogan has used to suppress dissent.
During his time in power, Erdogan firmly controlled most of Turkey’s institutions and sidelined liberals and critics. Human Rights Watch said in its 2022 world report that Erdogan’s government has caused Turkey’s human rights record to decline for decades.
If Kilicdaroglu wins, he will face challenges in maintaining a unified opposition coalition that includes nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals.
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