Mikhail Khodorkovsky is one of the most well-known critics of Putin. In an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA, he gives an insight into the thinking of the Russian President.
Munich – Russia is not invited to the Munich Security Conference. To be more precise: the Russian government. On Thursday (February 16), a prominent Kremlin critic, former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, presented a book with very concrete proposals for a “post-Putin” Russia. He even presented a “manual” for a “revolution” with “How to Kill a Dragon”.
Khodorkovsky spoke in advance Merkur.de from IPPEN.MEDIA. He cautiously gave the all-clear with a view to a possible nuclear strike by Vladimir Putin. The former head of the oil company Yukos urged caution against a Russian attack on NATO – if the country “wins” in Ukraine. Khodorkovsky also gave assessments of possible Putin heirs, the mysterious deaths of Russian business leaders and the situation of Alexei Navalny.
Putin’s resignation? “That would be suicide”
Merkur.de: Herr Khodorkovsky, you know Vladimir Putin better than most people who speculate about his plans in the West. Do you think it is conceivable that he will voluntarily withdraw from Ukraine?
Mikhail Khodorkovsky: He might do so when he finds that a significant portion of his troops are surrounded. In this situation, that would be possible. But if your question is whether he could be persuaded to retire: Absolutely not. For the same reason, by the way, that he’s unlikely to use strategic nuclear weapons: he’s not suicidal. And that would be suicide.
Does that also apply domestically? Is there a scenario where Putin could step down as President?
Resign as President? No, that would also be suicide in the current situation.
I suspect you have some insight into Russian society despite your life in exile. How much hope of a strong opposition is there? The former German ambassador to Russia, Rüdiger von Fritsch, recently spoke of an attitude as in the days of Stalinism. Hardly anyone wants to stand out and get into trouble like that. Do you agree?
Look: Anastasia Shevchenko is traveling with me, she spent two and a half years under house arrest and had to leave the country to avoid jail. Also in Munich is Anastasia Burakowa. If she hadn’t gone to Georgia, she too would now be in prison for six years.
So, on the one hand, the answer to your question is yes. On the other hand, we are in constant contact with people in Russia who are brave enough to defend their position. We were just discussing the proportion of such courageous people in the Russian population. We think it’s about 15 to 20 percent. So it’s not directly a situation like in Stalinist times.
Then the next thing we’ll have to talk about is a war between Russia and NATO. Because Putin can’t stop – even if he wanted to.
They avowedly hope for a democratic “revolution” in Russia. This is not the only scenario for a post-Putin Russia, however. Do you think there is someone who could become a threat to Putin or inherit him, such as the much-discussed Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin?
There are currently various political forces in Russia. The “national patriots” around Prigozhin are one of them. This is the force that Putin is currently leaning on. However, this is not a monolithic entity. There is a power struggle going on – currently with Igor “Strelkov” Girkin. He is the one who started the whole mess in Donbass. Another force is the Democrats – also non-monolithic. We are currently trying to bring about a consensus in our ranks. The communists, on the other hand, are in a difficult position because their leader is in the service of the Kremlin, and their movement is severely weakened.
And then there are the regions as another important force. Everyone knows the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, Rustam Minnikhanow from Tatarstan is less known in the West. Mention should also be made of the Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin, or Yevgeny Roisman from Yekaterinburg. There is a contested center of power in St. Petersburg and the imprisoned but very popular politician Sergei Furgal – there are many such regional powers. For now, they are subordinate to the Kremlin. But when this phase passes, they will be on their own.
“Putin can’t stop anymore”: Khodorkovsky warns of Russian attack on NATO
Despite your exile, you seem to write in the book from a very specifically Russian perspective. From this point of view: How can the West have a positive influence on the Ukraine war, but also on Russia’s development?
I firmly believe that the West can have a very important influence on two points. The first is a military victory of Ukraine. If that doesn’t happen, the next thing we’ll have to talk about is a war between Russia and NATO. Because Putin can’t stop – even if he wanted to. He also said so publicly. There was talk of a NATO within the borders of 1997. This should also be a very questionable plan from a German point of view.
And the second point?
If Ukraine wins militarily and the Russian regime collapses, any new Russian government will have to find a common language with the West – at least on the issue of sanctions. Here the West will have to make a decision: either to support the complete disintegration of Russia. Or to look for the next “good tsar”. Or to help Russia, the fine line between to tread decay and authoritarianism. With federalism, parliamentary democracy et cetera – I have written the ingredients in my book. It will not all depend on the West. But the West will have the chance to decisively influence this process.
Ukraine war: Russia should bear the costs alone – “That’s the price we pay”
A sensitive issue for a new Russian government could also be how to deal with the legacy of the Ukraine war. In his book “Putinland”, Navalny’s confidante Leonid Volkov hoped for the cleansing effect of humiliation for Russia – comparable to Germany after the Second World War.
I have described my opinion on this very carefully in the book. I think Russia will have to bear these burdens alone. As well as the burden of having to compensate Ukraine for all the devastation it has committed. And that’s only fair in my opinion. We have to accept that. This is the price we have to pay for allowing Putin into power in our lifetime.
Another hurdle to a Russian “nation-state” that you want to use to replace Putin’s “empire”: According to your proposal, after the collapse of the Putin regime, the regions would have to freely choose to join a Russian federation. Is that after the Violations of mobilization in areas like Dagestan realistic at all?
That’s a complicated question. Yes, people would have to think about it and decide. I cannot rule out that some regions would choose to leave Russia. But I think for reasons of welfare and security that would be an unfavorable decision. One would have to do some persuasion here – that may or may not succeed. It is clear that the over-centralized Russian state structure is of no use to anyone. But in a federalized Russia there would be many arguments for staying. Look at Britain: people were enthusiastic Brexit supporters – now, for the first time, they admit they lost 20 per cent of their gross domestic product because of leaving the EU.
“Oligarch” deaths in Russia: “These people may have known too much”
Another suggestion from your book is to give the “resource rent” from the Russian raw materials to the population. That, frankly, might come as a surprise, given that you yourself once made great fortune as head of the Yukos oil company.
You can of course ask me critical questions about this. But it is important to understand that the Russian state also took the resource rent from me at the time. Every company that extracts resources has two sources of income: one is resource rent, the other normal business profit. The resource rent is taken from companies by several special taxes.
It accounts for 50 percent of the Russian state budget. This money goes to the war and to the various secret services. However, a part also flows back to the population in the form of pensions and other expenses – in exchange for their political loyalty. This money must be kept away from the authorities so they can no longer buy political loyalty! The state should live off the taxes people pay. Because then people will understand that she feed the state, not the other way around.
Following that: In Germany, the deaths of several oligarchs, high-ranking Russian businessmen, have attracted a great deal of interest and guesswork. Do you have a thesis on the background?
It’s not about oligarchs, it’s about people who sit on large streams of money. I think in a situation like we are experiencing now; if there is a need to disguise the provenance of certain fortunes, these people may have known too much. For example, we heard that $300 billion in Russian assets were frozen. This is what the reports from Russian banks show. But I also read recently that only 100 billion is documented as having been frozen – so where is that 200 billion? I don’t think you’re safe anymore if you know the answer.
Alexei Navalny in danger? “If Putin comes under pressure, the risk could increase”
What I asked myself while reading your book: Who are you actually addressing with your suggestions? To a Russian opposition – or rather to a readership in the West?
First of all: I am not an author. Getting myself to write is a bigger challenge. But I was fed up with everyone saying that the Russian opposition had “no vision for the future,” or even for the transition period. I figured I’d write it down and everyone would have the answer in black and white. Now I can say: “Read the book!” Or also: “Give me your book!” Then we can argue. In fact, I was surprised that people in the West were interested in having this book translated. It is written for Russians. In the very direct language in which one writes in Russia or the USA.
One last question: an important figure in the Russian opposition is Alexei Navalny. They experienced the reality of Russian penal camps first-hand. Do you think Navalny is in imminent danger?
All these procedures that are used on him today were developed by me and my colleagues back then. I don’t think Putin wants him dead. He’s a valuable hostage to him. On the other hand, if the Putin regime comes under pressure, the risk for Alexei Navalny could increase. I think he’s aware of that himself.
Interview: Florian Naumann
Khodorkovsky’s book How to Kill a Dragon – A Handbook for Budding Revolutionaries was published by Europa-Verlag on February 15.
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