Russia and Ukraine, under the auspices of the United Nations and Turkish mediation, reached a “grain corridor” agreement that allows the safe export of about 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain, which the United Nations described as a “beacon of hope” for the world as it will contribute to alleviating the global food crisis, and the first ship has left the port of Odessa. On the first of August, three other ships left the port on Friday.
There are 70 ships stuck in Ukraine since the war began in February, some of them already loaded with grain, and many of them are expected to leave in the coming days.
The economic expert, Dr. Abdullah Muhammad Al-Shennawi, confirms that the biggest beneficiaries of the Russian-Ukrainian agreement, which came within the framework of the search for a way out of the global food crisis, are the countries of southern and eastern Africa, but at the same time he called not to be overly optimistic.
Al-Shennawi said: “This agreement will help stave off famines in countries such as Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia. However, the severity of the food crisis will not abate overnight, given the synchronization of the Ukrainian war with drought and conflicts that contribute to creating a supportive environment for the interruption of food supplies, and all of this is conditional, in my opinion.” Successful transaction first.
Speaking to the “Sky News Arabia” website, Dr. Al-Shennawi explains that food price inflation around the world is still high, whether in low or middle-income countries, in addition to high-income countries, noting that the most affected countries are located in the brown continent and North America. Latin America, South Asia, Central Asia and Europe.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has led to many repercussions, represented in the suspension of both Russian exports due to the Western embargo, and Ukrainian exports due to the Russian embargo, and Ukraine’s inability to export grain from its ports, which led to a severe shortage of food supplies to the countries of the Middle East and the continent, to The decrease in the crop area by 25 percent, the decrease in the volume of production by 37 percent, and the lack of export capacity compared to the year before the war, as well as the high costs of paying for foodstuffs as a result of the high prices of grain, rice and wheat, according to El-Shinawy.
As for the bright side of the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian agreement, El-Shennawy says: “There is no doubt that international wheat prices have started to decline in relative terms, against the backdrop of a successful harvest of Chinese wheat, and the evidence for this is that futures prices have returned to pre-war levels, which means Implicitly, lower insurance costs for cargo transported through the Black Sea ports, and this will undoubtedly reduce inflationary pressures and the risk of famine.”
The economist asserts that the possible decrease in prices and the increase in the supply of grain as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian agreement will lead in the medium term to benefit all importing countries and consumers.
It also indicates that in the long term, the global food crisis can be alleviated by reducing tariff and bureaucratic barriers to trade, and not exerting pressure on importing countries of wheat or other grains to stop importing from certain regions, especially Russia, and the need for both Russia and Ukraine to remain part of the regime. Global food trade, in addition to the need to keep agricultural markets open and internationally competitive, to maintain global supply chains and their structures in place to facilitate trade, and to ensure the smooth flow of goods across borders as a guarantee of global food security.
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