Military Alliance Kallas says NATO would liberate Baltic states only half a year after possible Russian invasion – Investigator says statement is a political game

Estonia prime minister Kaja Kallas criticizes this week To the Financial Times military alliance NATO strategy in strong words. The benchmark was the devastation caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Read more: Estonian PM to KT: NATO’s current defense plan wipes Estonia off war

According to the newspaper, Kallas said, for example, that if Russia invaded the Baltics, NATO planned to take over the countries in the region and the military alliance would not “liberate the states” until 180 days, or about six months later.

Senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Ryhor Nizhnikaun According to Kallas, the estimate for half a year is above all a way to emphasize the Baltic perspective at the NATO summit in Madrid starting next week.

“The statement is just a political game just before the summit,” Nizhnikau notes.

EstoniaLatvia and Lithuania will work to advance the goal of changing NATO ‘s defense strategy.

For example, Kallas has proposed that 20,000 to 25,000 NATO troops be deployed in each of the Baltic countries. The majority of these would be Baltics, with around 3,000 to 5,000 foreign soldiers in each country.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas in Brussels on 23 June. Picture: Kenzo Tribouillard / AFP

In the current strategy, there are about a thousand foreign NATO soldiers in each of the Baltic countries.

Nizhnikau questions the meaningfulness of Kallas’s demands.

“If we look at it from Estonia’s point of view, would an additional 2,000 soldiers really matter if Russia were really ready to attack?”

Read more: After years of persuasion, Estonia received NATO troops – HS visited a base where Finland’s future could be seen

Kallas an assessment of the “wiping out” of the Baltic countries Nizhnikau sees as realistic the countries ’military strength and size in hours.

“If it were imagined on a very hypothetical level that Russia would attack the Baltic countries with the same strength as Ukraine, the Baltic countries would probably be destroyed. However, it is extremely unlikely and unbelievable that Russia would attack any NATO country, even a weak one. ”

According to Nizhnikau, Estonia would not even raise the issue in public if it saw the threat as real at the moment.

The location of the Baltic countries is strategically unfavorable for NATO, Nizhnikau says.

“A surprise attack would really wipe out the troops stationed in Estonia. From NATO’s point of view, the most important resources must be kept out of the forefront. “

Everyone The Baltic countries have a strong interest in promoting military alliance cooperation more broadly.

“We know there are uncertainties and problems with NATO’s readiness to act and how quickly the military alliance can respond. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also shown the real deficit in NATO forces and coordination in Europe, ”says Nizhnikau.

The researcher estimates that NATO will make at least symbolic concessions to the Baltic countries in the future.

“The activities of the union are always also politics. Countries that find themselves vulnerable, such as the Baltic countries, will therefore always be given, at least in part, what they need. There will be some redistribution. ”

Eva-Maria Liimets in Helsinki in January 2021, when she was about to start as Estonian Foreign Minister. Picture: Kimmo Räisänen

Estonia former Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets criticized Kallas’ statements on Thursday.

“Defense plans are not made in the articles of the Financial Times, they require trust and understanding,” Liimets told Estonian Broadcasting Corporation According to the ERR.

Liimets accused Kallas of also making statements about “confidential matters” that “the eastern neighbor can now read”. The Estonian Ministry of Defense then stated that Kallas’ statements did not contain any confidential information.

According to ERR, Liimets also stated that the changed security situation requires action not only from NATO but also from the Baltic countries, and that the Baltic countries and Poland made their own recommendations already in the spring.

At the end of January 2021 as Foreign Minister Liimets, who had started, was dismissed from the government earlier in June. The ministers were fired by the President of Estonia At the request of Kallas.