The new Omikron sublines BA.4 and BA.5 are currently doubling weekly. What does that mean for summer? A comparison to last year shows drastic differences.
Berlin – Germany is now used to the change of dominant corona virus variants. But with every increase in a new variant or subvariant, the question also arises: What changes does the new type bring with it? And currently especially: How will summer be in Germany this year?
The omicron subtype BA.2 still dominates the infection process. Like the current one RKI weekly report shows, the proportion of the omicron sublineages BA.4 and BA.5 increases significantly. The percentages double every week (see also table).
Proportion omicron | Proportion of subtype BA.2 | Proportion of subtype BA.4 | Proportion of subtype BA.5 | |
week 19 | 96.1 percent | 0.6 percent | 2.5 percent | |
week 20 | > 99 percent | 93.2 percent | 1.2 percent | 5 percent |
week 21 | > 99 percent | 87.5 percent | 2.1 percent | 10 percent |
Corona virus: increase in BA.4 and BA.5 types – RKI with forecast for the summer
According to estimates by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the sublines will become more widespread, so that “there may be an overall increase in the number of infections and a renewed increase in infection pressure on vulnerable groups of people as early as summer.” BA.4 and BA.5 therefore be the dominant subvariants in a few weeks.
What does that mean specifically for the summer? During the warm seasons, seasonal effects usually reduce the spread of the virus. But “seasonal effects cannot compensate for the spread of the new omicron sublines BA4 and BA.5 if rules of conduct are no longer observed,” according to the RKI.
Virologist Christian Drosten also predicts higher numbers in summer: “We are not experiencing an infection-free summer this year, which is not initially a threat,” the virologist told dpa. For autumn and winter, on the other hand, he expects a long wave of infections. The 7-day incidence in Germany is currently 318.7 (as of June 10th). The comparison to 2021 is clear: there the incidence value was 19, shows the RKI. Karl Lauterbach, meanwhile, was quite cryptic about the Corona wave in the summer.
Coronavirus: BA.4 and BA.5 – Corona sublines do not appear to cause more severe courses
Contrary to reports of higher mortality from Portugal, where BA.5 is currently spreading, the RKI sees no reason to assume that the subtype would be more dangerous than the sublines before. “The data so far do not suggest that infections with BA.4 or BA.5 cause more severe disease courses or proportionately more deaths than BA.1 and BA.2 infections,” says the RKI.
- The current situation in the hospitals in Germany:
- The number of newly hospitalized patients with severe acute infections and respiratory problems has been falling since week 14
- The burden on inpatient and intensive care areas is decreasing
- The number of people treated in intensive care is falling loudly DIVI register: 613 cases (as of June 9) – comparison June 2: 638
Nevertheless, the institute continues to assess the risk from Covid-19 as high. In addition, the RKI emphasizes again that vaccination in particular continues to be of great importance and protects against severe courses. “In particular, risk groups and very old people over the age of 70 should also protect themselves against a serious illness with the 2nd booster vaccination recommended by the STIKO,” it says. Children over the age of five are recommended a one-time vaccination in accordance with the STIKO. The corona virus has now thwarted some German vacationers on a cruise ship. They were not allowed to go ashore in Morocco. (chd)
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