The Russian army appears to be retreating. But ex-US General Repass also sees the Ukrainians under a great burden, so that they cannot benefit from it.
Munich – For Mike Repass, ex-Major General of the US Army, the Russian attack in the Ukraine conflict has passed its zenith. According to this, the Russian army has not had the fighting strength to advance further since March 28th. “I think the Ukrainians noticed this and launched local counterattacks, mainly in the north and west of Kyiv,” said Repass, who advised the Ukrainian army on behalf of the US government for six years, in one CNN-Interview. Counter-attacks in the east had recently begun. (here you can find the current ticker on the military situation in Ukraine)
However, the ex-US general considers the Ukrainian attacks to be less effective than one might expect from media reports. In addition, there are no figures on Ukrainian losses, so Ukraine may not have enough forces to launch a major counterattack. This would make it difficult to push the Russians back as far east as the Donbass. But overall, according to Repass, the information available is not sufficient to provide an accurate picture of the situation.
Ex-US General Repass on Ukraine War: Peace talks are just Russian delaying tactics
Repass believes that the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are just a delaying tactic by the Kremlin, as satisfactory results have not yet been achieved. Unless the Russians had what they wanted, they would not be willing to stop fighting. “I think there will be much more suffering and destruction in Ukraine before there is a ceasefire and a peace deal.”
Ex-US General Repass on the Ukraine war: Putin repeats brutal actions by Grozny, Homs and Aleppo
Repass sees the attack on Belgorod, for which the Ukrainian side denies responsibility, as a sign for the Russians that they can no longer feel safe in their own country. They would have to move units from Ukraine to Russia to protect critical military installations. “But this is also a blow to the Russian belief in their invincibility,” said the ex-general.
Most of all, Repass was surprised by the willingness of the Russians to destroy everything in Ukraine, especially because they said earlier that we are brothers and one people. This can only be compared to the destruction of Grozny in the Chechen war, which the Russians repeated in Homs and Aleppo in Syria. Now Vladimir Putin is destroying Mariupol, he intends to do the same in Kyiv. The reason is that he wants to eliminate potential resistance movements in these cities. This is particularly important in Mariupol to secure the land bridge between Donbass and Crimea.
Ex-US General Repass on Ukraine War: Russian Army Acts Inefficiently
The fact that so many Russian generals were killed in the Ukraine war is very unusual for Repass. For him, this proves that the command structures, technologies and organization of the Russian army are very inefficient. In relation to the organization, he describes the deficits. Accordingly, the Russians formed tactical battalion groups (Battalion Tactical Group BTG) as combat units. Armament and mobility of the units within a BTG are very different. In order for their abilities to really take effect, they would have to be used on the battlefield with the appropriate breadth and depth. But they lack the technology and methods to do this.
In addition, the Ukrainian infrastructure is poor, so that tanks and heavy units have to stay on the narrow streets. This in turn leads to congestion, which is exacerbated by poor radio communications. Solving the problem would require military leaders to move forward, making them easy targets for artillery and snipers.
Ex-US General Repass on Ukraine war: Looming humanitarian disaster in Russia could fuel violence
Repass supports the delivery of S-300 air defense systems to the Ukrainian army. This could create its own no-fly zone. This would put an end to political demands for a NATO-controlled no-fly zone or the delivery of MiG fighter jets.
Repass is concerned about an impending disaster in Russia. Significant humanitarian problems could arise as early as June, for which the West should prepare. There are signs that some foods, such as sugar, are already being rationed. If the internal Russian situation were to destabilize significantly as a result, the ruling elites could act erratically and desperately to stay in power. One consequence could be increased levels of violence in Ukraine to hasten a military outcome.
Ex-US General Repass on the Ukraine war: Putin wants to control the land bridge between Donbass and Crimea
That and expanding the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk would give Putin a chance to claim victory. As a result, a ceasefire could be agreed and peace negotiations begin. However, Repass doesn’t think the Ukrainians will go for it.
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