The governments of African countries that cooperate with the Wagner Group are looking to maintain their presence. With great interest in what is happening inside Russia now, where the future of Wagner will determine the fate of those governments to a large extent.
growing presence
Since the middle of the last decade, the presence of the Wagner Group has increased significantly in a number of politically and security-turbulent African countries. In the Central African Republic, about 2,000 trainers affiliated with the group support government forces in the civil war that has been going on there for more than 10 years; Reports also indicated that there are more than 1,500 fighters affiliated with the group in Libya, and twice that number in the Republic of Mali, which is mired in major security crises in its northern regions. Thousands of the group’s fighters are also deployed in a number of countries in West and East Africa.
In light of the circumstances that emerged on Saturday, the future of Wagner’s presence in African countries is subject to a number of possible scenarios:
- The first scenario is that any crushing defeat would push the group to abandon its foreign activities, foremost of which are the African ones.
- As for the second scenario, which is the most unlikely, it is represented by the group’s penetration further and the increase in the size of its presence on the African continent, and perhaps legalizing it in the form of direct bilateral relations if the current conflict strengthens its position inside Moscow in any way.
- The third scenario, which is the most likely, is that weakening the group’s position in Russia will lead to more focus on the external presence, especially in Africa..
According to what the Chadian journalist Abdullah Abkar sees, Russia was seeking, through the Wagner Group, to restore its influence after thirty years away from the continent.
Abkar told Sky News Arabia that Wagner’s continuation in Africa would depend on its fate inside Russia. He explains, “If Wagner was able to control specific sites and become independent, this would change the equation of its presence in Africa and put the countries in which it is present in front of a new reality that requires dealing with a power independent of Russia, under whose umbrella the group was operating in Africa; but if it did not achieve any victory It will lose its Russian umbrella, and it will become difficult for African countries to expel it or deal with it, which will cause great confusion within the African countries that are currently seeking help.” And it will be very complicated; Especially in light of the ambiguity that currently surrounds the legitimacy of its existence, which is dominated by what looks like a contract to protect those governments in exchange for huge economic privileges for the group.
Russian analyst Julian Radimir expresses this vision by saying that Wagner operates in Africa through a “gray strategy” that mixes different activities in terms of their legal legitimacy..
Those who prefer the third scenario indicate that the group will remain in the countries of the African continent, but with a new approach, based on the large networks of interests that it was able to build during the recent period. Indeed; During the last two years, the group has transformed from a mere contractor fighting to protect the ruling regimes in a number of African countries to a system that includes a multi-group of alliances, companies and commercial relations..
The matter is more evident in Central Africa, where intelligence reports indicate that the forces of its current president, Faustin-Archange Touadera, are receiving increasing support from the Russian Wagner Group. The group also expanded in major economic fields, including the industrial sector, of which France controlled a large share.
And after the last regiment of French forces left Central Africa on the nineteenth of December 2022; Wagner’s forces increased their influence and presence in this resource-rich African country.
Opportunities and challenges
While some believe that the pressures faced by the traditional colonialists; especially France; In a number of African countries, since the end of 2022, it may constitute an opportunity for the expansion of the Wagner Group in countries such as Mali, Central Africa, and Burkina Faso. Others believe that major transformations in other countries, such as Sudan, which was considered by some to be the most important gateway to Africa, could have a negative impact on the group..
On the other hand, any shake-up in Wagner’s position in Africa may constitute a great opportunity for European countries. Especially France, which is working to compensate for the vacuum of its military presence by focusing on the economic dimension in its former African colonies, especially in West Africa.
In fact, France was able to lay a strong foundation for it through the large presence of its trading companies and the continuation of more than 15 African countries to adopt the “CFA franc” denominated in the French currency.
The franc is currently used as a currency in two different monetary regions in Africa since 1945, namely the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community.
The West African Monetary Union region includes 8 member states, namely Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo; As for the Central African Monetary Union, it includes 6 countries, namely Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, the Central African Republic, and Chad..
In this context, Ahmed Gedo, a journalist specializing in African affairs, points out that the conflict between Russia and France in Africa has existed for a long time, but it has intensified remarkably in recent years, especially in the Central African Republic and a number of West African countries.
Gedo explains to Sky News Arabia, “While France sought to preserve its old influence in a number of its former colonies, Russia has been aspiring for years to find a foothold in a number of African countries due to its huge mineral wealth.”“.
The conflict between Russia and France began more than 6 decades ago. In Mali, for example, President Modibo Keita, after the French left in 1960, sought to consolidate his relationship with the then Soviet socialist communist regime; Where the Soviet Union supported Mali with weapons in the face of the Azawad revolutionaries who refused to merge with the nascent state.
Attempts to extend influence have been renewed over the past decade, with the intensification of the conflict over natural resources in the region. And the need for a number of countries in the region to protect from attacks by opposition and extremist groups.
In all cases; Analysts agree that Wagner will continue to spread and grow in the African context unless Western partners work to better reformulate their relations with their African counterparts, especially in light of the great security vacuum faced by African countries that suffer from a significant increase in the presence of terrorist groups or internal civil conflicts..
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