The United States must make a decision next Thursday that could have a high impact on both the Venezuelan electoral process as in its relations with Colombia.
That day the license that the Treasury Department granted last year to Venezuela expires and that allowed the sanctions that weighed on the oil and gas industry in the neighboring country to be temporarily lifted.
As recalled, the administration of President Joe Biden, after the agreements reached in Barbados between members of the government of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition, chose to offer this “carrot” as a strategy to promote a free and democratic electoral process that included the participation of all candidates. However, The fine print included a threat that the sanctions would return if there was no progress in this matter.
On January 31, and after Venezuela confirmed the disqualification against María Corina Machado – winner of the opposition primary process -, the United States drew a new red line by indicating that He would not renew his license, which expires on April 18, if his candidacy was not reinstated by then.
Something that, as is known, has not happened. Various sources consulted by this newspaper in Washington maintain that, except for last-minute developments, The United States will let the license expire. Which, in practice, would be a return to the full sanctions regime that was in force until October of this year.
For Washington, the decision to exclude Machado and his replacement, Corina Yoris, are clear breaches of the Barbados agreements that justify the reimposition of the punishment.
“The Maduro regime, terrified by the recognition that it would lose in a free election, has obviously failed to meet its obligations under the Barbados agreement. This leaves the Biden administration with no choice but to reimpose the sanctions it lifted to encourage a democratic opening. The credibility of the United States is at stake. That doesn't mean it's an easy decision. Reversing sanctions on oil shipments could raise oil prices in an election year and could be an economic blessing for China, a major buyer of Venezuelan oil,” a former US diplomat with extensive experience in the region told this newspaper.
But the door has not closed completely. This week, The White House confirmed an emergency meeting in Mexico between the chargé d'affaires for Venezuela, Francisco Palmieri; the national security advisor for the hemisphere, Dan Erikson, and officials from the Maduro government.
Although according to the United States the meeting was to “express concern about the electoral process in Venezuela,” it is clear that the issue of sanctions, and their reimposition, was on the table.
It is possible, for example, that Washington opts for a partial reimposition of sanctions pending future developments.
In any case, the decision to use “the hammer” against Maduro again leaves Colombia in an uncomfortable position. In fact, and also this week, the Foreign Minister (e) of Colombia, Luis Gilberto Murillo, expressed his total rejection of the sanctions regime just after a meeting with these same US officials in Washington.
In addition, The decision of the Colombian government to “endorse” the elections has not gone down well either. by offering himself as an observer.
“That Colombia agrees to serve as an observer in Venezuela's next fake elections is a gift for Maduro. First, even if there were the appearance of a free and fair process – which it is not – a serious observational effort must be established beforehand to examine conditions, establish baselines on media access, security , selecting polling locations to observe, and a host of other issues. There is no time to do this now,” says this same former diplomat.
“Secondly, and more importantly,” he added, “we already know that Maduro will win. Maduro will use Colombia's 'observation' to claim credibility of a deeply flawed process in which the democratically elected opposition candidate was declared ineligible in what President Petro correctly called an 'undemocratic coup'.”
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI – EL TIEMPO CORRESPONDENT – WASHINGTON
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