According to a newspaper report, the USA and China want to talk about the risks of nuclear weapons for the first time in a long time on Monday. The first aim is to avoid misunderstandings.
It’s surprising news: the USA and China want to, according to a report by… Wall Street Journal meeting for the first time in many years to discuss their nuclear weapons. The talks scheduled for Monday at a high level in both foreign ministries will be about ways to reduce the risk of misjudgments – and thus accidental nuclear strikes – the US newspaper reported, citing US officials. The US goal is to prevent a dangerous arms race with Beijing and Moscow.
China has massively expanded its nuclear arsenal in recent years. For the first time, the USA is confronted with two major nuclear powers whose national security interests largely contradict those of Washington. Although Russia and China have not formed a military alliance, they are united in their common rejection of the USA. Russia and the USA together possess more than 90 percent of all nuclear weapons in the world; the doctrine of “mutually assured destruction” still applies between them. But a nuclear triangle is much more difficult to manage than the usual duel – because no one can be sure whether the other two will not join forces and form a nuclear superiority.
The USA is planning loudly Wall Street Journal, to question China at the talks about its nuclear armament, its nuclear doctrine and its concepts for strategic stability. “We need to discuss with them to better understand their position on these issues,” the paper quoted an unnamed US official as saying. “And hopefully that could lead to a debate about practical steps we could take to manage strategic risks.” In the future, it could possibly also be about concrete disarmament steps. This is not initially planned.
China and the USA: Consultations on Arms Control
There were initially no official confirmations from either side. China’s foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin emphasized on Monday that Beijing wanted to “stabilize relations”. This also included “consultations on arms control and nonproliferation between the United States and China.”
Beijing had it during the Clinton administration in the 1990s Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty/CNTBN) signed. During the Trump administration, however, the People’s Republic rejected proposals to negotiate formal limits on nuclear forces with the USA and Russia. China’s nuclear arsenal is much smaller than that of Washington and Moscow, the argument goes.
China is significantly expanding its nuclear arsenal
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan suggested in a speech in June that China should be gradually included in an arms control dialogue. An agreement could be developed under which China and the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council inform each other about missile test launches. This could later be followed by agreements to establish channels for “crisis communication” between these countries and discussions on nuclear doctrine or spending on nuclear weapons.
Every conversation is helpful because, after years of disarmament, all nine nuclear weapons states are currently pushing ahead with the modernization and operational readiness of their arsenals in view of the growing geopolitical tensions around the world. China had around 400 nuclear warheads in January (see graphic), according to estimates by the US Department of Defense, there are now more than 500. By 2030, according to a current Pentagon report, the number will probably rise to over 1,000. However, Russia and the USA themselves both have more than 5,000 nuclear warheads.
USA and China: thaw and tensions alternate
Relations between the USA and China are currently constantly oscillating between relaxation and escalation. The signs are currently pointing to relaxation once again. According to the White House, the USA and China are working on a personal meeting between US President Joe Biden and China’s head of state Xi Jinping in San Francisco in mid-November. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi traveled to Washington specifically for the preliminary talks. However, official confirmation of the summit is still pending.
Several US ministers and California Governor Gavin Newsom have traveled to China in recent months, some of whom also met Xi. A few days ago, US representatives took part in the international Xiangshan Security Forum in Beijing – although Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was given the platform there to rail against the West. Two new bilateral working groups on economics and finance also began work at the end of October. All of these are positive signals. However, current relationships are so fragile that any disruption is dangerous. The minimum goal is currently peaceful coexistence between the two superpowers.
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