US-Israeli relations: controls and data
The current paths and trends of relations between Israel and the United States are currently moving towards more remarkable entanglement, in light of the emphasis that relations will proceed within specific frameworks and scenarios until a solution is reached in Gaza after the truce negotiations resume again, and the calm in the north, where there are cautious confrontations between the Israeli side and the Hezbollah forces.
It seems that there is no desire for escalation despite what is happening, and this is actually linked to deterrence and counter-deterrence, and the resumption of the policy of assassinations of party members, which will rearrange the political and security calculations along the border area, and is reminiscent of the arrangements that took place after the June 2006 war, and which confirms that matters will proceed in multiple contexts, and in light of truly urgent developments. The United States is awaiting the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on July 24 to deliver a speech before the Senate and Congress in which he will emphasize the limits of the US-Israeli partnership and areas of support, as well as other issues that represent fixed items in the strategic dialogue system between the two countries, and which may confirm the constants of the developments taking place that affect the essence of relations, and push for the necessity of moving from the current tensions to agreeing on the minimum level of political differences, especially in Rafah and towards Hezbollah, regional cooperation, the F-15 and F-35 deals, and options such as agreeing on a two-state solution, which will push the US administration to emphasize several matters, the most important of which is that keeping the situation as it is will affect Israel’s security, which requires responding, even gradually, to what is being proposed, and not stopping at the option of force and exercising it on the ground in light of the possible escalation by some regional factions against Israel in the coming period, regardless of the end of the Gaza war, and the start of full implementation of the security and strategic arrangements deep inside the Strip, while working to calm the northern front for some time.
It seems clear that the United States does not want a new war, and will not support any Israeli attempts to test the pulse of Iran and its agents in the coming period, which requires, according to the American vision, working on the option of calm and no solution, without moving towards escalation at the present time, and moving towards building a new approach without imposing the de facto strategy that the Israeli government is working on at the present time.
In light of the current developments, the US administration is working to prevent the Israeli government, and Prime Minister Netanyahu in particular, from inciting the “Democrats” against the “Republicans” during his upcoming visit to Washington and meeting with the US President, as this will make Netanyahu and his government an active party in the electoral campaign, especially with US President Biden’s fear of transformations, even if formal, from “AIPAC” in managing the electoral process in one way or another, which may restrict the course of US action on the ground and reduce the areas of consensus that the current US administration seeks to reach. In light of the limits within which the paths of relations between the two countries are moving after it was proven that the differences raised between the two sides were influential in the course of the confrontations in Gaza, and then towards “Hezbollah”, which recently prompted the US administration to play the role of a mediator closely with France in Lebanon after US contacts with mediators in the region focused on the Gaza war, which confirms that the US mediator does not want to limit the paths of action in light of what is happening unilaterally in Gaza by the Israeli government, and which confirms that Israel – according to the US vision – must work in the direction of responding to what the US administration is calling for at the present time in particular, Israel does not have the ability to wage war on more than one front at the same time, and there are American fears that push for the need to move forward with consensual options at least until the presidential elections are held.
In general, this American perception of Israel goes to pass Israeli demands outside Congress, and according to the federal emergency clause granted to the US President and Secretary of State, which is what happened, as Secretary Anthony Blinken previously signed a deal under this emergency clause, which may give important indications about the consensual policies related to both sides, and strongly pushes for cautious dealing, and not actually clashing in the coming period. The scene of relations seems to need to rearrange priorities, and tasks that can be built upon, and work according to its proposed political and strategic system.
It can be confirmed, then, that what links Washington and Tel Aviv at the present time is a shared desire not to clash, and to work on areas of agreement, even if temporary, to reach a solution to some crises, as the bets that each party is putting forward in the face of the other to achieve its main goals within the framework of the options that are taking place require working on more than one path, and within the framework of multiple directions, waiting for the stage after the presidential elections in the United States.
*Academic specialized in strategic affairs.
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