The President of the United States, Joe Biden (Democrat), withdrew his candidacy for re-election and declared support for the vice president Kamala Harris (Democrat). The 3,896 Democratic delegates who pledged their allegiance to the chief executive in the party primaries can follow the president’s wishes, but by rule they are not obligated to do so.
The party has 3 possible routes to replace him:
A 1st of them would be to achieve unanimity around Kamala’s candidacy. The Democratic National Convention will be held from August 19 to 22, 2024, in Chicago. The party, however, had exceptionally planned a virtual vote in the first week of August to officially nominate Biden.
This online vote could be postponed or canceled, but if Democratic leaders can achieve unity among delegates, the vice president could be officially named as a candidate.
A 2nd route would be to form unity around another candidate. To this end, Democrats could hold debates among those who express interest in the nomination. The short time frame, however, is an obstacle to this scenario.
Such a virtual vote is unusual in the United States. It was planned specifically to confirm Biden as the candidate before Ohio’s Aug. 7 filing deadline. State lawmakers in a special session resolved the issue, but the event has been postponed for now.
Without virtual voting, the party’s decision would be left to the convention – 3rd route available. This scenario opens up the possibility of an “open” convention, that is, when no candidate arrives with a clear majority of delegates, something that has not happened with the Democrats for 56 years.
What can happen at the convention
If a candidate is chosen before the convention, the vote would be taken and the ceremony would proceed as usual. If no candidate is chosen, each candidate must have the signatures of at least 300 delegates to appear on the convention ballot — no more than 50 from a single state.
Each delegate can only support one name. Signatures can be collected before or during the event.
The next step is a 1st vote with only delegates “committed”. If a majority is obtained, the candidate is made official. If not, there is a second round of voting in which the “superdelegates” can vote. The voting is repeated, round after round, until a majority is formed.
“Pledged” delegates are those who, by rule, vote based on what was decided by voters in their state. “Superdelegates” do not have their vote tied to a candidate; they are members of the party’s National Committee, the House of Representatives or the Senate. There are 3,949 delegates. “committed” and 749 “superdelegates”.
This time, exceptionally, as the primary winner, Biden, dropped out of the race, all the delegates who had pledged to his candidacy would be free and could choose a candidate on their own.
According to the newspaper Washington PostIn 1924, Democrats needed 103 rounds of voting to decide to support candidate John Davis. Davis was defeated in the election by Republican Calvin Coolidge.
The more internal discussions, the lower the chance of victory
For journalist Carlos Eduardo Lins da Silva, an expert in international affairs, the more time Democrats spend on internal discussions, the lower their chances of winning the election against former President Donald Trump (Republican).
In an article published in Poder360he recalls that until the first half of the 20th century, presidential candidates were chosen at party conventions, through non-transparent negotiations between regional leaders.
“It is difficult for this system to be acceptable in the third decade of the 21st century,” he says.It is more likely that the consensus that was reached about Biden’s unviability will be sought again to close ranks around Harris, even with many people’s reservations about her.”
If the governors who have been floated as options to Harris announce their support for her, that process could happen relatively quickly, he says.The party leadership had been working to move up Biden’s selection through a virtual vote the week of August 5, ahead of the convention. This could be a path to a more immediate resolution.”
In 1968, the last time the Democrats decided on a candidate at a convention, the chosen one was then Vice President Hubert Humphrey (Democrat), he recalls.
“That year, after Johnson’s withdrawal in March and the assassination in June of Robert Kennedy, who had won important primaries that made him the favorite, the party arrived in Chicago divided and chose vice president Humphrey, but with protests that ended in bloody clashes between demonstrators and police on the city streets,” he says.
Humphrey was defeated by Richard Nixon (Republican) by a narrow margin in the popular vote, but by a landslide in the Electoral College, he adds. “The ghost of 1968 looms over the leaders of the Democratic Party. They must try to drive it away decisively.”
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