Nearly two years after the tsunami caused in the international economy by the appearance of the new coronavirus, experts around the world are trying to assess the impact of the increase in omicron infections after the unstable recovery of 2021.
– Is global growth threatened? –
The magnitude of the economic losses of the new variant is uncertain, but growth could suffer both from sanitary restrictions and from the damage caused by the contagious omicron in the companies’ workforce.
The director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warned in early December for a downward revision of world growth projections, currently at 5.9% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022. This change may be communicated at the end of January.
In the United States, “the micron is already causing damage”, confirms the chief economist of the risk rating agency Moody’s, Mark Zandi, who estimates a growth of 2.2% in the first quarter, against 5.2% before the impact of the new variant.
These disturbances should dissipate from the second trimester, he believes.
In the eurozone, Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, estimates that restrictions such as the confinements applied in the Netherlands or Austria will cause a slowdown in the first quarter, followed by a recovery, if the epidemic’s peak is reached. in January.
“Each wave does less damage to the healthcare system and the economy than the previous one,” sums up Zandi.
Uncertainty is greatest in emerging countries, with less vaccination coverage, and in China, which continues to apply draconian restrictions based on its “zero covid” strategy.
– Which sectors are most affected? –
Thousands of flights canceled while on vacation, cruises diverted or suspended, hotel bookings falling… The omicron has hampered the long-awaited recovery of the travel industry, especially hit by the pandemic.
The entertainment industry also fears that the explosion of cases will drive customers away from casinos, theaters, or movie theaters.
But in financial markets, these sectors have been getting stronger and stronger for weeks.
“The market seems to be projecting itself in the post-omicron”, explains Alexandre Baradez, an analyst at investment firm IG France.
As of Dec. 20, Carnival Cruise Company shares have risen by nearly 20%; that of Air France, 15%; and that of the engine and construction materials manufacturer Caterpillar, almost 25%.
These values, which depend heavily on the economic situation, illustrate the hope of an imminent economic normalization.
– Will inflation worsen? –
Before the omicron, inflation rates in the United States and the eurozone were at their highest level in decades. And this phenomenon can be accelerated.
“People who stay at home because of the variant are more likely to spend their money on consumer goods rather than services like restaurants and entertainment,” says Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the NRF Federation of American Traders.
Global supply chains are already strained, causing shortages of materials and raw materials. An increase in demand can make prices even more expensive.
This is the scenario feared by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American Central Bank), which plans to anticipate its calendar to raise rates, according to the minutes of its last meeting.
In other economies, such as Brazil or Nigeria, households are seeing their purchasing power fall due to double-digit inflation, and the British economy is on the verge of contraction, according to the country’s chambers of commerce.
– What will happen with the aid? –
The massive business aid programs in the spring of 2020, which added $226 trillion to global debt last year according to the IMF, seem like a thing of the past.
“The use of programs like partial unemployment made sense at a time when uncertainty was total and the entire industry was paralyzed”, says Niclas Poitiers, a researcher at the Bruegel Institute.
But the planet has learned to live with covid-19 and, “now, we are talking about launching more structural aid programs, such as Build Back Better (which provides for social and environmental reforms in the United States), or Next Generation”, the plan for ecological and digital transition of the European Union, he adds.
There is, however, still more concentrated aid for the hardest hit sectors, such as the French or British programs for the tourism, hotel and catering sectors.
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