4 questionsThe world has watched Russia in amazement: 24 hours of chaos amidst a mutiny that has underlined one thing: the House of Putin is seriously cracked. What happened?
In a nutshell: Evgeny Prigozhin, an upswing businessman and boss of the mercenary army Wagner (25,000 strong) appeared to be committing a coup on Friday and Saturday by taking the southern Russian city of Rostov with his troops withdrawn from Ukraine and then to send a military column to Moscow.
According to Prigozhin, this was not a coup but a ‘march of justice’. He demanded the heads of the Russian army command for alleged criminal mismanagement in the war in Ukraine. Among other things, the soldiers there would be poorly supplied. Putin opted for the (criticized) army command and accused his old friend Prigozhin of treason and armed insurrection. After 24 hours of chaos and panic in the Kremlin, Prigozhin ordered his men back to their base. Mediation by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko offered a way out and Prigozhin was allowed (with a quick amnesty for him and his troops) to leave for the neighboring country. The Wagner soldiers were conscripted into the Russian army. Many details about the events are still unknown, but it is certain that Vladimir Putin comes out badly here.
Has Putin now repelled this attack on his throne and remains untouchable in power?
Yes and no, because the Russian president is indeed still there (don’t ask how) but still seems weaker than ever. Most worrying to him must have been to see regular army units apparently refusing to fight against the revolting Wagner troops. In Rostov, Prigozhin’s men were even welcomed with coffee and sandwiches by the citizens as ‘our boys’. Prigozhin, who – unlike the president who often stays in his bunker – does appear among the troops at the front, proves to be popular on the street. What will Putin do? Blaming all this on the Americans? Not only in the United States and Europe, but also in Ukraine, people are now concerned about the cornered cat that could make strange (nuclear) jumps. Developments in Russia were therefore closely monitored in the White House.
How much damage did Prigozhin actually do?
Although the uprising seems over and Prigozhin claims that it was without bloodshed (at least one helicopter was shot down by his men), the Wagner boss has thrown another huge stone into the pond in addition to his march to Moscow. In a video the day before entering Rostov, the Wagner boss contradicted all of the Kremlin’s (invented) arguments for starting the war against Ukraine. So many Russian boys died because of cynical power games, according to Prigozhin. Those statements were heard by all Russian soldiers. They can fuel existing doubts about the usefulness of the war and also about the competence of Putin and other leaders. In addition, the Russian army has taken control of 25,000 critical mercenaries while their leader has gone into exile.
Is the ‘Putin system’ bankrupt?
Precisely to prevent this kind of revolt, former KGB member Putin had set up a ‘system’ in which the armed forces in the country were split up and had to work together for his favors (read: reward through corruption and other bribes). The army, the national guard, the secret services, police services and mercenary organizations such as Wagner (there are more) all have their own men and heavy weapons. All that costs money. But Putin’s divide-and-conquer tactics only work if the big boss has unquestionable power, position and capacity to play off rival factions against each other. That parties now turn against him or half-heartedly support him raises the question among Russia experts “what this aborted uprising means for the loyalty of Russia’s poorly trained and demoralized regular forces, as well as for Russia’s notoriously complacent populace, confused oligarchs and the already disillusioned national leaders from China to Chechnya,” said a US analyst.
Because does this mutiny also have consequences beyond the Russian borders?
That could hardly be otherwise, because Putin in particular likes to profile himself as the grand master of the geopolitical chess game. That is difficult to maintain when frogs are already jumping out of the wheelbarrow at home. We will therefore see how all this affects the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. But Putin’s panicky TV appearance (Saturday) has of course also been seen in Iran, China and in the Arab and African world where Putin thought he was gaining ground precisely through his strongman poses.
The time to make other leaders wait for hours and lecture seems to be over. This will certainly not happen to the publicly squeamish Belarusian leader Lukashenko any time soon. He, the weakest link, may have saved Putin by offering Prigozhin a way out. Putin’s international counterparts (dictators) have no reason to take him seriously if even Putin’s own “flatterers” no longer do.
US officials are especially monitoring Russia’s nuclear arsenal and focusing on preventing disorder.
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