The political and social situation in Venezuela remains stagnant, but contacts continue to take place at the highest level to try to unblock the situation. The president of the National Assembly of Venezuela and right-hand man of Nicolás Maduro, Jorge Rodríguez, met three weeks ago in Doha, the capital of Qatar, with Juan González, adviser to Joe Biden, according to official sources. The meeting was held without the presence of mediators or third parties.
Qatar has gained an unexpected role in the mediation between the White House and the Chavista government. In addition to hosting this meeting, he has taken steps to intercede between the two countries, which have hardly come close in recent months. Despite the urgency of organizing guaranteed elections in Venezuela in 2024, the coldness is absolute. The monarchy headed by the Al Thani family has occupied the space left by Colombia, which has gone from being fully involved during the first months of Gustavo Petro’s government to removing the issue from its foreign policy priorities.
Rodríguez and González, adviser for the Western Hemisphere in the US National Security Council, met to establish a direct channel of communication, according to these same sources. At the meeting they talked about the release of prisoners and the need to normalize political life in Venezuela, something that today seems very distant. These types of meetings at the highest level are common in processes as entrenched and complex as that of Venezuela and its relationship with the United States, but they are kept secret so that no one can interfere in the dialogue. Neither Rodríguez nor González, consulted by this newspaper, wanted to comment on it.
No date for the elections
The positions between the United States and Venezuela are very far apart. Maduro has not set a date to hold the general elections in which, in theory, there should be an opposition candidate who could challenge him for the presidency. The resignation of the National Electoral Council (CNE) has made it difficult to hold the opposition primaries. In addition, Caracas demands the release of Alex Saab, the Colombian businessman ally of Maduro tried in the United States for money laundering and corruption and whom Chavismo considers a Venezuelan diplomat. The White House has interpreted these gestures as a challenge from Chavismo and a clear sign that he does not give in despite international pressure, which demands a democratization of the country.
Maduro’s argument to maintain an iron position is that the US has not lifted the international sanctions that weigh on its government. Chavismo blames these punishments for the deep economic crisis that the country has been experiencing for the past seven years. “If they want free elections, we want sanctions-free elections,” the president said in November. The statement leaves no room for second interpretations. Chavismo has also blamed Biden for not releasing the Venezuelan funds frozen abroad —between 3,000 and 5,000 million dollars—, as they had agreed with the opposition at the dialogue table in Mexico at the end of last year. That money, managed by a UN trust, was a breath of fresh air for the serious Venezuelan crisis.
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However, the US considers that Maduro, after showing goodwill to negotiate, is suddenly immobile. Other countries have the same opinion. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and Petro himself had asked him to specify a date for the elections to get closer to positions, but he has not done so and it does not seem that he will do so in the short term. Washington granted a license to the Chevron oil company to operate on Venezuelan soil, which seemed like an outstretched hand. From that moment on, the most optimistic believed that the concessions on either side were going to happen, but the reality is that this has not been the case. No progress has been made in the last semester.
Maduro has no intention of giving up ground or facilitating any path. In recent months he has recovered internal authority and diplomatic jurisdiction. After years without leaving the country, he has been seen at some international and regional summits. The economic situation has overcome the terrible moment experienced two years ago thanks to oil revenues and a certain liberalization of the economy, although growth is still within the reach of very few. With all this, the president has toughened his demands in the framework of political negotiations with the opposition.
The outlook is not rosy. Talks with the opposition in Mexico have been paralyzed since November and Chavismo refuses to return to the table. Now, Maduro demands the full and non-progressive lifting of the sanctions, as had been agreed, in order to restart the dialogue. With this schism difficult to resolve, both parties found themselves in Qatar, an unsuspected place. The secret meeting, which now transcends, means building a bridge, even if it is minimal, between two actors who do not have any confidence. The results remain to be seen.
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