Radical right-wing populist parties achieved exceptional results in the European Parliament elections, coming first in France, Italy and three other countries. They won almost a quarter of the seats in Parliament, just behind the centre-right.
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With Europe reeling from war in Ukraine, the threat of a second Donald Trump presidency in the United States, stagnant living standards, strained welfare systems and extreme weather events, nationalists pose a serious threat. threat. ANDThese parties are often sympathetic to Russian President Vladimir Putin and are frankly hostile to green policies, migrants and the institutions of the European Union.
Given this scenario, the main pro-European parties They have three main options to respond: complacency, co-optation or counterattack.
Let’s start with the option of continuing as before. Many Europeans mistakenly believe that the European elections are inconsequential. Participation is lower than in national elections, and Many people vote in protest, often against the ruling parties.
Still, pro-European parties secured a majority in the next Parliament. The center-right European People’s Party (EPP), led by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, gained seats (from 182 to 184).
It must be taken into account that the radical right parties are deeply divided between two rival parliamentary groups that They disagree on the war in Ukraine, economic policy, LGBTI rights and, above all, whether to work within the EU system or out and against it. Inevitably, these disagreements dilute his influence.
In that sense, complacency is dangerous. The center remains only because its definition is increasingly broader, encompassing not only the EPP and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D, which lost 15 seats and was left with 139 seats), but also the liberals and socialists of Renew Europe ( lost 28 seats in these elections) and to the Greens (they will go from 74 to 52 seats).
With these matches, Von der Leyen appears to have enough votes in Parliament to be re-elected president of the Commission, but with a very small margin. Of course, anything can happen in a secret vote. And, in the event of his re-election, this does not suggest a strong and stable pro-European center bloc, especially since the EPP gained ground in part by campaigning against the green agenda.
![The leader of the French Rassemblement National (RN) party, Marine Le Pen (i), addresses the militants.](https://imagenes.eltiempo.com/uploads/2024/06/11/6668ed97a6fb9.jpeg)
The leader of the French Rassemblement National (RN) party, Marine Le Pen (i), addresses the militants.
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More worryingly, the elections reordered the political landscape in key Member States. Despite its neo-Nazi tendencies and dubious links to Russia and China, the extremist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) came second in Germany, ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD). In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won 32 percent of the vote, more than double that of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist allies. This crushing defeat led Macron to call early elections.
In that order of things, Europe’s two most powerful leaders were severely weakenedleaving the bloc potentially rudderless in the face of immense economic, climate and security challenges.
Co-option
The second option, then, is to bring the radical right closer together. Many center-right parties adopt the language and policies of the radical right, especially in immigration matters. Even in several member states they govern together.
In the European Union, pragmatists maintain that some radical right parties can integrate into the conservative current. For example, Von der Leyen has courted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloniwho has presented herself as a traditional conservative, despite the fascist roots of her party, Brothers of Italy (FdI), and has raised her profile by working with the institutions of the European Union, rather than “against” them (this It’s an old trick: after a clash with European Union authorities that almost led to Greece’s expulsion from the eurozone in 2015, the hard-left government of the Syriza coalition was eventually drawn into the pro-European camp).
The risk is that the radical right co-opts the center-right, rather than the vice versa strategy. Let us remember how the approach towards asylum seekers has gone from the reception policy of then German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2015 to almost universal hostility today.
Furthermore, lRadical right parties may gain strength as their views become normalized, as demonstrated by the victory of Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Dutch general elections last year (Wilders is branded as an Islamophobe by the European media and his party, during the campaign, promised that it would bring forward a referendum for permanence or not of the country in the European Union).
Above all, embracing the radical right can backfire. For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party was once in the EPP and He is now a pro-Putin renegade who despises the rule of law and democratic rights. And while Meloni may be acceptable to some centrists, no one seems willing to work with the French National Rally, much less the German AfD.
Counterattack
![The president of France, Emmanuel Macron.](https://imagenes.eltiempo.com/uploads/2024/06/11/6668ee55a7d09.jpeg)
The president of France, Emmanuel Macron.
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Then the third option remains: face the radical right. Macron has chosen to follow this path by calling early legislative elections. YesThis is a risky bet, given Macron’s unpopularity and the hostility of the electorate. France could elect a radical right-wing prime minister in a second round next month. In that case, Macron would become a lame duck for his remaining three years in office.
In any case, his position was (and is) very weakened and his government coalition, which lacks a parliamentary majority, was also at risk of losing a vote of no confidence. By dissolving the National Assembly, Macron has regained the initiative, creating two possible ways to defeat the radical right represented in Le Pen’s party.
On the one hand, the strategy can focus voters’ attention on the threat from the radical right, which could help Macron assemble a parliamentary majority made up of left and right parties united in their desire to keep the Rally at bay. National. That seems unlikely, given Macron’s unpopularity.
The most plausible thing is that Macron’s strategy will succeed in making the radical right fail. Populists tend to perform better when they are outsiders that challenge the established parties, not when they exercise responsibility. Let us also remember how The UK Conservatives, having fulfilled their Brexit promise, have been hit by reality, and also, after a few months in the Government, the popularity of Wilders’ PVV has fallen in the Netherlands.
If the National Rally wins a majority, or ends up leading a broader right-wing coalition, it will likely have to grapple with the tough responsibilities of governing, such as difficult fiscal decisions, and whether and how to cooperate with EU institutions. . Moderating his hardline policies could erode his anti-establishment character; enacting them could plunge the country into a crisis. In any case, this could undermine the popularity of its leader, Marine Le Pen, in the face of her probable presidential candidacy. Better a radical right prime minister in 2024 than a radical right president in 2027.
PHILIPPE LEGRAIN
© PROJECT SYNDICATE
LONDON
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