Allies in the world: it’s time for (field) choices
With the comment of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Antonio Tajani
Almost a year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fears of an economic crisis linked to war and the energy crisis are growing among Italians, as is uncertainty about the outcome of the conflict, while fear of the pandemic is receding. But there is also something else that flows under the track. Like the progressive but continuous estrangement between China and the West. Or ambivalence towards the EU: on the one hand, less trust in the European Parliament due to Qatargate, on the other, the desire to invest in a single European army. Now in its ninth year, the ISPI survey conducted by IPSOS asks Italians some key questions on international politics over the last twelve months. What do Italians think of the crucial events of the last year and of the underlying trends in international politics? What are the main threats to Italy? And how do Italians judge relations with the main European and international partners? The ISPI survey commented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Antonio Tajani:
1. Threats, Italy: the specter of the economic crisis returns, the pandemic collapses
Even in the year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the conflict is indicated only as the third threat to Italy (8% of preferences). However, the fear of a new economic crisis is growing (from 43% in 2021, the lowest figure ever, to 52% today), which in all probability reflects the consequences of the conflict and the energy crisis. On the other hand, the perception that the pandemic is still an important threat to Italy collapses (from 19% to 3%).
2. Allies in the world: it’s time for (field) choices
The post-invasion world is increasingly polarized and divided into blocs. When Italians are asked whether some actors or countries are or are not an ally of Italy in the world, their opinions become more and more clear-cut.
NATO, the EU and the United States are perceived as allies by at least 60% of Italians, with the EU and the US growing compared to previous surveys, and NATO gathering even more support than the European Union (64% vs 62%). On the other hand, the perceptions of an “alliance” towards China and Russia are collapsing. Those to Beijing were already in sharp decline in 2021, and continue their decline today (from 36% in 2020 to 16% today). Those towards Moscow, which in 2021 had experienced a more moderate decline, are now collapsing (from 28% in 2021 to 10% this year).
3. Russia, the bete noire of the world
Last as a possible ally, Russia instead leaps forward as the first threat to the world. Up five positions, Moscow is indicated as the greatest threat by over a third of Italians (36%, almost fivefold compared to 8% in previous years).
China falls to second place, which only last year the Italians indicated as the greatest threat (from 34% to 13%), not far from the United States (growing from 9% to 13%). On the other hand, interest in “minor” countries collapsed, even those like Iran in the throes of internal upheavals (dropped from 19% to 6%) and North Korea (from 14% to 5%).
4. … but one must also be wary of Beijing
Although Russia occupies the thoughts of many, so much so as to undermine Beijing in the ranking of threats to the world, when asked directly about Beijing, Italians seem to agree: among those expressing an opinion, more than three quarters (78%) argue that China is not reliable.
For this reason, Italians agree with the Italian government’s decision to impose more health checks on people arriving in Italy from China. Only a small minority (10%) consider China a reliable partner, while a similar proportion of citizens (12%) disagree with more health checks because they believe the pandemic is over, and not because they think it’s right to trust Beijing.
5. Ukraine: fewer and fewer certainties
On the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Italians mostly agree on one thing: the uncertainty that surrounds it. If last April, less than two months after the outbreak of the conflict, there were exactly one in four (25%) people who did not have an opinion on its possible outcome, today this share has risen to one in three (33%) .
On the other hand, the share of people who believe that the conflict could be resolved through a peace agreement has dropped (from 44% to 31%), which however remains the most probable option for those who choose to take a stand. The share of Italians who believe that the conflict could lead to a coup d’état in Russia rises (from 10% to 16%).
6. … except for entry into the EU
However, there is one thing Italians seem to agree on: Ukraine should, sooner or later, join the European Union. Among the Italians who express an opinion on the matter, exactly two out of three (67%) are in favor.
Within this position, however, the belief that Ukraine should wait a certain time before making its entry prevails (38%) compared to those who believe that Kiev should be accepted immediately within the most important European assembly ( 29%).
7. Qatargate “distrusts” the European Parliament
After the Qatargate scandal, the trust of Italians in the European Parliament seems to have greatly diminished. Only 11% of them believe that the European Parliament has not lost credibility following the scandal, while for 4 out of 10 Italians the EP has “completely” lost its credibility (41%).
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