The largest geomagnetic storm in more than 20 years produced a very unusual natural spectacle between May 10 and 12 — the northern lights in countries such as Spain — and caused an artificial phenomenon that had never happened before. For the first time, the arrival of an intense gust of solar wind on Earth triggered the migration of half of all active satellites, According to a preliminary study conducted by American scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). As the Sun is in its most active phase, it is possible that storms like that one will repeat themselves this year or next.
The authors of the investigation warn that such a quantity of unforeseen movements rendered useless, during the days of the storm and the following ones, the security systems designed to prevent collisions on the low earth orbit. In this area of space surrounding our planet, up to an altitude of 1,000 kilometers, there are both the two space stations — in which Western astronauts and Chinese taikonauts permanently live — and a multitude of scientific observation, navigation and telecommunications satellites. These include: the more than 6,200 Starlink satellites from Elon Musk’s company SpaceX, intended to provide global coverage of high-speed wireless internet.
The rapid proliferation of such devices is the biggest change in the space surrounding Earth since the last solar superstorm, happened in October 2003when barely There were 850 active satellites compared to the current 10,000. Their mass launch began in 2019, and they have been changing the appearance of the night sky to the naked eye ever since, and astronomers have warned that they interfere with important research such as detecting dangerous asteroids heading for Earth.
And now, mega-constellations of satellites have become the protagonists of an unprecedented phenomenon, for which space traffic surveillance systems are not prepared. This is the warning of the new study, which has just been accepted for publication in the next issue of the journal Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets. William E. Parker, lead author of the research, explains to EL PAÍS that “when unexpected events occur, such as a geomagnetic storm that drags thousands of satellites [hacia la Tierra]“It is almost impossible for us to predict the future positions of satellites. This leaves us blind to potential collisions in the short term. It is like driving a car in oncoming traffic with your eyes closed.”
Parker explains in the work that when the solar wind of a geomagnetic storm reaches the Earth, in addition to the charged particles interacting with the magnetosphere and generating the auroras, another phenomenon also occurs that is neither visible nor well known: the upper parts of the atmosphere heat up and swell like a soufflé. This increases the friction on the satellites; and these, when slowed down, lose height (up to almost 200 meters a dayduring the last superstorm).
On May 10, 2024, Earth witnessed the largest satellite mass migration in history due to a geomagnetic storm. Approximately 5,000 satellites, primarily @SpaceX #Starlink units equipped with GNSS receivers and autonomous maneuvering capabilities, had to adjust their altitudes to… pic.twitter.com/12c1uWRs6F
— Erika (@ExploreCosmos_) July 11, 2024
So the May solar storm caused a widespread and rather abrupt drop—relative to their normal rate—in low-Earth orbit satellites. Parker and his supervisor in MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Richard Linares, observed this drag toward Earth using publicly available data from NASA’s NASA/ESA. tracking all 10,000 active satellites, The analysis then revealed something unprecedented: About 5,000 of the satellites that had been swept up by the solar storm began to ascend. Most of these unexpected maneuvers, Parker and Linares explain in their article, were satellites in the Starlink constellation, which are capable of autonomously boosting themselves back into normal orbit. In this way, the satellites decided on their own to maneuver after the disturbance they suffered.
SpaceX boasts of this capacitywhich allows it to maintain its service in the event of incidents. But the authors of the new research highlight that such a large number of unplanned movements, carried out in just a few hours, invalidated the forecasts for the following week of close encounters – within 100 metres – between satellites and other objects in orbit – including small fragments of space debris measuring 10 centimetres or more – which travel at around 30,000 kilometres per hour. After the storm and the mass migration, Parker and Linares explain that the space anti-collision systems had to be restarted with the new ephemerides of the satellites, in order to recalculate the probabilities of encounters in the following days.
David Galadí, a researcher at the University of Córdoba who studies the effect of mega satellite constellations on astronomy, points out a worrying fact: “Since SpaceX began launching Starlink satellites, ESA has doubled the number of collision avoidance maneuvers.” To minimize risks, these maneuvers occur when it is estimated that the satellites will be in a safe position. a probability of impact greater than 1 in 10,000. But Galadí asks not to fall into alarmism and remembers that collisions, although they have already happenedremain highly unlikely in low Earth orbit.
For Alejandro Sánchez, an astrophysicist at the Complutense University of Madrid, what is more worrying than the current risk of collision is the lack of regulation. “We need More studies are needed to quantify the riskbecause there are people up there, in space stations. This is moving too fast and without planning,” says this scientist, who denounces that no operator that puts a satellite into orbit is obliged to equip it with a system to avoid collisions; and that the agencies that authorize the launches Nor do they require them to comply with common regulations space security. “Those who do something, like SpaceX, do it on their own to protect their devices and their business,” concludes Sánchez.
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