The events of June 24, 2023 caused analysts worldwide to search for the right term to describe what was happening in Russia: Coup, uprising, insurrection?
The first effects are the exposure of Putin’s fragility to control and exercise his power, as well as doubts about his ability to achieve a Russian victory over Ukraine.
Did Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, seriously believe that he would be able to enter Moscow with his troops? You may have considered that Vladimir Putin would agree to your demand to fire the Defense MinisterSergei Shoigu, and the chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, two men whom he has harshly criticized for their conduct in the war in Ukraine.
From a more radical perspective, Prigozhin may have expected support from members of the Russian military. And that seemed to be the case in Rostov-on-Don on June 24, when his group met no resistance as it seized control of the city, and headed north through Voronezh and Lipetsk oblasts. Although they were allegedly attacked by a helicopter gunship, which they shot down. Prigozhin claimed to command 25,000 soldiers, but the actual figure may be half that.
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With that number or not, lThe uprising of short duration and without clear objectives will have lasting effects in Russia. The first to be noticed: the exposure of Putin’s fragility in controlling and exercising his power, as well as doubts about his ability to achieve a Russian victory over Ukraine.
Putin’s impotence
Alexandr Lukashenko, President of Belarus.
Prigozhin’s failed insurrection undermined the image of a “strong man” that Putin reflected on world leaders and ordinary Russians.
The Russian president was unable to do anything to stop Prigozhin’s rebel military unit as it seized control of Rostov-on-Don, home to Russia’s South Military Headquarters, and then advanced on the M4 highway toward Moscow in armored cars. Putin was forced to give a televised speech at 10 a.m. on June 24. describing the revolt as “a stab in the back” and calling for severe punishment for the rioters.
It was the intervention of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that put an end to the uprising, not Putin’s words or actions. Uncharacteristically and on the brink of civil war, both Prigozhin and Putin exercised restraint and backtracked on their promises by agreeing to a compromise that allowed Prigozhin to escape punishment.
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Exiled Russian political analyst Kirill Rogov said the most challenging effect for Russia’s leaders will not be the uprising itself, but the rhetoric that Prigozhin used to justify his actions.
In an interview broadcast on social networks a day before taking control of Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin was of the opinion that the war in Ukraine was a mistake from the beginning and that it was launched for the benefit of the personal interests of the minister Defense and an inner circle of oligarchs. In addition, Prigozhin dismissed all the ideological claims that Putin has made about the war, such as the need to denazify Ukraine or the threat of NATO expansion. “Our holy war turned into a mob,” he said.
Prigozhin’s words and actions, in addition to exposing the vulnerability of Putin’s hold on power, also sthey point to the emptiness from which he ideologically frames the war in Ukraine and Russia’s place in the world.
nationalist discontent
Putin’s constant mantra is that any opposition to his rule, whether from kyiv or from protesters back home, is part of a Western conspiracy to undermine Russia. Hence it is hard to imagine that their propagandists would try to justify that Prigozhin it is also a tool of the West.
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In the last 10 years and especially since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has relentlessly deployed the coercive apparatus of the state to crush any liberal opposition. At the same time, he has allowed radical nationalists like Prigozhin a free microphone to speak.
Most were kept out of state-controlled television broadcasts, but they have reached a broader Russian audience through social media channels such as Telegram, VKontakte and YouTube.
![](https://www.eltiempo.com/images/1x1.png)
The head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Thanks to this, Prigozhin, an ex-convict who came to provide catering services for the Kremlin before founding the Wagner Group, he has seen his profile and popularity rise in Russia during the war in Ukraine. In a May 2023 poll by the Levada Center, Prigozhin appeared among the top 10 political figures trusted by Russians.
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It is unclear why Putin tolerated nationalists like Prigozhin as they increasingly questioned Russia’s performance in the war. It may be because the Russian president is ideologically aligned with them or saw them as useful in balancing the power of the generals.
Perhaps, too, Putin has come to believe, in his own propaganda, that no one could be more nationalist than himself, and that Russia and Putin were one. This is a thought that echoes presidential aide Vyacheslav Volodin’s comment in 2014: “Without Putin, there is no Russia.”
Certainly, discontent among nationalists had already grown before Wagner’s uprising. On April 1, 2023, a group of prominent bloggers, including Igor Girkin and Pavel Gubarev, announced the formation of the “Club of Angry Patriots”, which issued a statement of indirect support for Prigozhin on June 24.
Prigozhin is presumed already in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, where, in theory at least, he can do Putin less harm. But in Moscow there are still some politically active malcontents.
Russian security services have raided the offices of the Wagner group, but it is unclear what will happen to Prigozhin’s extensive business operations around the world. Wagner soldiers will be offered the opportunity to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defenseas long as they did not directly participate in the insurrection.
![](https://www.eltiempo.com/images/1x1.png)
Wagner’s military blocked the streets of Rostov-on-Don.
Putin on the decline?
Putin has no one to blame but himself for the crisis. Prigozhin’s Wagner Group was created with his approval and driven by himself. This brigade of mercenaries became Putin’s tool to further Russia’s military and economic objectives without direct political or legal responsibility, initially in Donbas in eastern Ukraine in 2014, and later in Syria, Libya and elsewhere in Africa. .
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Only in July 2022, four months after the invasion of Ukraine, was Wagner officially recognized as fighting in the war. In the last six months he has played an increasingly prominent role, praised by the Russian media.
As his prestige grew, so did Prigozhin’s criticism of those around Putin. Starting in December 2022, he began to openly challenge the defense minister. On May 9, on the day that Russia commemorates the end of World War II, without directly criticizing the Russian president, he complained about the lack of ammunition for Wagner’s fighters and spoke of “a happy idiot grandfather”, in which was interpreted as a clear reference to Putin.
With this scenario, Putin’s reasons for not getting rid of Prigozhin are a mystery, as he inflicted significant damage on his benefactor once he became all-powerful. The exiled Russian journalist, Mikhail Zygar, goes even further, stating that the failed uprising exposed Putin as a “lame” president. Similarly, sociologist Vladislav Inozemtsev claims that “Putin is finished.”
Such final judgments are premature. Putin is a shrewd politician and has shown his ability to adapt and survive in the past. However, Wagner’s uprising exposed the cracks in his government and weakened his image as the undisputed leader. The long-term consequences of this crisis remain to be seen.
PETER RUTLAND
THE CONVERSATION (**)
Professor of Government at Wesleyan University and associated with the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University.
(**) The Conversation is a non-profit organization that seeks to share ideas and academic knowledge with the public. This article is reproduced here under a Creative Commons license.
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