December 2023 will probably be the mildest on the long-term average. But the dream of a snow-covered Christmas should not be written off just yet.
Munich – From a global perspective, 2023 will probably be the warmest year in recorded history. Nevertheless, many have not given up hope for a white Christmas. One of the reasons for this was the heavy snowfalls at the end of November and beginning of December 2023.
However, the current thaw weather with mild temperatures raises doubts as to whether there will actually be snow or even fall around Christmas Eve in Germany. Experts try their hand at early weather forecasts for the holidays.
Changed weather forecast: increased chance of a white Christmas
A high-low-high pattern over the Atlantic and Europe will play an important role in the next few weeks, says meteorologist Jan Schenk in Weather Talk. The decisive factor for possible snowfall will be where the high and low pressure areas are located. “This pattern is relatively set, but we don’t know exactly where it will be. Further west would mean a warm, green Christmas. Further east, however, it will most likely even be a white Christmas,” explains the weather expert.
It is not yet clear where the pattern will take shape around Christmas Eve. But according to Schenk, the forecast has already changed since the beginning of December. According to the meteorologist, the chances of a white Christmas were previously 20 to 30 percent likely, but now they are likely to be around 50 percent. According to Schenk, it is currently not possible to predict when a reliable forecast will be possible.
December too mild: Snow on Christmas Eve will be scarce
The current trend, however, remains mild and wet for now, predicts meteorologist Dominik Jung von Q.met opposite wetter.net: “Rain, mild air and melting snow cause a thaw. The snow is thawing happily right up to the peaks of the German low mountain ranges. There is almost nothing left of the snow masses in southern Bavaria.” From Thursday (December 14th) it will cool down a bit, but new snow is hardly in sight for the time being.
|Weather forecast for Germany
|Tuesday, December 12th
|4 to 13 degrees
|Wednesday December 13th
|3 to 10 degrees
|Thursday, December 14th
|3 to 8 degrees
|Friday, December 15th
|1 to 7 degrees
|Data: Dominic Jung/wetter.net
If Jung has his way, little will change between now and Christmas Eve: “Immediately before Christmas things will start to move,” says the weather expert. However, there are currently “no major snowfalls all the way down”: “Even in the mountains there will be a shortage of a white Christmas,” says Jung. According to the meteorologist, it still looks like December will be around one to two degrees warmer than the average between 1991 and 2020.
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